[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[raymondo]

Ukraine has enough stashed weaponry to fight another year allegedly. Not sure if that included already agreed aid that's been stopped.

Cutting off US satellite intelligence would be devastating.

But don't underestimate Ukrainains. They repelled Russia when then only had anti tank weapons. They will fight to the death.

Most of Ukraine won't be lost.

I heard 6 months supply on radio this morning. But, if Russia attacks on all fronts then Ukraine's reserves will run out faster.

 

[vegster]

I don't get why we need a European military, surely that's what NATO is there for, except maybe to bring in countries that are not in NATO? If we create a European military, I'm convinced Trump will pull out of NATO immediately. He will then tell the yanks how many billions he has saved them...

He's going to pull the plug, it's not if but when. We need a new alignment across Europe including Scandinavia and whoever in Eastern Europe will want to join. We also should begin discussions about getting rid of US airbases in the UK and Europe. No point in having unreliable partners on our soil.

 

[Bodian]

It’s important to remember that the mineral deal with the U.S. was Zelenskyy’s idea

It’s also important to understand that after initial dispute the financial terms of the mineral deal have provisionally been agreed by both sides.

The stalling point is Military and U.S. provision of security for Ukraine

I don’t understand all the talk on here of America robbing Ukraine

The initial proposal to exchange mineral rights for aid may well have come from Zelensky. But I don't think that was the 'deal' that was then drafted by the US and is now being forced upon Ukraine.

Interesting. I'm thinking there won't be a ceasefire, because Putin wouldn't agree to one unless it benefitted him, and if it benefits him then it's bad for Ukraine. But maybe the West will put too much pressure on Zelenskyy and he'll feel he has to. It would be a bad decision for him though.

I don't see why there can't be negotiations whilst the guns are firing.

There can't be a ceasefire unless both sides agree, Putin isn't going to agree unless, as you say, it benefits him. We haven't heard anything from Trump about what he has agreed with Putin ceasefire-wise.

 

[raymondo]

It'll not be America First but instead America Alone when their war with China starts.

It's almost as if this is a plan.

It's really hard to think ahead for what's going to happen.

He's going to pull the plug, it's not if but when. We need a new alignment across Europe including Scandinavia and whoever in Eastern Europe will want to join. We also should begin discussions about getting rid of US airbases in the UK and Europe. No point in having unreliable partners on our soil.

I believe NATO is already dead - if Russia invaded Lithuania tomorrow and article 5 was triggered, I firmly believe the US would do nothing.

 

[sparkie]

It's really hard to think ahead for what's going to happen.



I believe NATO is already dead - if Russia invaded Lithuania tomorrow and article 5 was triggered, I firmly believe the US would do nothing.

President Krasnov would babble about avoiding WWIII and that would be that.

 

[raymondo]

As a side 'issue' there's this Aukus thing, a trilateral agreement between the US, Australia, UK to police the Indopacific ,- i.e. stop China.
Australia has to acquire nuclear subs, and the US and UK will rotate theirs in and out of the region.
Oz government agreed to this incredibly expensive project, but much of the population is against it.
Seems it'll be all about Australia's minerals next.
China's recent war games with live ammunition in the Tasman Sea a few days back.
Trump won't prise Putin away from Xi.

 

[peterward]

 

[raymondo]

So, Trump and Vance spend the weekend playing golf and skiing, and think up their next vindictive move.
Zelenskiy flies to UK and joins most of Europe discussing how to defend real lives and democracy.

 

[Triggaaar]

I don’t understand all the talk on here of America robbing Ukraine

For a start, the US gave Ukraine under 200 billion, but asked for 500 billion in return with no security guarantees.

 

[raymondo]

It's a quick response, and presumably much if not all of that was decided before Trump pulled the plug on supplies.

 

[raymondo]

He's going to pull the plug, it's not if but when. We need a new alignment across Europe including Scandinavia and whoever in Eastern Europe will want to join. We also should begin discussions about getting rid of US airbases in the UK and Europe. No point in having unreliable partners on our soil.

Even worse @vegster is the possibility (, likelihood?) that Trump doesn't pull the plug on NATO but then doesn't support article 5 if triggered - and he will have advised Putin as such.

 

[Eric the meek]

(Sorry if I'm playing catch-up).

I'm finding it difficult to get my head round the extent to which the Kremlin has inveigled its way into influencing - perhaps driving - policy decisions in the White House.

