Number of Deaths

[Titanic]

From today's ONS data (for 10th April):

"Looking at the year-to-date (using the most up-to-date data we have available to get the most accurate estimates), the number of deaths is currently higher than the five-year average. The current number of deaths is 184,950, which is 10,232 more than the five-year average. Of the deaths registered by 10 April 2020, 10,350 mentioned the coronavirus (COVID-19) on the death certificate; this is 5.6% of all deaths."

 

[KZNSeagull]

The ONS have released their total fatality figures today up to 10th April.

View attachment 122550

It looks like it's still running 30%-40% above the figures that the Government are announcing daily. (The ONS figures being a week in arrears in order to get the detailed information).

If these are updated on the COBR fatalities graph today, (they appeared on the graph 5 days ago, but haven't been updated since) it will mean that the total fatalities on 10th April were about the same as Spain, with only US having more.

View attachment 122553

On the positive side though, although the numbers of fatalities has been underestimated, the overall curve still seems to have peaked. Unfortunately, we won't know what it peaked at until next Tuesday.

I maintain that the ONS data is the best way of seeing how bad this pandemic is in the UK. I'm not sure how useful it is when comparing against other countries though, as we would need to know the total number of all deaths against a five year average in all those countries too, which I am not sure are being reported.

 

[WATFORD zero]

From today's ONS data (for 10th April):

"Looking at the year-to-date (using the most up-to-date data we have available to get the most accurate estimates), the number of deaths is currently higher than the five-year average. The current number of deaths is 184,950, which is 10,232 more than the five-year average. Of the deaths registered by 10 April 2020, 10,350 mentioned the coronavirus (COVID-19) on the death certificate; this is 5.6% of all deaths."

From the graph I included above, it looks more like 12,500 - 13,000 that the ONS have calculated to 10th April ? And yet from the same source. I'll just add it to the many things I don't understand about this bloody virus

 

[Thunder Bolt]

From the graph I included above, it looks more like 12,500 - 13,000 that the ONS have calculated to 10th April ? And yet from the same source. I'll just add it to the many things I don't understand about this bloody virus

Neither do I.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-deaths-41-higher-than-official-figures-ons-11976357

Coronavirus-related deaths were 41% higher in England and Wales than the government's hospital-only figures up to 10 April.

The new statistics, revealed in an Office for National Statistics report, take into account deaths in care homes and the community.

 

[Bodian]

The ONS have released their total fatality figures today up to 10th April.

If these are updated on the COBR fatalities graph today up to day 25, (they appeared on the graph 5 days ago, but haven't been updated since) it will mean that the total fatalities on 10th April were about the same as Spain, with only US having more.

Spain don't include care home deaths either though - this article says that their true figure could be 40% higher than stated https://www.ft.com/content/71e991a1-53ff-49f5-85b4-b111de7ddf6e

 

[crodonilson]

Interesting that despite the tragic and what seem to be huge numbers of deaths currently it is only a 20 year high for deaths, when we had a particularly bad flu season.

Total UK deaths highest for 20 years

 

[WATFORD zero]

Spain don't include care home deaths either though - this article says that their true figure could be 40% higher than stated https://www.ft.com/content/71e991a1-53ff-49f5-85b4-b111de7ddf6e

As I understand it currently, Spain, Italy and UK don't include Care Homes, France, Belgium and Sweden do. (Although that is only my understanding as getting definitive answers is not easy ).

40% could well be right as it's the sort of figure that the ONS statistics are indicating in the UK.

 

[dazzer6666]

The ONS have released their total fatality figures today up to 10th April.

View attachment 122550

It looks like it's still running 30%-40% above the figures that the Government are announcing daily. (The ONS figures being a week in arrears in order to get the detailed information).

If these are updated on the COBR fatalities graph today up to day 25, (they appeared on the graph 5 days ago, but haven't been updated since) it will mean that the total fatalities on 10th April were about the same as Spain, with only US having more.

View attachment 122554

On the positive side though, although the numbers of fatalities has been underestimated, the overall curve still seems to have peaked (or be peaking). Unfortunately, we won't know what it peaked at until next Tuesday at least.

The number of people in hospital with CV19 is steadily declining (particularly in London) which is a very positive sign in terms of the direction of the curve.

 

[Weststander]

I realise there's a significant time lag between new cases and deaths, but another large of loss of life reported in the UK today. These would've been some of the fatalities in the week up to Monday.

The following places seem to be the global epicentres of covid-19 fatalities - Italy, France, Spain, UK, Belgium, Netherlands, New York State and New Jersey.

