[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Triggaaar]

I’m with you in respect of the fact Trump only does what is good for him.

But I think there are a few more things going on here. He has spoken about bagging the Nobel Peace prize which feeds into the legacy stuff you are talking about. In addition, Trump is new money. A continuation of the war is worth nothing to him. Those American billionaires and millionaires making the dollar out of sales to the US government of arms sent to Ukraine are not his people, they are old money.

He wants to get the contracts for oil, gas and rare earths in Ukraine. He wants the property and rebuilding deals in Ukraine, he wants the sort of business ties and money making opportunities he thought the Bidens had there.

Trump sees money and opportunity for himself in peace. That’s why I think he’ll get it.

Trump may think that if Russia has Ukraine's land, he can do a deal with Russia to get some of the resources there. The resources belong to Ukraine, so maybe Trump thinks he can do a deal with Putin to share them, so they both win. But I don't see Ukraine and Europe going for it, so the war continues.

If Trump can't get a good peace for Ukraine, the war continues and then Trump tries to forget about it all and pretend it never happened.

 

[Triggaaar]

With congress & senate in his pocket plus attack on judiciary don't rule out change to get him a third or even 4th term.

But none of that has anything to do with his nonsense in Ukraine.

My guess is that Trump is so stupid that he thinks Ukraine can't beat Russia and that Ukraine has to do a deal to stop its people dying. So Trump think he can give Putin what he wants, and Zelenskyy will have to accept. But Russia are losing far more people than Ukraine, and it's in Ukraine's (and Europe's) interests to keep fighting rather than capitulate.

 

[raymondo]

Talking of nukes, if you have time before the football, do try to catch this from Paul Warburg. It's rather encouraging...

Aha...that'll calm me down before the match

 

[raymondo]

German defence Minister responds to Vance's criticism of Europe:

"
We're now hearing from German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, who says he "strongly opposes" the sentiments in US Vice-President JD Vance's earlier speech, which we've been reporting on.

In it, Vance broadly accused European governments of ignoring voter concerns on immigration and mitigating free speech.

"Democracy was called into question, by the US vice-president, for the whole of Europe earlier," Pistorius says from the main stage of the conference.

"He speaks of the annihilation of democracy. And if I have understood him correctly, he is comparing conditions in parts of Europe with those in authoritarian regions... that is not acceptable."

 

[Sirnormangall]

Statement by the governments of the large European companies (clearly triggered by announcements by Trump etc).

Weimar+ Statement by Germany, France, Poland, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, the European External Action Service and the European Commission

Joint Statement by Germany, France, Poland, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, the European External Action Service and the European Commission.

www.gov.uk

That’s encouraging, but if Trump withdraws support, is Europe collectively strong enough to stand against Putin? I hope so - and of course that’s what Trump wants ie a stronger Europe that requires less US support. Almost everything that Trump proposes will have a commercial objective and I don’t believe any of his “humanitarIan” aims and statements.

 

[Triggaaar]

That’s encouraging, but if Trump withdraws support, is Europe collectively strong enough to stand against Putin?

Yes.

I hope so - and of course that’s what Trump wants ie a stronger Europe that requires less US support. Almost everything that Trump proposes will have a commercial objective

But Trump isn't planning to withdraw support. He's not shouting it, but he has confirmed that the US will continue to provide aid to Ukraine. They do want it to be paid for, but they are going to continue to provide it.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Yes.



But Trump isn't planning to withdraw support. He's not shouting it, but he has confirmed that the US will continue to provide aid to Ukraine. They do want it to be paid for, but they are going to continue to provide it.

He’s a coward so all Europe needs to do is tell him to poke it.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

He’s a coward so all Europe needs to do is tell him to poke it.

Problem is Europe needs the USA more than they need us.

 

[Anger]

Problem is Europe needs the USA more than they need us.

We don’t need their Twinkies. They can keep that synthetic processed crap.

 

[raymondo]

That’s encouraging, but if Trump withdraws support, is Europe collectively strong enough to stand against Putin? I hope so - and of course that’s what Trump wants ie a stronger Europe that requires less US support. Almost everything that Trump proposes will have a commercial objective and I don’t believe any of his “humanitarIan” aims and statements.

Yes, I absolutely believe Europe is strong enough. The combined professional armies (excluding Hungary, Slovakia and Serbia ) together with high tech weaponry and Air Forces would IMO wipe the floor with Russia, (and still be careful not to hurt their mules at the front line).
Might have to buy lots of ammo from around the world.
Maybe Turkey would even help.

 

[raymondo]

Problem is Europe needs the USA more than they need us.

I'm not sure about that. Europe just needs to get some efficient working backbone

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Problem is Europe needs the USA more than they need us.

Their weapons industry does however.

 

[Sirnormangall]

But Trump isn't planning to withdraw support. He's not shouting it, but he has confirmed that the US will continue to provide aid to Ukraine. They do want it to be paid for, but they are going to continue to provide it.

That’s great - I’m losing track of the mixed messages coming from Trump and his new entourage! But Europe still needs to get its act together - are the likes of Spain, Italy, Portugal and others making any contribution?

