Number of Deaths

[darkwolf666]

im not saying it, the data is telling us this happened.

I understand there will have been some cases where people would have died due to lack of care due to Covid, however not 20,000 people in 3 months.

These are excess deaths to the norm, we will never know going forward how many deaths will be caused because of cancelled appointments during the Pandemic.

While the figures have recently been adjusted to remove the "knocked down by a bus" Covid positive patients, no move has ever been made to correct the under recording of Covid infections and deaths in care homes, as was the case during the early days of the Pandemic.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52175891

The reasoning at that time being, once you have a few confirmed cases in a locale why carry on testing as it won't affect the public health outcome - clearly this sort of under reporting is more prevalent then getting hit by the No.67 bus - and I am sure would soon make inroads into that excess deaths number!

All deaths are very sad and none should be underplayed in tit for tat whataboutery.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I understand there will have been some cases where people would have died due to lack of care due to Covid, however not 20,000 people in 3 months.

These are excess deaths to the norm, we will never know going forward how many deaths will be caused because of cancelled appointments during the Pandemic.

While the figures have recently been adjusted to remove the "knocked down by a bus" Covid positive patients, no move has ever been made to correct the under recording of Covid infections and deaths in care homes, as was the case during the early days of the Pandemic.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52175891

The reasoning at that time being, once you have a few confirmed cases in a locale why carry on testing as it won't affect the public health outcome - clearly this sort of under reporting is more prevalent then getting hit by the No.67 bus - and I am sure would soon make inroads into that excess deaths number!

All deaths are very sad and none should be underplayed in tit for tat whataboutery.

Indeed.

There is a fair chance that many of the 20,000 excess deaths not presently 'labeled' up as Covid were in fact due to Covid. The vast majority were in the over 70s age group and a good percentage would have been in care homes where sudden death is expected and unremarkable and, with the best will in the world, the modern day Quincy isn't going to be called in to investigate nd classify each case.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Further fuel to my theory that the dominant covid mutant we currently 'enjoy' is a much less lethal variant. (Why is it my theory? Only because I don't hear it mentioned on the radio). Global data on ratios of deaths to cases and the change in this ratio since June fits the theory. It is (so far) also supported by headline UK data on cases and deaths trends (updated daily on the BBC web pages) where we can see the latest spike in cases that has (so far) not been matched at all by increases in deaths. Say about that what you will but when the same trend appears to be happening globally, it is...encouraging.

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Very good points and I am very hopeful that this, together with improvement in care of Covid patients learnt over the last 6 months, should see a far better outcome from this wave.

Because, if we had to rely on the Government to deal with testing, tracking, tracing and introducing measures to manage the second wave then, let's face it, we would be well and truly f***ed

 

[WATFORD zero]

im not saying it, the data is telling us this happened.

No it isn't. The data is telling us that there have been 20,000 excess deaths in a 3 month period for which the Government have no explanation.

Coincidentally, this 3 month period was also the first 3 months of Covid when there was no testing for Covid in both Care homes or home deaths and very little outside of Hospitals. This was because the Government had nothing in place to test or count these, which is why we now have 20,000 unexplained deaths and nobody knows the cause.

This could be made up of Covid deaths, lack of medical treatment deaths or any other explanation, and it would be foolish to think there wouldn't be aspects of all three in this figure.

The only thing that can be said is 'the data is NOT telling us that 20,000 people who have died died in 3 months because they didn't have treatment that would otherwise have saved their lives'. ie The exact opposite of what you have just posted.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

No it isn't. The data is telling us that there have been 20,000 excess deaths in a 3 month period for which the Government have no explanation.

Coincidentally, this 3 month period was also the first 3 months of Covid when there was no testing for Covid in both Care homes or home deaths and very little outside of Hospitals. This was because the Government had nothing in place to test or count these, which is why we now have 20,000 unexplained deaths and nobody knows the cause.

