Number of Deaths

[Titanic]

Meanwhile, we have the UK currently saying that they are only counting hospital deaths because that is 'how everyone else is doing it'. And today come reports of between 6,000 and 7,500 fatalities (depending on source) in Care Homes alone with no indications whatsoever of home deaths.

The government briefings have include an 'All deaths' as well as a 'Hospital deaths' graph for a number of days now.

Because this data is gathered from death certificates there is a significant lag in the collection / publication (looks like a about 2 weeks, which seems reasonable to me).

 

[WATFORD zero]

I do think the majority of countries only count hospital deaths in their running total. It reflects the haphazard nature that the deaths are recorded in. The Spanish figure quoted in that article for instance does not make it clear whether their care home figures had been added to the total or whether the 57% figure was equivalent to 57% of their current (as of 8th April) number of hospital deaths. For quicker analysis, I can see why governments use the data this way, and for comparison, it is helpful that we all use a similar method. However as Harry Wilson has stated, the important thing is that each country's recording process remains the same to ensure consistency.

I agree that consistency is the key in analysing trends, but I think that it's becoming fairly obvious that the UK's current fatality figures (15,464 deaths as of today) is a massive underestimate.

*edit* Just seen all deaths added to graphs today, albeit with a significant lag (which is understandable), but I believe the ONS figures released a week in arrears each Tuesday only have a lag of 7 days. Let's see what's released next Tuesday.

We can see the underestimates clearly from the ONS data, but only a week after the actual numbers.

 

[Titanic]

*edit* Just seen all deaths added to graphs today, albeit with a significant lag (which is understandable), but I believe the ONS figures released a week in arrears each Tuesday only have a lag of 7 days. Let's see what's released next Tuesday.

just for accuracy, this 'All settings' figure was added to the Govt briefing chart on 16th April.

https://assets.publishing.service.g...D-19_Press_Conference_Slides_-_16_04_2020.pdf

 

[dazzer6666]

Number of people in hospital starting to fall quite significantly now.......

 

[Weststander]

I'm still not convinced that we are getting accurate, comparable figures across Europe. Belgium are insisting that their fatality statistics include all Covid 19 deaths across Hospitals, Care Homes and Private residences, including deaths where the patient had coronavirus symptoms but had not been tested. They are saying that this is why their figures are so much higher.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8229275/Is-Europes-coronavirus-death-toll-DOUBLE-official-figures.html

There is also data coming from Italy, Spain, Ireland, Belgium and France that show Hospital deaths only account for about half of the fatality figures with 42-57% coming from care homes.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-deaths-care-homes-cases-uk-eu-italy-spain-ireland-a9463846.html

Meanwhile, we have the UK currently saying that they are only counting hospital deaths because that is 'how everyone else is doing it'. And today come reports of between 6,000 and 7,500 fatalities (depending on source) in Care Homes alone with no indications whatsoever of home deaths.

https://www.ft.com/content/9d6b46e2-55f4-4de1-ba21-f1ab9f14bcbf

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-04-18/7-500-feared-to-have-died-with-coronavirus-in-care-homes/

Now I know I am naturally quite cynical, but I can't help starting to get the feeling these statistics released are being 'managed'

You probably knew this already, but separately (with a long delay in collating the death certificate data for hospice, care home and home covid-19 data) the ONS do publish these figures. The problem is that they seem to be at best 10 days behind date of death, at release. An ONS guru quizzed on BBC a couple of days ago, he seemed honest, refuted that politics or ministers have any involvement.

The figures now appear as another coloured line on government ‘curve’ graphs, called England & Wales (other settings).

I agree with you, they should be aggregated.

France’s care home covid-19 deaths comprise circa 1/3 of their total. Their care home system is centralised, meaning they get the deaths data after a delay too, but not as long as ours. They don’t have private care home with nursing, that area falls under the hospital (long stay) system.

