[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[fly high]

Ukraine can still win.

Need that fingers crossed emoji again.

 

[raymondo]

A positive (ish) from one of our ex military leaders:

 

[Rdodge30]

So you're completely on board with Trump's plan

And given that the US had National Guard troops actually in Ukraine training the Ukrainians, which they withdrew days before Russia invaded, I don't see why a few US contractors would stop Putin this time round.

My point was that Zelenskyy is far more on board with Trump’s plan than people here seem to be aware of. The mineral deal was originally Zelenskyy’s proposal - The mineral deal is central to a fund to rebuild Ukraine- Zelenskyy was in the White House to sign a framework document for the deal - Zelenskyy has said since the White House meeting he is prepared to sign the deal.

 

[Seasider78]

The US will pull aid to try and strong arm a deal, Europe feel (rightly) with US backing and security guarantees that they can force a much fairer outcome for Ukraine but this is not what Trump wants. He wants his deal which keeps his chum Putin happy and puts significant profits (way beyond the US contribution) back into the US to plug huge voids in their finances.

If Europe hold the line on Ukraine Trump will sulk and react with aid withdrawal and possibly threats of leaving NATO. Siding with the Russians, ditching allies, combined with the negative consequence his tarriffs will have on both the US economy and fuelling rampant inflation could be enough to see some serious political pressure from within.

Let’s not forget he is presenting all of this as a big rip off and that money will be going back into American pockets but when the reverse plays out the game is up.

 

[raymondo]

Positive from a Republican to Politico.


Lawmakers from both parties expressed concern about Trump’s move (to cut off aid) on Monday evening.

“Too bad Iran, North Korea and China are not pausing their military aid and economic support,” said Rep. Don Bacon, a Nebraska Republican, to POLITICO. “There is an invader and a victim, there is a democracy and a dictatorship, there is a country who wants to be part of the West and one who hates the West. We should be unambiguously for the good side.”

Do we know, does the Trump decision on aid have to go through Congress?

 

[Half Time Pies]

I don't get why we need a European military, surely that's what NATO is there for, except maybe to bring in countries that are not in NATO? If we create a European military, I'm convinced Trump will pull out of NATO immediately. He will then tell the yanks how many billions he has saved them...

With Trump in charge NATO is effectively already finished. The alliance relies on the unequivocal support from within it and from the biggest powers, it's built on trust. You currently have 2 members within it that effectively veto everything because of their support for Putin, and a US president that told us all that Europe is no longer a priority and has cast serious doubt on whether, when push comes to shove, he would jump to the defence of anyone except for Poland (because of their military spending).

The international realm is anarchic, countries can sign treaties but there is no overarching body making sure that they uphold them, this is left to individual countries to enforce. In this realm words really do matter, and there will now be a deep mistrust of Trump and the US which will lead many countries to realign themselves, not just in Europe but elsewhere such as Asia where traditional allies of the US will be wondering who's next in the firing line. If the US still has long term strategic aims then I expect this will be detrimental to them in the long run.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

 

[peterward]

Do we know, does the Trump decision on aid have to go through Congress?

I don't know mate..... its basically stopping deliveries of aid that already has been funded and was/is being manufactured.

I think I read it was 3.5B of ordered stuff (that will now be blocked) plus another 1.4B extra available funding, as yet unallocated to order more stuff. Just under 5B total.

I'd guess I'd there was any legal mechanism to challenge its stopping it would be made by a democrat

 

[peterward]

My point was that Zelenskyy is far more on board with Trump’s plan than people here seem to be aware of. The mineral deal was originally Zelenskyy’s proposal - The mineral deal is central to a fund to rebuild Ukraine- Zelenskyy was in the White House to sign a framework document for the deal - Zelenskyy has said since the White House meeting he is prepared to sign the deal.

No, Zelenskys original floating of idea was in his "victory plan"..... access to Ukraines mineral resources for ongoing military support and security guarantees


Trump has since demanded 500B for backpayment of max circa 150B, without any redress or promise of ongoing military support and explicitly stating no guarantees.

And he's trying to railroad Zelensky into that.

Payback more for what you've had so far and nothing concrete going forward except "trust me bro" and "trust my Russian bro"

 

[raymondo]

Blimey...and guess who will decide which protests are illegal

 

[Flounce]

I know it’s ridiculous and it’s beyond belief but I can’t help feeling that Trump is in Putin’s pocket and a supporter of the Russian ongoing genocide. I am totally unable to get my head around what he and his cronies are doing.

I know he wants the minerals but at any cost to Ukraine? It seems so.

 

[Eric the meek]

Was that one created by that public relations consultant Trump used after he kicked Zelensky out of the Oval Office?

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Blimey...and guess who will decide which protests are illegal

First they came for the immigrants
Then they came for the students.

 

[raymondo]

I think Australia needs to seriously consider withdrawal from the Aukus project - declare themselves neutral in the Pacific and write long term mineral deals with China.
Then the UK can pull out.
If the US wants to fight China let them do it by themselves - there is a long term danger that the US would drag UK and Oz into that.
Three years on this thread has taught me I'm not great at geopolitics or diplomacy... happy to be corrected.

 

[raymondo]

First they came for the immigrants
Then they came for the students.

Hopefully foreign student applications tank.

 

[raymondo]

I'm surprised it's still legal to protest outside Tesla dealerships.
(No offence meant to current Tesla owners, seriously - if I'd had the money a year ago I'd probably have bought one.)

 

[Thunder Bolt]

I know it’s ridiculous and it’s beyond belief but I can’t help feeling that Trump is in Putin’s pocket and a supporter of the Russian ongoing genocide. I am totally unable to get my head around what he and his cronies are doing.

I know he wants the minerals but at any cost to Ukraine? It seems so.

This chap is a former US Ambassador to Russia (2012-2014)

 

[raymondo]

I don't know mate..... its basically stopping deliveries of aid that already has been funded and was/is being manufactured.

I think I read it was 3.5B of ordered stuff (that will now be blocked) plus another 1.4B extra available funding, as yet unallocated to order more stuff. Just under 5B total.

I'd guess I'd there was any legal mechanism to challenge its stopping it would be made by a democrat

Given the past three weeks I currently can't imagine anything going to Congress for a decision. They're all redundant, or making themselves so.
(Thanks for the details )

 

[beorhthelm]

No, Zelenskys original floating of idea was in his "victory plan"..... access to Ukraines mineral resources for ongoing military support and security guarantees


Trump has since demanded 500B for backpayment of max circa 150B, without any redress or promise of ongoing military support and explicitly stating no guarantees.

And he's trying to railroad Zelensky into that.

Payback more for what you've had so far and nothing concrete going forward except "trust me bro" and "trust my Russian bro"

as far as i could tell the "mineral deal" is near to the Ukrainian suggestion, essentially use some put up future revenue (current explicitly exempted) as a surety on future investment. it talks of reconstuction, not arms. the "500bn" has quietly gone away because everyone knows that was nonsense. a lot of details seem lost, blurred or twisted between media reporting and Trump brain farts.

 

[Triggaaar]

Another piece of the blackmail to persuade Zelensky to sign the minerals deal whilst getting nothing in return. IMO it's critical that Zelensky does NOT sign that deal until and unless he gets firm security guarantees from the US and confirmation that there will be no negotiations with Russia without Ukraine's involvement.

I don't mind if the deal is signed as long as it incudes a clause that Ukraine can buy US weapons. While security guarantees would be nice, if they're not on offer, then weapons will allow Ukraine to protect themselves.

If they can't buy weapons, then they get absolutely nothing for signing, so there's no point.