This could be made up of Covid deaths, lack of medical treatment deaths or any other explanation, and it would be foolish to think there wouldn't be aspects of all three in this figure.

The only thing that can be said is 'the data is NOT telling us that 20,000 people who have died died in 3 months because they didn't have treatment that would otherwise have saved their lives'. ie The exact opposite of what you have just posted.

Absolutely correct. Venn diagram. Precision and accuracy. Known unnowns versus unknown unknowns. And all that.

 

[beorhthelm]

No it isn't. The data is telling us that there have been 20,000 excess deaths in a 3 month period for which the Government have no explanation.

Coincidentally, this 3 month period was also the first 3 months of Covid when there was no testing for Covid in both Care homes or home deaths and very little outside of Hospitals. This was because the Government had nothing in place to test or count these, which is why we now have 20,000 unexplained deaths and nobody knows the cause.

This could be made up of Covid deaths, lack of medical treatment deaths or any other explanation, and it would be foolish to think there wouldn't be aspects of all three in this figure.

The only thing that can be said is 'the data is NOT telling us that 20,000 people who have died died in 3 months because they didn't have treatment that would otherwise have saved their lives'. ie The exact opposite of what you have just posted.

i was arriving at my conclusion by taking the data at face value. you're right to a point but there is also clinical diagnosis, dont have to be tested to be counted for covid. we know the data collection wasn't exact, with potential for covid to be over-reported too. we accept the data is roughly right, and the covid/not-covid roughly correct. otherwise we are selectively reading the data to arrive at a pre-conceived conclusion.

 

[WATFORD zero]

i was arriving at my conclusion by taking the data at face value. you're right to a point but there is also clinical diagnosis, dont have to be tested to be counted for covid. we know the data collection wasn't exact, with potential for covid to be over-reported too. we accept the data is roughly right, and the covid/not-covid roughly correct. otherwise we are selectively reading the data to arrive at a pre-conceived conclusion.

The 20,000 deaths are unknown. You are trying to read meaning into something that is, by definition, unknown. Your assumptions therefor that some numbers are 'roughly right', or 'roughly correct' are completely flawed. So what's the source for these 'roughly right' and 'roughly correct' figures that you are referring to ?

The Government have no idea what caused these deaths, because they are UNKNOWN, but you know ?

I really am not trying to be argumentative, but don't know how else to explain it

 

[beorhthelm]

The 20,000 deaths are unknown. You are trying to read meaning into something that is, by definition, unknown. Your assumptions therefor that some numbers are 'roughly right', or 'roughly correct' are completely flawed. (And what are these 'roughly right' figures that you are referring to ?).

The Government have no idea what caused these deaths, because they are UNKNOWN, but you know ? I really don't know how else to explain it

this is ONS data fed from death certificates, completed by doctors and other health professionals. there will be cause of death attributed to every one, along with commodities.

 

[WATFORD zero]

this is ONS data fed from death certificates, completed by doctors and other health professionals. there will be cause of death attributed to every one, along with commodities.

Well if you believe that to be the case, then the Government should be able to give figures for the various causes of death of these 20,000 unaccounted for deaths. Do you have any idea why they can't or won't publish these and have continued to maintain that the cause of death for these 20,000 is unknown ?

Because if they know but, for whatever reason can't or won't give those figures, it leaves them open to the exactly the sort of attack The leader of the Opposition made on them at PMQ some weeks ago, when he asked why they didn't know. Surely it would have been easier to answer the question as to what the cause of these deaths was, rather than say they still didn't know

And I'm afraid you still haven't explained your source for the assumption you made that these figures (whatever the figures are you are referring to) are 'roughly right' and 'roughly correct' ?