 

[Sirnormangall]

Yes, I absolutely believe Europe is strong enough. The combined professional armies (excluding Hungary, Slovakia and Serbia ) together with high tech weaponry and Air Forces would IMO wipe the floor with Russia, (and still be careful not to hurt their mules at the front line).
Might have to buy lots of ammo from around the world.
Maybe Turkey would even help.

I read somewhere recently that Turkey has closed the Bosporus to the Russian navy. Hence the removal and repatriation of their hardware from Syria is going via the Baltic. I’m going to Istanbul soon so I’ll check it out.

 

[cunning fergus]

Yes, I absolutely believe Europe is strong enough. The combined professional armies (excluding Hungary, Slovakia and Serbia ) together with high tech weaponry and Air Forces would IMO wipe the floor with Russia, (and still be careful not to hurt their mules at the front line).
Might have to buy lots of ammo from around the world.
Maybe Turkey would even help.

The war in Ukraine has dragged on for 3 years and involved over 100k dead. The military hardware expended between the 2 nations is off the scale.

I don’t doubt NATO’s European countries have an edge in military technology and that would be an advantage in any confrontation with Russia.

However, in many other ways, economically, logistically, industrially I doubt these countries could get into a medium to long term wrestle with Russia

The U.K. has about 100 tanks, maybe 20k front line troops. The Air Force maybe 150-200 serviceable front line planes. I could go on because the prospect of anything other than a rapid victory would spell disaster.

The decline and diminishment of U.K. military capability has been quick, like our European peers we are a long way from the post war British Army of the Rhine days. That’s before you factor in the people expected to fight………..

search.app

 

[Triggaaar]

The war in Ukraine has dragged on for 3 years and involved over 100k dead. The military hardware expended between the 2 nations is off the scale.

I don’t doubt NATO’s European countries have an edge in military technology and that would be an advantage in any confrontation with Russia.

However, in many other ways, economically, logistically, industrially I doubt these countries could get into a medium to long term wrestle with Russia

The U.K. has about 100 tanks, maybe 20k front line troops. The Air Force maybe 150-200 serviceable front line planes. I could go on because the prospect of anything other than a rapid victory would spell disaster.

The decline and diminishment of U.K. military capability has been quick, like our European peers we are a long way from the post war British Army of the Rhine days. That’s before you factor in the people expected to fight………..

search.app

We're not at all ready for a war. But then neither were the US in 1939. So we'll avoid a war, but if a war comes to us we'll have no choice but to fight, and then Russia would be easily out-matched.

 

[Eric the meek]

 

[Hamilton]

The war in Ukraine has dragged on for 3 years and involved over 100k dead. The military hardware expended between the 2 nations is off the scale.

I don’t doubt NATO’s European countries have an edge in military technology and that would be an advantage in any confrontation with Russia.

However, in many other ways, economically, logistically, industrially I doubt these countries could get into a medium to long term wrestle with Russia

The U.K. has about 100 tanks, maybe 20k front line troops. The Air Force maybe 150-200 serviceable front line planes. I could go on because the prospect of anything other than a rapid victory would spell disaster.

The decline and diminishment of U.K. military capability has been quick, like our European peers we are a long way from the post war British Army of the Rhine days. That’s before you factor in the people expected to fight………..

search.app

Your numbers are wrong, but your sentiment is correct.

Investment in defence is sadly now a priority. Even more sad is the fact that the country is economically on its knees. Our debt is so high we can’t even borrow to invest in defence, at least not at the expense of health services, education etc.

The only answer is growth and the easy answer to that is not in the long term interests of the planet but more in the short term interest of profit. It massive investments in fossil fuels, in large scale infrastructure projects, in tax cuts for businesses etc etc. and I say this as a left winger. Right now, investing in building and defence is one short term path we might have to consider. The question is, will it damage the planet irreconcilably.

And then of course we have to build a better relationship with Russia. Their fears are not going to change and Putin will not change his spots. We don’t have to give in to him but we need to find a way of out Trumping Trump.

 

[raymondo]

The war in Ukraine has dragged on for 3 years and involved over 100k dead. The military hardware expended between the 2 nations is off the scale.

I don’t doubt NATO’s European countries have an edge in military technology and that would be an advantage in any confrontation with Russia.

However, in many other ways, economically, logistically, industrially I doubt these countries could get into a medium to long term wrestle with Russia

The U.K. has about 100 tanks, maybe 20k front line troops. The Air Force maybe 150-200 serviceable front line planes. I could go on because the prospect of anything other than a rapid victory would spell disaster.

The decline and diminishment of U.K. military capability has been quick, like our European peers we are a long way from the post war British Army of the Rhine days. That’s before you factor in the people expected to fight………..

search.app

I agree it wouldn't be a good idea, and that we and other countries are not ready for it...but if it had to happen, then I think Europe would come through. Unless Russia nukes cities of course.

 

[Eric the meek]

However, in many other ways, economically, logistically, industrially I doubt these countries could get into a medium to long term wrestle with Russia

What many other ways economically, logistically, industrially cause you to doubt that European NATO countries could get into a medium to long term war with Russia?

I assume that GDP isn't one of them.