[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[cunning fergus]

It was you who wrongly interpreted the stat, which was pointed out to you. You incorrectly claimed that only 11% would fight for the UK, but the poll you linked to said that 11% would fight regardless of the reason, and plenty more (like half) would fight if they agreed with the reason.

You find a poll and then twist it and lie to fit your Russian propaganda narrative.

I’m not splitting hairs let’s say 50% of that generation want to fight regardless of reason, and they are all proper Herbert’s with biceps the size of Bournemouth. That still leaves the other 50% that won’t.

That equation will present the 50% that are willing to fight with a secondary factor in their decision making algorithm that will likely affect their will to fight.

Maybe the solution will be to coerce the 50% that won’t fight to fight………..but then that approach sounds a bit Russian doesn’t it.

 

[Triggaaar]

I’m not splitting hairs let’s say 50% of that generation want to fight regardless of reason, and they are all proper Herbert’s with biceps the size of Bournemouth. That still leaves the other 50% that won’t.

That equation will present the 50% that are willing to fight with a secondary factor in their decision making algorithm that will likely affect their will to fight.

Maybe the solution will be to coerce the 50% that won’t fight to fight………..but then that approach sounds a bit Russian doesn’t it.

I'm sorry I'm not sure what you're getting at?

In a democratic country (with free press etc) with a nice standard of living, people aren't generally going to want to fight. People have good lives, and war sucks, so why would they want to? That changes when their country is under attack.

I remember at 16 thinking my friend was mad for wanting to join the Army. I'm not brave and wouldn't want to be in a war. But if the UK was attacked, I'd want to fight to defend it (even if I'd be a bit shit).

I am also extremely pro democracy and anti dictator, so if I was in the age bracket (I'm not) being called up to defend Europe from Russia, I think I'd be willing to fight.

 

[cunning fergus]

You don't seem to understand the basics of how a war works. The Russian army is not (as you claim) united with one purpose. That doesn't mean they're all going to suddenly rout. The fact that they can hold on to their position is not an indicator of unity, it's more to do with the reality of defence against attack. There's also the fact that Russia has more troops and weapons than Ukraine (although the numerical advantage has reduced as the war has gone on), but again, that does not mean they're united.





I asked you this before but you dodged it: "Russia are taking 1,500 casualties a month. Ukraine are taking about 200 per month. If the UK were a small part of a European force, along with Ukraine, how do you figure that the UK would be taking over 4,000 casualties a month?"

Ukraine have 900,000 active personnel, and are losing a couple of hundred per month. So how do you suppose a small supporting force from the UK, maybe 3% of Ukraine's force),would be suffering several times as many casualties as Ukraine?

Why are you making up this nonsense?

I don’t profess to be as knowledgeable about modern warfare, military strategy, the potential small task force deployment arrangements or current casualty rates in the Ukraine/Russian war as you evidently do.

Again, I’m not going to split hairs, i don’t think the country has the stomach for mass military casualties even close to that which Ukraine may say they have. Anything close to 50 dead/150 wounded per week for a few months and its game over in my view.

For that matter I don’t think Western Europe does.

I may be wrong, but that’s simply a difference of opinion between 2 posters on a message board for a provincial English football team. You know that’s all it is right?

 

[SeagullinExile]

As much as I hate the f**king Orange cretin, a personal invitation to a state banquet with King Charles, if Trump changes course may not go amiss.

He loves all the pomp and pageantry

He can even wear his own crown

 

[Diablo]

Should this threads heading be changed to "Ukraine invades Russia" to appease our American friend

 

[Bodian]

Should this threads heading be changed to "Ukraine invades Russia" to appease our American friend

I don't know. But what I would like it not to become is a 'Defending Britain?' thread. So if @cunning fergus would like to start a different thread where they can play out their arguments on that topic it would be much appreciated. And leave this thread for those interested in the current conflict.

 

[Eric the meek]

Can someone rationalise this please?

Is this Trumps preparation for the US talks with Russia?

 

[Triggaaar]

I don’t profess to be as knowledgeable about modern warfare, military strategy

You don't need to be an expert to realise that Russia holding its lines does not equate to proof of unity. If you watch some of the videos coming from Russian soldiers, you'll see they are far from united (unless you count that they're united against Putin). They don't want to be there, they don't understand why they are there, they want to go home but are being forced to fight.

Again, I’m not going to split hairs, i don’t think the country has the stomach for mass military casualties even close to that which Ukraine may say they have.

I agree that we wouldn't put up with mass casualties, unless it was a war we had to fight.

Anything close to 50 dead/150 wounded per week for a few months and its game over in my view.

How many casualties could we expect? Well that depends on too many things, but as an example, let's look at the US's disastrous war in Vietnam: They suffered 58,220 fatalities over 18 years, which equates to 62 per week. But they had over 500,000 soldiers in Vietnam at one point, which is obviously many times more than the UK could be deploying. If the UK were to deploy 30,000 troops, that's maybe 7.5% of the average amount the US sent to Vietnam. So if the war went as badly for us as Vietnam did for the US, you're looking at 7.5% of 62 fatalities per week. That's 5 fatalities a week.