 

[beorhthelm]

And I'm afraid you still haven't explained your source for the assumption you made that these figures (whatever the figures are you are referring to) are 'roughly right' and 'roughly correct' ?

i did explain, its the ONS and death records. sorry i cant find exact links for you, i dont care to wade through the site to find non-covid datasets (which have come to dominate). i assume the health professionals complete the paperwork honestly, leaving ideas they're deliberately mis-reporting to conspiracy wingnuts.

edit: best i can find is this . section 4 shows causes of death categories, though not the underlying data sets, we can infer to have this they have captured the data to categorise.

 

[darkwolf666]

i did explain, its the ONS and death records. sorry i cant find exact links for you, i dont care to wade through the site to find non-covid datasets (which have come to dominate). i assume the health professionals complete the paperwork honestly, leaving ideas they're deliberately mis-reporting to conspiracy wingnuts.

Conspiracy theorists query something when there IS an explanation, it’s just that they choose not to believe the explanation.

On this occasion the query is because the government don’t know or aren’t prepared to say how those 20,000 people died, which clearly raises eye brows!

 

[beorhthelm]

Conspiracy theorists query something when there IS an explanation, it’s just that they choose not to believe the explanation.

On this occasion the query is because the government don’t know or aren’t prepared to say how those 20,000 people died, which clearly raises eye brows!

well i cant account for government incompetence.

 

[Weststander]

Conspiracy theorists query something when there IS an explanation, it’s just that they choose not to believe the explanation.

On this occasion the query is because the government don’t know or aren’t prepared to say how those 20,000 people died, which clearly raises eye brows!

Agree with you generally on these matters.

But we’ll never know the true cause behind each excess death, doctors cannot say for sure if someone was ill with another serious illness. Which would be commonplace in this age and vulnerable groups affected most. But they are compelled to put a likely cause on a death certificate.

That would be the same for every country.

Without that perfect information, all we can say is that total excess deaths is the standard to measure mortality due to the pandemic. Which by its nature includes additional suicides, loss of life from reduced hospital services, fear of seeing a doctor or visiting a hospital due to CV19 worries.

With the one proviso that some nations won’t necessarily tell the truth on numbers eg Russia and Trump‘s USA if he could somehow stick his large nose into the methodology and released data.

 

[darkwolf666]

Agree with you generally on these matters.

But we’ll never know the true cause behind each excess death, doctors cannot say for sure if someone was ill with another serious illness. Which would be commonplace in this age and vulnerable groups affected most. But they are compelled to put a likely cause on a death certificate.

That would be the same for every country.

Without that perfect information, all we can say is that total excess deaths is the standard to measure mortality due to the pandemic. Which by its nature includes additional suicides, loss of life from reduced hospital services, fear of seeing a doctor or visiting a hospital due to CV19 worries.

With the one proviso that some nations won’t necessarily tell the truth on numbers eg Russia and Trump‘s USA if he could somehow stick his large nose into the methodology and release data.

Fully on board with excess deaths as the measure, and we never will know the full answers.

However, each death certificate will have a recordable cause(s) of death, this is what the government appeared to be unable to answer.

A conspiracy theorist (clearly not the ones that use this site, as to man they believe Covid has been overplayed) would say that's because the government are hiding the true extent of the Pandemic.

I am sure the truth lies somewhere between the two.

 

[Weststander]

Fully on board with excess deaths as the measure, and we never will know the full answers.

However, each death certificate will have a recordable cause(s) of death, this is what the government appeared to be unable to answer.

A conspiracy theorist (clearly not the ones that use this site, as to man they believe Covid has been overplayed) would say that's because the government are hiding the true extent of the Pandemic.

I am sure the truth lies somewhere between the two.

Personally, all about opinions, I don’t think it’s an issue. If politicians were to meddle in ONS numbers, I’m sure it would soon leak out, statisticians or others would be furious. I trust the system, until proven otherwise.

For me the bottom line is that the UK performed very poorly with the first wave of the pandemic. With Spain, Belgium, The Netherlands and Italy (possibly others), major errors were made in the early days in February for example.

Total excess deaths tells us that and the government has freely released that metric for many months now.