Number of Deaths

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

The increase in the number of deaths continues to be bigger than the increase in the number of deaths (positive numbers in the yellow columns below) but over the days it is amazing how tight the data are. Remember, don't take to much note of the absolute numbers of cases or deaths because we don't know how these are identified from one nation to the next.

I was expecting the numbers in the yellow columns to get closer to zero over time if numebrs of new of infections really has slowed down, followed by in a reduction in the numbers of deaths a week or so later. Maybe this is happening. We shall see in the next few days. So far all my assumptions are still hanging in there, predictive in a reiterative way.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

Costello, is just one expert opinion among many, is championed on NSC as THE COVID-19 SAGE.

The dream scenario, that the UK is the most hurt nation on earth, to give a Gotcha moment on a Tory government.

Party politics, above hoping that as few a people as possible die.

What an absolutely disgusting post. Shame on you.

 

[Weststander]

What an absolutely disgusting post. Shame on you.

This entire crisis, it didn’t take long, has become highly politicised on NSC, every thread the same. Very predictably, split down the same old names. Similar to three years Brexit on NSC. Some posters with a relentless hatred in the the past of all things Tory, now on a mission on covid19 to pin all our woes on the government. Blinkered about the UK, at most only benchmarking against Germany and South Korea, conveniently ignoring the rest of Europe. There is a miserablist and anti-Tory agenda by some. Now revelling in Costello’s work, ignoring the wait and see view from other experts.

Of course you won’t agree, your vehement party political views are very much cut of the same cloth.

 

[Swansman]

This entire crisis, it didn’t take long, has become highly politicised on NSC, every thread the same. Very predictably, split down the same old names. Similar to three years Brexit on NSC. Some posters with a relentless hatred in the the past of all things Tory, now on a mission on covid19 to pin all our woes on the government. Blinkered about the UK, at most only benchmarking against Germany and South Korea, conveniently ignoring the rest of Europe. There is a miserablist and anti-Tory agenda by some. Now revelling in Costello’s work, ignoring the wait and see view from other experts.

Of course you won’t agree, your vehement party political views are very much cut of the same cloth.

If you use the search function for this thread and search the two terms "tory" and "labour", you are going to find that zero people in this thread said anything about any part before you brought it up.

Its not the first time either that people are discussing some expert or some perspective from their personal viewpoint and you show up out of nowhere and say "bah, the usual anti-Tory talk! Petty party politics!", when people are simply expressing their own personal view without really siding with party X or party Y.

People were talking about this Costello guy and what he was saying, they were NOT talking party politics - you are.

 

[Weststander]

If you use the search function for this thread and search the two terms "tory" and "labour", you are going to find that zero people in this thread said anything about any part before you brought it up.

Its not the first time either that people are discussing some expert or some perspective from their personal viewpoint and you show up out of nowhere and say "bah, the usual anti-Tory talk! Petty party politics!", when people are simply expressing their own personal view without really siding with party X or party Y.

People were talking about this Costello guy and what he was saying, they were NOT talking party politics - you are.

I’ve been around on this forum long enough, through years of political infighting, to recognise posters from either side of the fence. You’ve been here 5 minutes. General Election threads, amongst many, reveal all. NSC and this country is highly polarised politically just now. Boiling down to Tory hater or not, Brexit or Remain. The people in the middle often can’t be arsed to join those binfests, or enjoy life without politics.

If you think that covid-19 posts praising or slagging off the government are not politically charged, you don’t know this forum or this country.

 

[Swansman]

I’ve been around on this forum long enough, through years of political infighting, to recognise posters from either side of the fence. You’ve been here 5 minutes. General Election threads, amongst many, reveal all. NSC and this country is highly polarised politically just now. Boiling down to Tory hater or not, Brexit or Remain. The people in the middle often can’t be arsed to join those binfests, or enjoy life without politics.

If you think that covid-19 posts praising or slagging off the government are not politically charged, you don’t know this forum or this country.

A lot of subjects revolving Covid-19 are political by nature and of course peoples usual political preferences can be traced in what they are saying now as well but there's very little of the "Boris Johnson is God" or "Boris Johnson is Satan" and a lot more nuanced conversation than you normally see in highly politicised times.

Sure there is a few "if Boris walks on water its because he cant swim" and "the Labour party would have had us all killed by now" people around - not everyone is going to be sensible - and there is a few guys like you saying "you only agree/disagree with this guy because you hate party X", but other than that people are a lot more balanced than I've seen over my year here and compared to what you usually see on forums (because this is not a NSC unique phenomenon).

