The numbers can be misleading. In 2005 the liberals got 22% and the tories 32%. Labour (35%) lost a lot of votes to the liberals due to 'the dodgy dossier' but still won a working majority.
In the previous election the results were 41% labour, 18% liberal and 32% tory. In both the second and third Blair wins the turnout was low (60%) uninspiring tories and liberals.
Back in 1997 it was 43% to Labour, 31% tory and 17% liberal, and Mr Tony got 13,518,167 votes, with a 71% turnout. Unprecedented for labour.
After 2005 we have the 2010 Cameron win: 36% tory, 29% labour, 23.0% liberal, turnout upt to 65%. The swing voters turned out to ditch Brown, and lots of labour voters went liberal because of the increasing stink about the 'dodgy dossier' and 'illegal war'. What a compelling trope that was. It annoys me to hear left wing 'labour supporters' like my little brother still going on about it, as if it is a hex to keep labour pure and free of further Blairite incursion.
So basically labour used to do badly when they shipped votes to the liberals....
But by 2017 things changed. The liberals were hammered on 7%. Tories and labour had 43% and 40%, the best showing by labour since the first Blair win....however that does not tell the whole story. The turnout was high - 69%. However, the SNP, with only 3% (all in, er, Scotland) got 35 seats. They had only 5 seats when Blair won his landslide. Labour cannot win without Scotland it seems, even when they do well in their heartlands. Moreover, a left wing labour leader may do better in the heartlands than a moderate, but worse in the more marginal seats - the ones they need to win. They didn't win (even though lots of labour supporters talk as if they, Corbyn, did win).
Now in 2019, we have a tory landslide of 44%, and in % terms a labour collapse to 32%. In Scotland labour remain dead with SNP up to 48 seats. So even with a liberal collapse to 11%, labour did not gain sufficiently from leftwing liberals (or liberal socialists) as they had in the past. Turnout was pretty high at 67%.
That's all a bit longwinded but it seems to me that the trajectory is not towards the electorate being increasingly drawn to Corbyn style labour. People did vote for Corbyn in their droves in 2017, but despite the tories not getting Brexit done, the trajectory now is towards a labour meltdown. After all that tory cockwomblry, the labour vote collapsed. Think about that, momentum fans. There is no evidence at all that all labour need to do is lurch further to the left and all will be well. Evidence from past elections suggests the opposite - when labour are moderate they attract votes that would otherwise go to the liberals.
Finally, scottish nationalism has now reduced Labour's attainable target by almost 50 seats (tories have had few Scottish seats for decades). That in itself spells tough times ahead for labour.
The new labour leader must become plausible in Scotland, plausible about Brexit, consistent and resolute in her position, modest in her aspirations (support the NHS, schools, police and military, accept some tax rises) and not threaten to soak the rich, attack capital, and promise insane things that people don't want (like forced renationalisations, free ****ing wifi and other daft gimmicks). Oh, and have a rapid response team (like Blair set up) to deal with any media malarkey, while avoiding machine-gunning herself in the head by giving apparent succour to hopeless and irrelevant causes (including by 'unwittingly' sharing a platform with terrorists, and tweeting support for antisemitic artworks she 'categorically' hadn't 'actually seen'. FFS.).
Also, they need to have more courage and vision than Blair - yes, be softer at first to get a majority (don't frighten people with chest-beating vows to lurch immediately leftwards), but remember the project IS to bring succour to the weak and poor as well as freedom to the talented to succeed (the project IS to move leftwards); Blair lost sight of this.
I'd wish Boris all the best of luck saving us (and himself) from a damaging Brexit dabacle but, frankly, Boris needs no more luck. He's had an insane amount of it alread in the last few years.
She would also run rings around Boris. He would be okay in the short term, with the wind in his sails, but once things get a little tricky, he would be running for the nearest fridge.
