[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Deportivo Seagull]

I don’t profess to be as knowledgeable about modern warfare, military strategy, the potential small task force deployment arrangements or current casualty rates in the Ukraine/Russian war as you evidently do.

Again, I’m not going to split hairs, i don’t think the country has the stomach for mass military casualties even close to that which Ukraine may say they have. Anything close to 50 dead/150 wounded per week for a few months and its game over in my view.

For that matter I don’t think Western Europe does.

I may be wrong, but that’s simply a difference of opinion between 2 posters on a message board for a provincial English football team. You know that’s all it is right?

no that is certainly clear, you know nothing about modern warfare.

For the record NO country has the stomach for mass military casualties but when push comes to shove then countries invariably step up.

Russia is having to use prisoners, North Koreans and wounded troops to maintain their present position. This is what’s commonly known as being f***ed.

 

[raymondo]

Just read the Norwegian wealth fund is under pressure to sell it's Tesla shares...but won't announce it until it's done...oops

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Have a look at this.... Will need to hit translate at bottom. It's from Denis Danilov, a prominent Ukrainian political scientist, who is followed by many of the Ukrainian accounts we follow like Gerashenko etc.

He says a Finnish MEP has said, Trump has advised Europe they have 3 weeks to force Ukraines capitulation to Russia or else US is pulling out of Europe?

It sounds fantastical, or does it anymore?

Hopefully the door will hit him on the arse on the way out. It’s a threat and nothing more. I can’t see the US military standing for thi.

 

[peterward]

US pulling out of Europe in what way?? Close bases? Troops out of the Baltic?

Yeah I still can't believe that could happen, not yet anyway..... if there is any truth in the Finnish MEP comments, it was probably a threat for Trump to try and get what he wants....

Possibly 85%+ of US senators and Congressman are still pro European as allies and see Putin for who he really is, even if they can't say it as republicans.

I just don't see Trump having that much political weight he could pull it off without unbelievable opposition, domestically and from Europe.

US would become outcasts and pariahs overnight.

 

[peterward]

That’s a no from me. The cost in a power alone to implement NS would cripple the army.

And the solution to a revanchist Russia being partnered by a rogue US that turns its back on NATO/Europe is?

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

And the solution to a revanchist Russia being partnered by a rogue US that turns its back on NATO/Europe is?

The US arming Russia would be suicidal and the US military are very aware of that.

 

[peterward]

The US arming Russia would be suicidal and the US military are very aware of that.

There's a putchist purge going on right now, with yes men being installed underneath the ex fox news anchor yes man Hegseth.

It may not come to fruition, but I genuinely believe Trump is trying to take full control of all apparatus of state.

If he succeeds it could well happen.

 

[Shins]

It says in it that it's for the whole of Ukraine, and not just for metals, but for oil and gas. Anything inside the Russian controlled area the US get more money.

It's just daft.

Ukraine need to be strong. Maybe highlight that they don't understand whose side the US is on. If the US in on Russia's side, why is the US offering Ukraine a deal? If it's on Ukraine's side, why is it claiming that Russia aren't the aggressor, and labelling Zelenskyy a dictator?

I think they should either put off signing a deal, or get the deal changed, or sign it with no intention of honouring it.

If they do sign as they feel as though that's their final chance of saving their country, I'm hoping that Democrats come out and immediately say they will tear up the deal should they come into power again. And pay them back some for the years of extortion under Trump. Hopefully this never comes to pass though.

Obviously for them to say that now would weaken Ukrainian's negotiating power.

 

[marlowe]

But that's not relevant. If a contract isn't legally valid if coercion is used, then the coercion towards a defeated country would make treaties null and void too. There's not a caveat in international law that means 'coercion makes contracts void, unless the country is defeated'.

But reparations being imposed on the defeated aggressor does not constitute a contract. Those conditions are imposed on the defeated party with little room for consent.

Its effectively the same as a fine being imposed for commiting an offence such as speeding. Just because the fine has been imposed on you you wouldn't be able to argue in court that you were coerced into paying it. The only thing you could argue on appeal was that the verdict was incorrect or that the punishment was too harsh for the offence. But not coercion as the fine would not constitute a contract, just as reparations as part of a treaty do not constitute a contract in the reciprocal transactional sense.

But the proposed agreement between the US and Ukraine does constitute a contract.

 

[raymondo]

There's a putchist purge going on right now, with yes men being installed underneath the ex fox news anchor yes man Hegseth.

It may not come to fruition, but I genuinely believe Trump is trying to take full control of all apparatus of state.

If he succeeds it could well happen.

It's not impossible.
Also, if they sell F35s to India, then I read Russia will have the specs of all the tech within months.
Presumably Modi is another autocrat admired by Trump.