So it's not even 50/150.

I may be wrong, but that’s simply a difference of opinion between 2 posters on a message board for a provincial English football team. You know that’s all it is right?

I'm fine with you saying you don't think we have the stomach for war, but some of the things you've posted seem disingenuous: talk of the UK facing thousands of casualties per week, talk of only 11% of gen Z being willing to fight when that's not what the poll said, and talk of Russian soldiers being united in a common cause, when anyone looking at this war can see that they're not.

 

[Eric the meek]

Should this threads heading be changed to "Ukraine invades Russia" to appease our American friend

Ukraine has invaded Russia. It took a bite out of the Kursk oblast.

 

[MTSeagulls]

Yep, back in September the courts in Brazil blocked X for not having a legal representative here. They were also banned from doing any financial transactions which was extended to Starlink.
Musk thought he could bully his way out of it but the Brazilian courts wouldn't budge and he relented after a couple of months of no subscriptions.

Edit: Oh the quote I was replying to disappeared but was about Europe blocking Tesla/Starlink in retaliation.

 

[fly high]

Its one of the basic principles of contract law which is universally recognised. So it would be US contract law in this case...

undue influence

www.law.cornell.edu

But doesn't Trump now say what the law in the US is? What Ukraine can say is any treaty sign by Zelenskiy is null and void as the US state he is an unelected dictator.

 

[GoldstoneVintage]

Latests views on Trumps intervention, and the hard work of hard-working constituency MP Nigel Farago.

I think we should all adopt Pie's way of addressing Fartrage.

 

[SouthSaxon]

But doesn't Trump now say what the law in the US is? What Ukraine can say is any treaty sign by Zelenskiy is null and void as the US state he is an unelected dictator.

Neither seems like a reasonable risk to take. Just refuse to sign.

 

[GoldstoneVintage]

I'm sorry I'm not sure what you're getting at?

In a democratic country (with free press etc) with a nice standard of living, people aren't generally going to want to fight. People have good lives, and war sucks, so why would they want to? That changes when their country is under attack.

I remember at 16 thinking my friend was mad for wanting to join the Army. I'm not brave and wouldn't want to be in a war. But if the UK was attacked, I'd want to fight to defend it (even if I'd be a bit shit).

I am also extremely pro democracy and anti dictator, so if I was in the age bracket (I'm not) being called up to defend Europe from Russia, I think I'd be willing to fight.

"If you tolerate this, then your children will be next." springs to mind!

 

[armchairclubber]

It’s time for Americans to stand up to Trump before it’s too late. I hope they understand what they’ve voted for.

He's doing his best to convince them and they still seem keen, if not quite so rapturous.

Maybe they haven't got a clue what the feck he's on about either.

It's Ukraine Trump needs to convince though (and hopefully he won't ) not a bunch of maga loons.

 

[peterward]

Can someone rationalise this please?

Is this Trumps preparation for the US talks with Russia?

Have a look at this.... Will need to hit translate at bottom. It's from Denis Danilov, a prominent Ukrainian political scientist, who is followed by many of the Ukrainian accounts we follow like Gerashenko etc.

He says a Finnish MEP has said, Trump has advised Europe they have 3 weeks to force Ukraines capitulation to Russia or else US is pulling out of Europe?

It sounds fantastical, or does it anymore?

 

[peterward]

But doesn't Trump now say what the law in the US is? What Ukraine can say is any treaty sign by Zelenskiy is null and void as the US state he is an unelected dictator.

This is from the Budapest Memorandum article 3, that was signed in 1994, guaranteeing Ukraines protection if it handed over its nukes (worlds 3rd largest arsenal at the time) and signed by Russia, USA and UK

 

[raymondo]

Can someone rationalise this please?

Is this Trumps preparation for the US talks with Russia?

I read a week ago (yeah... somewhere) that there's a (weird to me) mutual respect between US Republicans and Polish political establishment . I don't get it, but if it's genuine and beneficial to Europe, let's take it.

 

[raymondo]

Have a look at this.... Will need to hit translate at bottom. It's from Denis Danilov, a prominent Ukrainian political scientist, who is followed by many of the Ukrainian accounts we follow like Gerashenko etc.

He says a Finnish MEP has said, Trump has advised Europe they have 3 weeks to force Ukraines capitulation to Russia or else US is pulling out of Europe?

It sounds fantastical, or does it anymore?

US pulling out of Europe in what way?? Close bases? Troops out of the Baltic?

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Maybe now is the time to reintroduce national service? I don't say that lightly with a 10yo son.

That would have basic military training in most gen z youngsters, who would then be reservists.

The threat from Trumps tilt cannot be understated, unless he is somehow deposed, we need to act swiftly and decisively, if this is new reality and plan accordingly.

No time for opinion polls or focus groups, neither of which will save us if the shit hits the fan.

That’s a no from me. The cost in a power alone to implement NS would cripple the army.