 

[Weststander]

A lot of subjects revolving Covid-19 are political by nature and of course peoples usual political preferences can be traced in what they are saying now as well but there's very little of the "Boris Johnson is God" or "Boris Johnson is Satan" and a lot more nuanced conversation than you normally see in highly politicised times.

Sure there is a few "if Boris walks on water its because he cant swim" and "the Labour party would have had us all killed by now" people around - not everyone is going to be sensible - and there is a few guys like you saying "you only agree/disagree with this guy because you hate party X", but other than that people are a lot more balanced than I've seen over my year here and compared to what you usually see on forums (because this is not a NSC unique phenomenon).

I agree, most posters are making those balanced insights on covid19. It started off very well and Bozza made it clear that people should post their political statements on the pandemic in a particular place and not spread across covid19 threads.

But that was soon disregarded, with some familiar names relentlessly posting against a government they’ve despised previously, without an ounce of balance or positivity, ever. Believe me about the UK, and I personally know many people from both sides, this is still a polarised nation for those interested in politics or Brexit, and some cannot resist to drag that into almost any thread.

 

[Titanic]

PHE/ONS All-Cause Mortality Surveillance - 16 April 2020 – Week 16 report (up to week 15 data)

https://assets.publishing.service.g...ortality_surveillance_week_16_2020_report.pdf

Data from ONS:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...glandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020

"The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 3 April 2020 (Week 14) was 16,387; this represents an increase of 5,246 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 13) and 6,082 more than the five-year average."

 

[WATFORD zero]

PHE/ONS All-Cause Mortality Surveillance - 16 April 2020 – Week 16 report (up to week 15 data)

https://assets.publishing.service.g...ortality_surveillance_week_16_2020_report.pdf

Data from ONS:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...glandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020

"The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 3 April 2020 (Week 14) was 16,387; this represents an increase of 5,246 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 13) and 6,082 more than the five-year average."

View attachment 122464

That was last week's figures with deaths up to 3rd April, and I think that's where the All Covid deaths line comes from on the COBR charts for the last few days. As you rightly pointed out it has been on the charts for the last 4 days, but not been updated, so I think it is coming from the chart below.



New statistics up to 10th April are due out tomorrow, so I suspect it will be updated then.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I have some bad news on numbers. As others have shown, the rate of new cases around the world isn't coming down in any systematic way. In the UK and US the rate of change of number of new cases seems to have plateaued. My analysis shows the in most countries high up the cases league the trend is for the number of new deaths to outstrip the number of new cases (positive numbers in the yellow columns) and the numbers are moving down towards zero which is what I would expect if the rate of increase in new cases is falling. But if these numbers stay close to zero it means we are actually at a steady state, meaning that we are not bringing the number of new infections down, or improving the survival rate in those who get infected. The absolute numbers declared here back this up. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases

Having had the wind taken out of me recently by the realization there is no proof yet this is a 'seasonal' virus and that we cannot just assume it will be, I am now afraid that I can't subscribe to the notion there is an end of the tunnel, let alone a visible light there. I paste my usual graph below.

Finally, given that the pattern is the same around the world and all the numbers around the world are converging, despite big differences in culture, population density, custom, reporting (genuine and mendacious), level of health care and even season, I don't think there is any reason for throwing bricks at any politican yet, at least not for doing anything in any way differently from what those who elected the leader would expect (not even Trump). Of course Boris isn't going to rush into a national shut down early. Of course Trump is going to cheer independent-minded Americans who choose to congregate together with guns. There may be recriminations later, but probably not, and the main thing now is to support one another and try to survive.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

This entire crisis, it didn’t take long, has become highly politicised on NSC, every thread the same. Very predictably, split down the same old names. Similar to three years Brexit on NSC. Some posters with a relentless hatred in the the past of all things Tory, now on a mission on covid19 to pin all our woes on the government. Blinkered about the UK, at most only benchmarking against Germany and South Korea, conveniently ignoring the rest of Europe. There is a miserablist and anti-Tory agenda by some. Now revelling in Costello’s work, ignoring the wait and see view from other experts.

Of course you won’t agree, your vehement party political views are very much cut of the same cloth.

That strikes me as a bit harsh, if you don't mind my saying.

One of the tory broad sheest (Times or Telegraph) ripped Boris a new one over the weekend. I'm sure there is a thread on it but I haven't read it. My point being that it is very easy to sidestep political campaigning on NSC if one wishes, particularly right now. I see there is a thread on 'has Boris done a good job' and would expect to see silliness and partizanship there, but so what? I'd only read it if I felt in the mood (which occasionally I am).