 

[Machiavelli]

I'm still not convinced that we are getting accurate, comparable figures across Europe. Belgium are insisting that their fatality statistics include all Covid 19 deaths across Hospitals, Care Homes and Private residences, including deaths where the patient had coronavirus symptoms but had not been tested. They are saying that this is why their figures are so much higher.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8229275/Is-Europes-coronavirus-death-toll-DOUBLE-official-figures.html

There is also data coming from Italy, Spain, Ireland, Belgium and France that show Hospital deaths only account for about half of the fatality figures with 42-57% coming from care homes.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-deaths-care-homes-cases-uk-eu-italy-spain-ireland-a9463846.html

Meanwhile, we have the UK currently saying that they are only counting hospital deaths because that is 'how everyone else is doing it'. And today come reports of between 6,000 and 7,500 fatalities (depending on source) in Care Homes alone with no indications whatsoever of home deaths.

https://www.ft.com/content/9d6b46e2-55f4-4de1-ba21-f1ab9f14bcbf

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-04-18/7-500-feared-to-have-died-with-coronavirus-in-care-homes/

Now I know I am naturally quite cynical, but I can't help starting to get the feeling these statistics released are being 'managed'

Anthony Costello said to the Health Select Committee yesterday that you can add roughly 50% to the hospital death daily accumulative number. I don't think the government are trying to massage figures, but I do think that this is further confirmation that it hasn't gone well over here, and that the government have got a lot to answer for.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

If you re-read the original post you'll read that I wasn't disputing that I was saying that unfortunately some people do die at this time of year and not ALL deaths could be attributed to COVID-19.

Your original post queried the difference between dying OF Covid19, and WITH Covid19, which was then picked up by many to suggest that many of the people who are dying would have died anyway of something else and the overall number of deaths may not be too different to a normal year.

We've since had some numbers out that counted the total number of UK deaths in a single week, I think it was the last week of March, to be 16,000 deaths. This was the highest number of weekly deaths EVER recorded since these records were started to be compiled in 2005, and 6,000 more than the comparable week in 2019.

Only 3,500 deaths or thereabouts in that week we're attributed to Covid19. IF the theme of this thread held true, we would have expected there to be overlap between the increase in weekly deaths and the number attributed to Covid19, i.e. IF there were perhaps 2,000 more deaths than normal in that week, but with 3,500 attributed to Covid, we could say that perhaps 1,500 people died WITH Covid but not OF Covid, they would have died anyway. This is the substantial co-morbidity that has been alluded to.

But that isn't what we see. Instead there is no overlap between the two numbers, indeed Covid only officially accounts for just over half the year-to-year increase, strongly implying that Covid is involved in the other deaths too, presumably many in Care Homes.

Now of course there could be an evening-out over the course of the year, that once the pandemic is over we will still substantial drops in death rates, i.e. we are finishing off people a little bit earlier than usual, but not substantially so. Well, we shall see, of course

But for the time being, the conclusion is that the minority view on this thread is supported, we are currently UNDER-estimating the impact of Covid19 on the UK death-rate.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Is there any reliable data on the "caused by Covid19" rather than "Covid19 positive but was very ill / old / would have probably died anyway" numbers of deaths in each country?

If not, is there reliable data on the current death rates compared to average rates over previous years?

I can only refer you to my post immediately above; to this graph from Indonesia https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/editorcharts/jznpnxdqplm/index.html, and the news reported on the BBC today that there were 6,700 deaths recorded in Ecuador's Guayas province over the last two weeks compared to an expected figure of 1,000.

UK figures from here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...nalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

In summary: The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 3 April 2020 (Week 14) was 16,387; this represents an increase of 5,246 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 13) and 6,082 more than the five-year average.

Of the deaths registered in Week 14, 3,475 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, which was 21.2% of all deaths; this compares with 539 (4.8% of all deaths) in Week 13.

In London, nearly half (46.6%) of deaths registered in Week 14 involved COVID-19; the West Midlands also had a high proportion of COVID-19 deaths, accounting for 22.1% of deaths registered in this region.

 

[Weststander]

Costello, is just one expert opinion among many, is championed on NSC as THE COVID-19 SAGE.

The dream scenario, that the UK is the most hurt nation on earth, to give a Gotcha moment on a Tory government.

Party politics, above hoping that as few a people as possible die.

 

[Swansman]

Costello, is just one expert opinion among many, is championed on NSC as THE COVID-19 SAGE.