 

[SouthSaxon]

This is the thing for me, with Trump it’d be foolish to rule anything out. Especially as, currently, some (fairly) good people are quite prepared to do nothing.

Europe’s leaders need to try and get the best outcome they can. They have to do that fast because of Trump’s impatience.

At the same time, they can’t pin all their hopes on winning Trump round or that he’ll stick to his word at any point in any way.

 

[armchairclubber]

This is the thing for me, with Trump it’d be foolish to rule anything out. Especially as, currently, some (fairly) good people are quite prepared to do nothing.

Europe’s leaders need to try and get the best outcome they can. They have to do that fast because of Trump’s impatience.

At the same time, they can’t pin all their hopes on winning Trump round or that he’ll stick to his word at any point in any way.

Trump appears of unsound mind and full of lies.
He wants money back, which was given in the form of nothing. Right.
How anyone can do a deal with him I don't know, whether it be Starmer, Macron, Putin, Duda, Zelensky etc etc.
How can you do a deal with someone behaving like a moron, appearing maybe a little deranged, telling lies and who cannot be trusted?
And peace doesn't appear to be on the table. Even if it were its only his idea of peace.
Beats me.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

There's a putchist purge going on right now, with yes men being installed underneath the ex fox news anchor yes man Hegseth.

It may not come to fruition, but I genuinely believe Trump is trying to take full control of all apparatus of state.

If he succeeds it could well happen.

The army answers to the constitution and not the president or his yes man. It will be interesting.

 

[raymondo]

Because they have been threatened with losing access to Elon Musk’s Starlink if they don’t, and without that they’ll struggle to defend as effectively as they have done and Russia will have a huge advantage. Blackmailed into an impossible position.

Just watched video by Denys Davydov where he explains that shutting down starlink would equally affect Russia (along the shared front lines,). He also says there are European alternatives (maybe more expensive) whereas Russia doesn't have any good alternative.

I'm not technical enough to judge the truth of what he says.

 

[raymondo]

This is the thing for me, with Trump it’d be foolish to rule anything out. Especially as, currently, some (fairly) good people are quite prepared to do nothing.

Europe’s leaders need to try and get the best outcome they can. They have to do that fast because of Trump’s impatience.

At the same time, they can’t pin all their hopes on winning Trump round or that he’ll stick to his word at any point in any way.

I agree with you, except the 'fast' bit. If Trump isn't offering security guarantees (IF that could be trusted) then take. your. time. Ukraine. Show Trump we have democratic process in Europe.
Sending strength to the Ukrainian parliament for Monday's session .

 

[raymondo]

Awesome

 

[SouthSaxon]

Trump appears of unsound mind and full of lies.
He wants money back, which was given in the form of nothing. Right.
How anyone can do a deal with him I don't know, whether it be Starmer, Macron, Putin, Duda, Zelensky etc etc.
How can you do a deal with someone behaving like a moron, appearing maybe a little deranged, telling lies and who cannot be trusted?
And peace doesn't appear to be on the table. Even if it were its only his idea of peace.
Beats me.

I don’t think it’s about Starmer, Macron etc trying to do their own deal with Trump, or get a better deal for Ukraine out of him.

Nothing Trump signs would be worth the paper it’s written on. The idea that he’ll have any interest in honouring conventions and memorandums signed in the ‘90s is also for the birds. His words and actions show he is no more to be trusted than Putin is.

What Europe can do is pull its finger out, stop faffing about and start making its own commitments to defence spending and its own agreements with Ukraine. That conflict can no longer be treated as something to contain or keep at arms length.

Strategically, it should seek to drive a wedge between Trump and Putin, but also assume it has to fully defend itself. That means a rapid increase in defence spending and a consistent strategy. It means that options to damage Russia’s ability to continue the war, that were not taken before for geopolitical reasons, need to be reexamined. Not in 2029 or 2030, this has to start happening now.

 

[raymondo]

Sometimes humour says it better:

 

[SouthSaxon]

I agree with you, except the 'fast' bit. If Trump isn't offering security guarantees (IF that could be trusted) then take. your. time. Ukraine. Show Trump we have democratic process in Europe.
Sending strength to the Ukrainian parliament for Monday's session .

I’ll clarify want I meant. They need to start showing Trump they are taking serious action and being “strong leaders” ASAP.

I suspect this is half of why Starmer has been so quick to say the UK is willing to put boots on the ground. (The other half to reassure Zelenskyy).

Trump hates democratic process, because it’s slow and boring. He sees the EU as the epitome of that.

We don’t have to become like Trump, but a more decisive, proactive democratic process is what’s needed.

 

[papachris]

Awesome

Ukrainians gather in Tallinn to mark anniversary of full-scale invasion

Ukraine needs the support of the Baltic states now more than ever, Ukrainian Ambassador to Estonia Maksym Kononenko said at a rally to mark the anniversary of the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

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