That's out of the non-corrupt states. The BBC reported last week that in Ecuador many hundreds of the unexpected dead due to covid-19 were piled up in one town alone, yet even now the whole country officially reports just 507 fatalities.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Interesting that despite the tragic and what seem to be huge numbers of deaths currently it is only a 20 year high for deaths, when we had a particularly bad flu season.

Total UK deaths highest for 20 years

True, although the 2019-20 flu season peaked in December this winter, so those related deaths not appearing on the '2020 year-to-date' figures. Following on from that, I believe deaths so far in 2020 were right at the low end of the usual range - so to jump from that to '20-year high' is a big leap.

But yes, overall because of the lockdown, excess deaths have not become stratospheric in number

 

[Badger Boy]

So should we all isolate to prevent the peak of cold/flu season later this year?

People don't live forever, we've all got a death sentence. I'm not advocating tossing lives away as if they don't matter because they do. But how extreme can measures be to reduce risk over a long period of time? I have no problem with being in the minority on this issue, but I think we should already be relaxing the restrictions even if just to tone down the citizen militia telling people off for going outside when you are allowed to do so without having to explain your actions to anyone other than the police, if they ask.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

So should we all isolate to prevent the peak of cold/flu season later this year?

People don't live forever, we've all got a death sentence. I'm not advocating tossing lives away as if they don't matter because they do. But how extreme can measures be to reduce risk over a long period of time? I have no problem with being in the minority on this issue, but I think we should already be relaxing the restrictions even if just to tone down the citizen militia telling people off for going outside when you are allowed to do so without having to explain your actions to anyone other than the police, if they ask.

Who has told you off?

 

[Weststander]

As I understand it currently, Spain, Italy and UK don't include Care Homes, France, Belgium and Sweden do. (Although that is only my understanding as getting definitive answers is not easy ).

40% could well be right as it's the sort of figure that the ONS statistics are indicating in the UK.

That’s right, Spain’s stats do not include non-hospital deaths. Some Spanish sources suggest over half of their covid deaths are outside hospitals, from anecdotal care home figures. If true, more 40,000 Spaniards have died with covid19.

The UK, France and Belgium stats are based on deaths with covid19, some other countries deaths due to covid19.

France and Belgium have an extensive network of centralised care homes for the elderly, with medical facilities, meaning that those taken ill often don’t need to transfer to hospital.

As you’ve mentioned in a few posts, so many statistical connotations, making direct comparisons difficult.

 

[Titanic]

Interesting that despite the tragic and what seem to be huge numbers of deaths currently it is only a 20 year high for deaths, when we had a particularly bad flu season.

Total UK deaths highest for 20 years

We didn't have Twitter and Faceache 20 years ago... and we had a Labour government.

 

[Machiavelli]

There was an exchange last night about Carl Heneghan. The story's now made it onto the BBC website (see below for its opening paragraphs, for the full article, see: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52361519). I've emboldened a passage that really stood out for me at least. Am I reading this right? It seems to be saying that the daily announcements of hospitalised deaths actually feature deaths not just from the previous day, but from several prior days and today's figure includes some from March.

Deaths in England and Wales have nearly doubled above what would be expected, hitting a 20-year high.

The Office for National Statistics said there were 18,500 deaths in the week up to 10 April - about 8,000 more than is normal at this time of year.

A third were linked to coronavirus, but deaths from other causes also increased, suggesting the lockdown may be having an indirect impact on health.

But experts believe this period could well be when virus deaths peaked.

They point to a separate analysis by NHS England which showed since 8 April the number of deaths in hospitals have been falling when you look at the date of death.

The daily figures presented by government just show when hospital deaths are announced - there is often a delay in recording and reporting which masks when a drop in deaths starts happening.

On Tuesday 823 new deaths were announced, but most of these happened in the previous days and weeks. Some even date back to March.

Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, of the University of Cambridge, said the NHS England figures suggested we were past the peak and in a "steadily" albeit slowly improving position.

But he added: "Judging from the experience in Italy, this could be a lengthy process."

Prof Carl Heneghan, from the University of Oxford, said he agreed, saying London, which saw rapid increases earlier than the rest of country, peaked even earlier, suggesting the steps taken before full lockdown had an impact.

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

There was an exchange last night about Carl Heneghan. The story's now made it onto the BBC website (see below for its opening paragraphs, for the full article, see: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52361519). I've emboldened a passage that really stood out for me at least. Am I reading this right? It seems to be saying that the daily announcements of hospitalised deaths actually feature deaths not just from the previous day, but from several prior days and today's figure includes some from March.

