[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Eric the meek]

How might the war end? Five scenarios - James Landale, BBC

Amid the fog of war, it can be hard to see the way forward. Here are some potential outcomes. Most are bleak.

1. Short war
Russia ramps up its military operations with devastating attacks. Thousands die, Kyiv falls, Ukraine's president is killed or flees, and Russia installs a pro-Moscow puppet regime. This would be an unstable outcome, vulnerable to insurgency and future conflict.

2. Long war
Perhaps more likely. Maybe Russian forces get bogged down, with low morale and poor logistics. They may struggle to control even captured cities. Over time, Ukraine's forces become an effective insurgency, while the West continues to supply weapons. Perhaps after many years, Russia eventually leaves.

3. European war
Putin could send troops into ex-Soviet republics like Moldova and Georgia, that are not part of Nato. Or there could just be miscalculation and escalation. Putin might take a risk if he felt it was the only way to save his leadership - if he faced defeat, he might be tempted to escalate further.

4. Diplomatic solution
By already agreeing to talks - even if they haven't made much progress - Putin seems to at least have accepted the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire. If the war goes badly for him, Putin may judge that continuing is a greater leadership threat than the humiliation of ending it.

5. Putin ousted
It might seem unthinkable. Yet the world has changed in recent days. If the war is disastrous for Russia, there may be the threat of popular revolution. And if those who have benefited from Putin no longer think he can defend their interests, such an outcome may not be implausible.

There's a longer version here.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60602936

 

[Questions]

What with the UKs help in fashioning the sanctions against Russia I do hope that the Ukrainians remember it come the voting at the next Eurovision song contest

 

[Simster]

What with the UKs help in fashioning the sanctions against Russia I do hope that the Ukrainians remember it come the voting at the next Eurovision song contest

The good news is that Russia and Belarus have both been booted out of that competition. If Ukraine can just get a couple more nations kicked out before the next one, we might just have a chance of a top 20 finish.

 

[Gabbafella]

£2291. Thats how much weve raised so far with the help of our very generous friends, customers and fellow BHA fans. Oksana and I are very humbled by your generosity and kind words. Spent today loading things on to pallets (and emptying Asda of Duvets) ready to be driven to Poland on Monday. 1000s of nappies, Baby milk, Baby wipes, Baby Powder, Shampoo and Bath. Shampoo, Handwash, shower gel, Sanitary towels, bandages, First Aid kits, Toilet rolls and Duvets. Still have some of the money left and will keep on collecting and will see what they say is the most urgent requirement and start to get things ready for the next shipment. Couldnt have done it without you. Today is the most pessimistic I have felt about the whole invasion. The first city captured. Much more aid will be needed in the near future.
View attachment 145700View attachment 145701View attachment 145702

https://www.justgiving.com/crowdfunding/helpforukraine2?utm_term=3MmvwpEY5

Doing an amazing job, keep going.

 

[The Wizard]

On the face of it, it seems highly illogical and outright weird for a man who is absolutely petrified of death and illness, has made himself essentially a target to anyone, even an insider in his circle.

I feel like what makes Putin especially dangerous is his well known stubbornness, if he were in a position where his troops were failing I think he’d prefer to watch the world burn (or turn into radioactive dust) than concede

 

[Chicken Run]

Millions - and as a socialist I utterly condemn the actions of the Stalinist regime.

Now -

will you join me in condemning the atrocities committed my Winston Churchill when he used poison gas on Kurds and Afghans in 1919 and when he ordered British troops supporting the White counter-revolution in Russia to drop poison gas bombs on peasnat villages supporting the Bolsheviks during the Russian Civil War ?

will you join with me in condemning the murder of innocent civilians, facilitated by the gvovernment of Ted Heath, by British troops in Ballymurphy in Belfast in August 1971 and in Derry on Bloody Sunday in January 1972?

Good old JRG, winning friends and influencing people I see [emoji2357]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

[heathgate]

You do realise he is buying oil and gas - the same as we still are?

Its military equipment that keeps Russia interested, plus the well publicised support by Pakistan of international, mostly anti-western terrorism.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

 

[WATFORD zero]

Good old JRG, winning friends and influencing people I see [emoji2357]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Rather than taking the piss, maybe you could give him some tips

#benice

 

[heathgate]

Yet proroguing parliament was being considered a genuine option in order to force through their wishes without pesky democracy getting in the way. No uncomfortable thoughts there.

Preroguing is an actual legal process given the right set of circumstances and justification.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

 

[heathgate]

Correct. Russia have already invaded the part of Moldova that they call Transnistria, so how can they invade it again?

P.S. Why are you being so defensive? (I'm not arguing, I'm not saying etc).

Moldova will go,.. its non Nato, it's a traditional Russo-sympathetic society.... once they shoot past Odessa...

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

 

[Seasider78]

Really heart warming to see this practical response in Berlin to people in need

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1499247965168619522?s=21

 

[Albion in the north]

If its any consolation I spent the whole of yesterday helping in our local town hall where we were sorting stuff that was being donated by the locals. The flow of individuals was constant bringing everything from second hand clothes and blankets etc to brand new items people had purchased to bring along.