If anything the general political nobbery that is always part of 20% of NSC posts seems to have receded around Covid. I know I and others have repeatedly volunteered that the time for holding Boris to account is bound to come, but now is not the right time. That view seems to be more widespread than one might have expected, but is in line with what one might hope, in the current situation.

There may be lots of other political posts but I have most of the knee jerk tory Brexit monkeys, plus faux socialist Ernest on ignore, and JRG has been thrown into the Irish sea. Consequently I am not seeing much in the way of flagrant political campaigning, and can live quite easily with the odd political comment.

 

[Titanic]

Finally, given that the pattern is the same around the world and all the numbers around the world are converging, despite big differences in culture, population density, custom, reporting (genuine and mendacious), level of health care and even season, I don't think there is any reason for throwing bricks at any politican yet, at least not for doing anything in any way differently from what those who elected the leader would expect (not even Trump). Of course Boris isn't going to rush into a national shut down early. Of course Trump is going to cheer independent-minded Americans who choose to congregate together with guns. There may be recriminations later, but probably not, and the main thing now is to support one another and try to survive.

Crikey... does that mean lockdown is futile?

I feel it is time to open another bottle of red

 

[RossyG]

I think people need to remember that the lockdown was to buy time for the NHS so it’s wouldn't be swamped. It wasn’t about fewer people getting the virus; it was about making sure that when they did there’d be a hospital bed ready for them if they needed it.

These diagrams that were seen a lot at the time of lockdown show this.



The blue bit isn’t smaller than the red bit; it’s just spread out more. Lockdown isn't a cure.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Crikey... does that mean lockdown is futile?

I feel it is time to open another bottle of red

One of the worst things about this is trying to spot a trend. After reading a number of sources that said it's definitely not seasonal, there does seem to be a trend appearing, across various Government's responses, that appears almost seasonal. (I'm not suggesting it is, just an observation).

Add this to various reports of massive asymptomatic infection levels from some sorces, very low antibody reports from others, questioning over the whole validity of the underlying antibody tests and whether infected people are actually producing antibodies from the latest reports. I'm hoping that some sort of trends can be found in the next few days/weeks as it really seems that nobody knows despite the amount of work and effort going into this around the Globe

I've given up on bottles

 

[dazzer6666]

I have some bad news on numbers. As others have shown, the rate of new cases around the world isn't coming down in any systematic way. In the UK and US the rate of change of number of new cases seems to have plateaued. My analysis shows the in most countries high up the cases league the trend is for the number of new deaths to outstrip the number of new cases (positive numbers in the yellow columns) and the numbers are moving down towards zero which is what I would expect if the rate of increase in new cases is falling. But if these numbers stay close to zero it means we are actually at a steady state, meaning that we are not bringing the number of new infections down, or improving the survival rate in those who get infected. The absolute numbers declared here back this up. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases

Having had the wind taken out of me recently by the realization there is no proof yet this is a 'seasonal' virus and that we cannot just assume it will be, I am now afraid that I can't subscribe to the notion there is an end of the tunnel, let alone a visible light there. I paste my usual graph below.

Finally, given that the pattern is the same around the world and all the numbers around the world are converging, despite big differences in culture, population density, custom, reporting (genuine and mendacious), level of health care and even season, I don't think there is any reason for throwing bricks at any politican yet, at least not for doing anything in any way differently from what those who elected the leader would expect (not even Trump). Of course Boris isn't going to rush into a national shut down early. Of course Trump is going to cheer independent-minded Americans who choose to congregate together with guns. There may be recriminations later, but probably not, and the main thing now is to support one another and try to survive.

View attachment 122472

Won't the number of new cases being reported depend on the amount of testing being conducted ? Given this is increasing in many countries - using the UK as an example were previously only testing serious, hospitalised patients but are now testing (for example) key workers with mild symptoms, then the number of new cases will de facto increase (and rapidly as the depth of testing increases)............The no. of deaths will continue to stay high for a while yet as well given the lag relative to social distancing

The figure I'm most interested in - which perhaps gives the clearest indication of 'progress' - is the number of people currently in hospital as a result of Covid19 - I haven't seen the data today but this has been steadily falling for the last week.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Crikey... does that mean lockdown is futile?

I feel it is time to open another bottle of red

I think lockdown is essential because without it the rate of infection and death will increase. The big undertainty is how low the downward trajectory will go. Below are the possibilities. Note that the average pattern I show is based on eyeballing patterns from the Johns Hopkins page. In Germany the downward bit looks more impressive. In the UK it looks somewhat worse (UK real data shown).