Deaths in England and Wales have nearly doubled above what would be expected, hitting a 20-year high.

The Office for National Statistics said there were 18,500 deaths in the week up to 10 April - about 8,000 more than is normal at this time of year.

A third were linked to coronavirus, but deaths from other causes also increased, suggesting the lockdown may be having an indirect impact on health.

But experts believe this period could well be when virus deaths peaked.

They point to a separate analysis by NHS England which showed since 8 April the number of deaths in hospitals have been falling when you look at the date of death.

The daily figures presented by government just show when hospital deaths are announced - there is often a delay in recording and reporting which masks when a drop in deaths starts happening.

On Tuesday 823 new deaths were announced, but most of these happened in the previous days and weeks. Some even date back to March.

Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, of the University of Cambridge, said the NHS England figures suggested we were past the peak and in a "steadily" albeit slowly improving position.

But he added: "Judging from the experience in Italy, this could be a lengthy process."

Prof Carl Heneghan, from the University of Oxford, said he agreed, saying London, which saw rapid increases earlier than the rest of country, peaked even earlier, suggesting the steps taken before full lockdown had an impact.

Yes, this has been known for quite a while now. There’s been discussion about it on NSC.

 

[Bodian]

There was an exchange last night about Carl Heneghan. The story's now made it onto the BBC website (see below for its opening paragraphs, for the full article, see: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52361519). I've emboldened a passage that really stood out for me at least. Am I reading this right? It seems to be saying that the daily announcements of hospitalised deaths actually feature deaths not just from the previous day, but from several prior days and today's figure includes some from March.

Deaths in England and Wales have nearly doubled above what would be expected, hitting a 20-year high.

The Office for National Statistics said there were 18,500 deaths in the week up to 10 April - about 8,000 more than is normal at this time of year.

A third were linked to coronavirus, but deaths from other causes also increased, suggesting the lockdown may be having an indirect impact on health.

But experts believe this period could well be when virus deaths peaked.

They point to a separate analysis by NHS England which showed since 8 April the number of deaths in hospitals have been falling when you look at the date of death.

The daily figures presented by government just show when hospital deaths are announced - there is often a delay in recording and reporting which masks when a drop in deaths starts happening.

On Tuesday 823 new deaths were announced, but most of these happened in the previous days and weeks. Some even date back to March.

Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, of the University of Cambridge, said the NHS England figures suggested we were past the peak and in a "steadily" albeit slowly improving position.

But he added: "Judging from the experience in Italy, this could be a lengthy process."

Prof Carl Heneghan, from the University of Oxford, said he agreed, saying London, which saw rapid increases earlier than the rest of country, peaked even earlier, suggesting the steps taken before full lockdown had an impact.

Yes, this has been known for quite a while now. There’s been discussion about it on NSC.

Yes - but today's figure has a higher than normal number from the past looking at this - it seems to have been a general catch-up, not just the weekend's worth.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

.

Deaths in England and Wales have nearly doubled above what would be expected, hitting a 20-year high.

The Office for National Statistics said there were 18,500 deaths in the week up to 10 April - about 8,000 more than is normal at this time of year.

A third were linked to coronavirus, but deaths from other causes also increased, suggesting the lockdown may be having an indirect impact on health.

Or more likely, many of those WERE cv-related, but either undiagnosed, or conveniently mis-diagnosed. Like my elderly neighbour, who died last week in a care home, of a ‘non-specific pneumonia’.

It’s statistically very unlikely that the numbers of cv deaths are not much, much higher than stated. People talk of the ‘figure above the normal numbers’ of winter flu deaths, to play down the cv figures. This ignores, that the unprecedented lock-down scenario, must mean that the spread of ALL viruses are controlled, so there must surely be far less flu about - very, very few can have died from infectious diseases other than cv.

 

[oldboyroy]

Yes in effect the the figures are from various dates going back to March in cases and suggests that many were before lockdown. God only knows what would of happened if we hadn't gone into lockdown!! Credit to the government for that but obviously many questions about how an earlier lockdown would of prevented possibly thousands of deaths.

 

[Notters]

Yes in effect the the figures are from various dates going back to March in cases and suggests that many were before lockdown. God only knows what would of happened if we hadn't gone into lockdown!! Credit to the government for that but obviously many questions about how an earlier lockdown would of prevented possibly thousands of deaths.

There are signs that the curve was flattening before lockdown occurred. We won't really know until we know how many people have been infected.