The dream scenario, that the UK is the most hurt nation on earth, to give a Gotcha moment on a Tory government.

Party politics, above hoping that as few a people as possible die.

Saying that people are critical only because they want to make the Tory government look bad is also petty party politics.

 

[rogersix]

Costello, is just one expert opinion among many, is championed on NSC as THE COVID-19 SAGE.

The dream scenario, that the UK is the most hurt nation on earth, to give a Gotcha moment on a Tory government.

Party politics, above hoping that as few a people as possible die.

presumably, he thinks if the nation can learn the lesson offered by CV19, that may well save us from an as yet unknown, even greater peril

 

[RossyG]

Saying that people are critical only because they want to make the Tory government look bad is also petty party politics.

I’m afraid it’s true, though. I’m sure most Labour supporters wouldn’t do that, but the lunatic fringe has no scruples. Take this case.

 

[Weststander]

Saying that people are critical only because they want to make the Tory government look bad is also petty party politics.

Whilst the Swedish PM allows people to die daily, by not following the Danish, Finnish & Norwegian lockdown models.

 

[Swansman]

I’m afraid it’s true, though. I’m sure most Labour supporters wouldn’t do that, but the lunatic fringe has no scruples. Take this case.

Not saying it doesnt happen but there are people all over the political spectra that would strangle their grandmother if it would mean they scored a political point.

Dont know if its as polarized over there but here a lot of left voters say "everyone on the right are idiots" and a lot of right voters say "everyone on the left are idiots", and in trying to prove their point they usually just expose themselves and the sad truth: there's so much idiots regardless of political orientation.

Whilst the Swedish PM allows people to die daily, by not following the Danish, Finnish & Norwegian lockdown models.

Yes I've understood this is your opinion.

 

[Weststander]

Not saying it doesnt happen but there are people all over the political spectra that would strangle their grandmother if it would mean they scored a political point.

Dont know if its as polarized over there but here a lot of left voters say "everyone on the right are idiots" and a lot of right voters say "everyone on the left are idiots", and in trying to prove their point they usually just expose themselves and the sad truth: there's so much idiots regardless of political orientation.



Yes I've understood this is your opinion.

Real lives lost. Sticking to Scandinavia, deaths per million,

Sweden 150
Denmark 60
Norway 30
Finland

New cases reported today:
Sweden 1,511
Denmark 169
Norway 111
Finland 192

 

[Swansman]

Real lives lost. Sticking to Scandinavia, deaths per million,

Sweden 150
Denmark 60
Norway 30
Finland

New cases reported today:
Sweden 1,511
Denmark 169
Norway 111
Finland 192

I am aware and this could be for a lot of different reasons, as mentioned in the other thread and as mentioned by various Danish, Swedish, Norwegian and Finnish experts.

 

[beorhthelm]

...But that isn't what we see. Instead there is no overlap between the two numbers, indeed Covid only officially accounts for just over half the year-to-year increase, strongly implying that Covid is involved in the other deaths too, presumably many in Care Homes.

or deaths for non-Covid cases that arent sent to hospital or otherwise going untreated due to current refocusing of effort to this disease. we wont really understand the impact for months, when the data is analysed and cross referenced to account for many causes of death.

 

[Machiavelli]

Costello, is just one expert opinion among many, is championed on NSC as THE COVID-19 SAGE.

The dream scenario, that the UK is the most hurt nation on earth, to give a Gotcha moment on a Tory government.

Party politics, above hoping that as few a people as possible die.

Thank you very much.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Saying that people are critical only because they want to make the Tory government look bad is also petty party politics.

Not really. There are decent posters from each wing posting here. It is very easy to spot the nasty ones on both sides.

 

[Swansman]

Not really. There are decent posters from each wing posting here. It is very easy to spot the nasty ones on both sides.

I agree. What I was trying to say is that not everyone who is critical of the government or some of its actions is having some anti-Tory agenda, just like not everyone positive of the government of the government or some of its actions are having a pro-Tory agenda. Its not always that black and white.

You could say "we should have gone into lockdown earlier / we should not have gone into lockdown at all" without it necessarily meaning you hate the Tory party.

Same would of course apply if the Labour party were ruling.