I am hoping that we can all emulate Germany (in time) and get the number of cases down to close to none. However I suspect we will need a vaccine or we will end up with a constant sequence of new infection, with the only question being how low we can get the steady state number of new cases. In the long term we can't live in lockdown forever so if the disease does persist, as long as we have no vaccine then we will have a 'tolerable number of deaths' and extreme risk of death for those at risk. As a 61 year old I am getting somewhat concerned and am watching daily numbers like a hawk looking for solace. We need to see a sustained, worldwide downward trajectory, and it is likely to be weeks (possibly months) before the pattern becomes clear.

 

[Mellotron]

Won't the number of new cases being reported depend on the amount of testing being conducted ? Given this is increasing in many countries - using the UK as an example were previously only testing serious, hospitalised patients but are now testing (for example) key workers with mild symptoms, then the number of new cases will de facto increase (and rapidly as the depth of testing increases)............The no. of deaths will continue to stay high for a while yet as well given the lag relative to social distancing

The figure I'm most interested in - which perhaps gives the clearest indication of 'progress' - is the number of people currently in hospital as a result of Covid19 - I haven't seen the data today but this has been steadily falling for the last week.

All of this. By far the most useful solid data is the number hospitalised imo.

Case numbers - of all differing levels of severity, due to the constant changing demographic of people being tested - are nebulous for so many reasons as to be a very unreliable barometer of anything much atm.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Won't the number of new cases being reported depend on the amount of testing being conducted ? Given this is increasing in many countries - using the UK as an example were previously only testing serious, hospitalised patients but are now testing (for example) key workers with mild symptoms, then the number of new cases will de facto increase (and rapidly as the depth of testing increases)............The no. of deaths will continue to stay high for a while yet as well given the lag relative to social distancing

The figure I'm most interested in - which perhaps gives the clearest indication of 'progress' - is the number of people currently in hospital as a result of Covid19 - I haven't seen the data today but this has been steadily falling for the last week.

Not yet. Only when we start testing more (or indeed, some) people who are not ill, and my understanding is this is not happening yet, or if it is, it is not increasing anywhere. The numbers of new cases detected is almost certainly a reflection of the number of new cases (at the moment) rather than an increasing depth of testing coverage. After all, in the most efficient nation the number of detected cases is plummeting, yet the number of cases per death is hardly changing at all, after having fallen sligtly over the last week or so (see my daily tables of data)

It is possible that in some countries testing has always been done in people with lesser symptoms, which may explain in part the higher ratio of cases to deaths in Germany and the US, for example. In the UK diagnosis in some cases is still being done down the phone (in people who are actually sick, including for both the cases on my street).

I don't understand why everyone isn't testing everyone yet, or making this and the vaccine priority one. There may be a good reason but I don't know what it is.

 

[dazzer6666]

Not yet. Only when we start testing more (or indeed, some) people who are not ill, and my understanding is this is not happening yet, or if it is, it is not increasing anywhere. The numbers of new cases detected is almost certainly a reflection of the number of new cases (at the moment) rather than an increasing depth of testing coverage. After all, in the most efficient nation the number of detected cases is plummeting, yet the number of cases per death is hardly changing at all, after having fallen sligtly over the last week or so (see my daily tables of data)

It is possible that in some countries testing has always been done in people with lesser symptoms, which may explain in part the higher ratio of cases to deaths in Germany and the US, for example. In the UK diagnosis in some cases is still being done down the phone (in people who are actually sick, including for both the cases on my street).

I don't understand why everyone isn't testing everyone yet, or making this and the vaccine priority one. There may be a good reason but I don't know what it is.

I may be being thick in that case (not for the first time), but if we're testing (as a trend, anyway), more every day, and as this is currently limited to those with symptoms, the number of confirmed new cases will naturally go up quite steeply (it's simply capturing more cases that would have not previously been captured/reported). In the most efficient nations, that's exactly what should happen as they are mass-testing so capturing far more people that are negative. I'd still point to the number in hospital as the clearest indicator.

 

[Bozza]

I may be being thick in that case (not for the first time), but if we're testing (as a trend, anyway), more every day, and as this is currently limited to those with symptoms, the number of confirmed new cases will naturally go up quite steeply (it's simply capturing more cases that would have not previously been captured/reported). In the most efficient nations, that's exactly what should happen as they are mass-testing so capturing far more people that are negative. I'd still point to the number in hospital as the clearest indicator.

Agreed, yes.

We're broadly only testing those who rock up at hospital and are pretty ill already and, more recently, those treating the very ill. By any measure, this is going to result in a high proportion of positive test results.

Hospital admission data ia also, for me, the key indicator of the effectiveness of what we are doing.