Much earlier in the war, in the autumn of 2022, I reported on an article by the think tank, Royal United Services Institute, in which it predicted an increase in activity on other fronts as Russia found limited success on the battlefield. The passage of time has shown that the RUSI report was correct, but that it didn't convey the extraordinary magnitude of the increase in activity that was to come.

That thread about Elon Musk. Holy moly.
Completely unelected, he appeared in the White House, got the DOGE and is influencing policy at the centre of US government.

But it's that thread. Post 22,785.

 

[Brian Munich]

Sorry, I wasted my time doing that for you about Brexit, then Johnson, then Farage all to no avail, and now you want me to tell you why you shouldn't back Trump ? I'm not getting caught like that again

Correct response. You cannot reason with stupidity like him.

 

[beorhthelm]

(Sorry if I'm playing catch-up).

I'm finding it difficult to get my head round the extent to which the Kremlin has inveigled its way into influencing - perhaps driving - policy decisions in the White House.

Much earlier in the war, in the autumn of 2022, I reported on an article by the think tank, Royal United Services Institute, in which it predicted an increase in activity on other fronts as Russia found limited success on the battlefield. The passage of time has shown that the RUSI report was correct, but that it didn't convey the extraordinary magnitude of the increase in activity that was to come.

That thread about Elon Musk. Holy moly.
Completely unelected, he appeared in the White House, got the DOGE and is influencing policy at the centre of US government.

But it's that thread. Post 22,785.

you need to undestand that for Trump/MAGA movement Ukraine is a sideshow. their major policy focus is on reducing the size and expense of the federal state. they say this openly and often. DOGE is a means to that end, they are signed up to the objective and Elon gives them a vehicle to deliver. spending on overseas conflict is money they can save, so another cutting it is another means to the ends. eventually they start cutting actual military expediture, affecting jobs, corporate revenues, and there will be a rude awakening just what the ends mean. along the way they'll blow up the US economy with tariff fuelled inflation. the only saving grace is Trump is doing this so early, the effects will be seen and reaction against them soon. expect major policy reversal within 6mths.

 

[pb21]

their major policy focus is on reducing the size and expense of the federal state.

That’s certainly how it’s being sold, but are MAGAs buying what they think they are?

 

[raymondo]

Blimey.

What a thread.

It's in plain sight now, but Musk and Trump will deny it.
I look forward to Ukraine droning Tesla factories in Russia one day.

 

[SouthSaxon]

Macron and Starmer weren’t set up in their meetings though. I have no idea how Macron would have reacted if he was and I suggest Starmer would not have fared well if he had been though. Trump and Vance have no shame so they don’t give a shit how they came out of their meeting with Zelensky.

You’re right. Starmer and Macron know this too and have worked hard to avoid it. They have less at stake than Zelenskyy which makes that easier.

Trump and Vance had pre-determined that they needed to give Zelenskyy a dressing down. Why? Because Zelenskyy is trying to use persuasion, and is not backing down, which the narcissist sees as a threat to their control.

What we saw in those three meetings is the culmination of what’s happened in preceding months.

That doesn’t mean Zelenskyy should have just caved in. Starmer did not - he recognised that the only way to work with Trump is to be transactional, and used that to his advantage with the state visit offer.

The bully that needs standing up to at this moment is Putin. It’s tragic that he has the key player in his pocket. I really don’t think that’s because of embarrassing videos, it’s because he knows how to pander to Trump’s narcissism and has been doing it for a very long time.

 

[Eric the meek]

you need to undestand that for Trump/MAGA movement Ukraine is a sideshow. their major policy focus is on reducing the size and expense of the federal state. they say this openly and often. DOGE is a means to that end, they are signed up to the objective and Elon gives them a vehicle to deliver. spending on overseas conflict is money they can save, so another cutting it is another means to the ends. eventually they start cutting actual military expediture, affecting jobs, corporate revenues, and there will be a rude awakening just what the ends mean. along the way they'll blow up the US economy with tariff fuelled inflation. the only saving grace is Trump is doing this so early, the effects will be seen and reaction against them soon. expect major policy reversal within 6mths.

'expect major policy reversal within 6mths'.

It is quite possible that you are right. US big tech stocks have tanked just recently. Those elements in my pension/ISA holdings have fallen by some 8% from their peak a few weeks ago.

Trump's America 'Furst' policy is looking as though it is backfiring already.

 

[raymondo]

Its as if for Trump, getting the grovelling apology is almost as important as getting the minerals deal.

That's Trump showing the emotions of a young teenager (sorry, no offense to teenagers).
No, actually it's part of the theatre of demeaning Zelenskiy, making him look weak.

 

[peterward]

Also on DT thread.