[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Deportivo Seagull]

My point was that Zelenskyy is far more on board with Trump’s plan than people here seem to be aware of. The mineral deal was originally Zelenskyy’s proposal - The mineral deal is central to a fund to rebuild Ukraine- Zelenskyy was in the White House to sign a framework document for the deal - Zelenskyy has said since the White House meeting he is prepared to sign the deal.

Yes for a deal that would work for the Ukraine and the US however Trump isn’t interested in that, He wants it all but with the way Europe is gearing up he could end up with very little.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

I don't know mate..... its basically stopping deliveries of aid that already has been funded and was/is being manufactured.

I think I read it was 3.5B of ordered stuff (that will now be blocked) plus another 1.4B extra available funding, as yet unallocated to order more stuff. Just under 5B total.

I'd guess I'd there was any legal mechanism to challenge its stopping it would be made by a democrat

The US arms manufacturers are very powerful and won’t be happy that their cash cow has been stopped. I suspect they’ll have a quiet word….

 

[Flounce]

This chap is a former US Ambassador to Russia (2012-2014)

Has Trump condemned the Russian invasion and random killing of civilians even once? Not that I’ve seen and that is f***ing scary to me.

 

[Sirnormangall]

…..but the sort of protest such as the 6th Jan 01 riot and attack on the Capitol building is fine

 

[highflyer]

I think Australia needs to seriously consider withdrawal from the Aukus project - declare themselves neutral in the Pacific and write long term mineral deals with China.
Then the UK can pull out.
If the US wants to fight China let them do it by themselves - there is a long term danger that the US would drag UK and Oz into that.
Three years on this thread has taught me I'm not great at geopolitics or diplomacy... happy to be corrected.

Without pretending to be an expert my view is that the one's laughing hardest at all this are not the Russians (who will be pretty happy of course) but the Chinese. They will be the winners in the long term. And they tend to be the only ones thinking and planning long term. They have been working to build soft power across the globe and secure access to resources for decades. The various debacles now playing out will be strengthening their hold and absolutely stinks of desperation from Trump and Co, to secure access to whatever's left, whilst happily burning through any soft power they may previously have held (by acting like untrustworthy dicks in public and withdrawing aid at a rate guaranteed to be catastrophic) just to keep the gurning redneck maga masses happy. In geoplitical terms it's a strategic dumpster fire though I have no doubt they are still thinking of themselves as geniuses. The utter twats.

 

[peterward]

I think Australia needs to seriously consider withdrawal from the Aukus project - declare themselves neutral in the Pacific and write long term mineral deals with China.
Then the UK can pull out.
If the US wants to fight China let them do it by themselves - there is a long term danger that the US would drag UK and Oz into that.
Three years on this thread has taught me I'm not great at geopolitics or diplomacy... happy to be corrected.

To the first part, on removing themselves from Aukus, may make good sense as US are compromised and you dont want your secrets or intelligence going to China via Russia or any other method.

As for minerals, China doesnt need them, and Id be very careful about getting in bed in shape or form with China who are also a very nefarious and dishonest dictatorship.

Europe will buy their minerals.

 

[highflyer]

To the first part, on removing themselves from Aukus, may make good sense as US are compromised and you dont want your secrets or intelligence going to China via Russia or any other method.

As for minerals, China doesnt need them, and Id be very careful about getting in bed in shape or form with China who are also a very nefarious and dishonest dictatorship.

Europe will buy their minerals.

Bit late. China is already Australia's largest two way trading partner and the 5th largest foreign direct investor. And that relationship is only heading in one direction.

 

[ROSM]

When has Western Europe ever won a fight without the US help. Not for several hundred years when the world was a very different place. We need them. That’s the reality.

Falklands?

 

[raymondo]

To the first part, on removing themselves from Aukus, may make good sense as US are compromised and you dont want your secrets or intelligence going to China via Russia or any other method.

As for minerals, China doesnt need them, and Id be very careful about getting in bed in shape or form with China who are also a very nefarious and dishonest dictatorship.

Europe will buy their minerals.

I meant commodities really: Oz already exports iron ore, gold, gas, copper, coal to China, and I believe there are joint business ventures in the pipeline.
Nefarious, yes, but a big trading partner of Oz already.

 

[SeagullinExile]

The US arms manufacturers are very powerful and won’t be happy that their cash cow has been stopped. I suspect they’ll have a quiet word….

.....with a high powered sniper rifle in Dallas probably

 

[raymondo]

I need a chuckle sometimes...

 

[raymondo]

The US arms manufacturers are very powerful and won’t be happy that their cash cow has been stopped. I suspect they’ll have a quiet word….

But they've already heard Trump say he wants to reduce the defense budget by 50%... I didn't read any serious pushback

 

[SouthSaxon]

To the first part, on removing themselves from Aukus, may make good sense as US are compromised and you dont want your secrets or intelligence going to China via Russia or any other method.

The same applies to Five Eyes intelligence sharing, one of the eyes has picked up a nasty infection.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

But they've already heard Trump say he wants to reduce the defense budget by 50%... I didn't read any serious pushback

They are all on the stock exchange and results affect the share price which affects dividends. They’ll not be happy. The other thing that will piss them off is that Europe is a big customer of theirs But with the anti US feelings and the desire for Europe to go it alone I can see much of the military investment being target within Europe.
Their bottom line is going to take a kicking….

 

[studio150]

Masterplan by Trump.

Stops American military aid going to Ukraine to place more pressure on Ukraine to sign the Rare Earth Mineral agreement, but overlooks the increased chance of Russia rolling forward and occupying the whole of Ukraine, given that their ability to fight back is reduced. Thereby Russia get all the minerals and America loses out completely.

This of course could have been the plan all along from Comrade Trump.

 

[SouthSaxon]

They are all on the stock exchange and results affect the share price which affects dividends. They’ll not be happy. The other thing that will piss them off is that Europe is a big customer of theirs But with the anti US feelings and the desire for Europe to go it alone I can see much of the military investment being target within Europe.
Their bottom line is going to take a kicking….

They’ll all be insider trading, Shirley?

 

[Triggaaar]

When has Western Europe ever won a fight without the US help. Not for several hundred years when the world was a very different place. We need them. That’s the reality.

What fights has Western Europe lost?

 

[beorhthelm]

But they've already heard Trump say he wants to reduce the defense budget by 50%... I didn't read any serious pushback

because it's not come yet and they dont believe it will. a 50% defence cut would probably lead to immediate recession, 7-10% spending disappears.

 

[peterward]

If you've got the time, I'd highly recommend today's "rest is politics" with Katty Kay and Anthony Scaramucci. Its shuddering stuff, and quite a lot of direct inside info from sources inside US/European politics.

 

[raymondo]

They are all on the stock exchange and results affect the share price which affects dividends. They’ll not be happy. The other thing that will piss them off is that Europe is a big customer of theirs But with the anti US feelings and the desire for Europe to go it alone I can see much of the military investment being target within Europe.
Their bottom line is going to take a kicking….

I sure hope so. Better not buy any US weapons where there's an alternative. Need those alternative air defense missiles too,- I have no idea if there are alternative third party missiles for Patriots for e.g.