There were also lots of food stuffs, baby milks toothbrushes etc. We boxed up everything
and four large van loads were dispatched to a nearby hub which was collating everything from the local communities for onward transmission to Southampton. This was then to be further moved into articulated vehicles for onward dispatch to the Ukraine/Polish border.

This went on for 3 days in our small town alone. Assuming the rest of the country and others are following a similar process then hopefully this will go some way to helping the war effort for the people at the sharp end. I have to say I was quite up lifted by the enormous response from the public in what was a relentless procession of people bringing goods.

Depending on how things progress it is likely this will happen again in the near future and as long as it is required by those in need

Thats great fella. There is someone, somewhere whos life has been made a little better by you giving your time like that.

 

[heathgate]

Turkey's regime have gone up in my estimation, although be it tentatively as their leader is pretty batshit crazy himself.

Turkey is Nato, so needs to keep cosy with the west or risk more challenges from Russia on its border through Georgia and in the Black Sea.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

 

[Jolly Red Giant]

Seriously **** off Putin fan boy.

Seriously - and you got that from my condemnation of the actions of Russia

He's Irish and has an Irish/anti British agenda.

I am Irish by accident of birth - my grandmother was a Ramsey from Liverpool, my wife is half English and my father and mother were both born pre-Irish independence as British citizens. I am not and never have been a supporter of Irish nationalism or republicanism and I am not anti-British. I am a socialist, an internationalist and an anti-imperialist.

Now - back to the topic at hand - Russia's invasion of Ukraine is an imperialist power-grab by the regime of oligarchs led by Putin. They have adopted this approach for a variety of reasons, among which are the expansion by NATO into Eastern Europe, the attempts by the EU to bring Ukraine into therir sphere of influence and the efforts by the USA to establish military bases in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. The reality that a significant proportion of the population of the Ukraine (more than 8 million people) are ethnic Russians cannot be ignored, nor the efforts by sections of the far-right in Ukraine to drive ethnic Russians out of the country.

This conflict will not be resolved by sanctions (which are a form of warfare) or by NATO intervention - in fact both are likely to make the situation far worse. It requires a mass anti-war movement based on solidarity and unity of working class people, globally, but specifically in Russia. Such a mass movement is capable of developing into a mass organised opposition to Putin's regime. Unfortunately, imperialist wars and imperialist power-grabs are part and parcel of capitalism - it cannot be avoided in a system based on exploitation and oppression.

 

[Albion in the north]

May I ask how expensive it is to get this to Poland, where it's needed? I was shocked to see a van being loaded in Leeds, which they said would cost £2k to get to the refugees. They went on to say it was better for people to donate money, rather than items, which could be spent locally, rather than driven such a long way.

The transport is being covered by a Polish guy that owns a haulage company driving to Poland regularly. I did offer to pay but he refused to take it. So the answer to the question is, Ive no idea. However, if people are generous enough to give money to this cause then, personally, I would rather them see what their money is spent on. I feel that people want to know where their money is going. Yes, I could donate £2k to the Red Cross who do amazing work but its definitely a harder sell to get people to donate. Everytime I have posted those pictures of the items we have paid for, we get a flurry of donations (Thanks for each and every one of them). Maybe the extra revenue raised by showing what people are "getting for their money" offsets the savings made by donating direct, makes people feel better etc? I know personally, I have never felt more helpless in a situation. I am ex military and my wife and I have both said that if we were 10 years younger then we would both be on a plane to go and help directly but the next best thing is what we are trying to do now. Each person should do what they feel comfortable with. Pray for Ukraine if thats your thing, dont if thats also your thing, give money to the Red Cross or any of the other large charities that will be working over there. Its more important to do something than to do nothing.

 

[rogersix]

It doesn't actually say they are still taking Russian money.

They could be of course, but that's not what the article nor the report it relates to says, as it relates to donations made between October and December 2021.

You'd have to wait for the release of the Q1 2022 report to know whether they are doing so currently.

when does that happen?

 

[Albion in the north]

Couldnt do it without the support of people like you, Dazzer

 

[Boys 9d]

Further to my posting #3379, my Polish friend now informs me that another uncle who lives in Germany drove a large van from there to the Ukraine border with medical supplies. He was allowed to cross the border and deliver aid to wounded soldiers. He then collected 12 refugees including children and taken them back to Germany.

 

[Albion in the north]

Doing an amazing job, keep going.

Thanks fella. Its nice to be nice.

 

[Bry Nylon]

So you are happy to condemn the actions of the Russian army in Ukraine - but not the atrocities committed by the British Army - fair enough - says it all really.

This thread is focused on Putin’s war against Ukraine and the clear and present danger he poses to the rest of the world. If you want to start a new thread about the historical actions of the British army or Winston Churchill then go ahead but you won’t be permitted to derail this one.

Thanks.