Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[beorhthelm]

BBC News - Covid vaccine to be required for England care home staff
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57492264

i doubt it would make it into law. the odd thing is only covering care home staff, not nurses and a wider range of jobs in healthcare or contact with at risk groups.

 

[beorhthelm]

Sacha Lord [MENTION=29514]SAC[/MENTION]ha_Lord
Shambolic.

The industry has spent 10’s millions installing Perspex screens on the advice of the Government.

Ministers are now being briefed that they did more harm than good, as it prevented airflow.

I’ll file that with the 10pm curfew rule/clueless.


If true, I can see a lot of legal action taking place

reckon legal action would have to provide proof, but also balance of risks. perspex to protect seems to be more likely advantageous than airflow. implicitly if the airflow is there, the virus travels past those being protected, increasing risk of infecting. sceptical on the whole airflow thing as i dont see why scientific knowledge of virus movement changed, wasnt a problem at start, and conflicts with 2m rule.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Someone quoted some chap on modelling/stats showing the link between positive tests and admissions....this one seems to offer more hope

https://twitter.com/nicfreeman1209/status/1404915641728081921?s=21

 

[Granny on the wing]

reckon legal action would have to provide proof, but also balance of risks. perspex to protect seems to be more likely advantageous than airflow. implicitly if the airflow is there, the virus travels past those being protected, increasing risk of infecting. sceptical on the whole airflow thing as i dont see why scientific knowledge of virus movement changed, wasnt a problem at start, and conflicts with 2m rule.

The WHO recently stated that the virus is like an aerosol ,so it`s going to be floating around a room regardless of screens. The screens will protect from direct coughing or sneezing .I was wondering how in Australia staff in quarantine hotels were getting infected and speculated that if they were passing food to someone in a room who just opened the door the air would go into the corridors .All buildings will need constant clean air through air conditioning ,quite a bit of work to do that . I`m guessing in supermarkets with high ceilings the thermals will take the air up .I know they blow warm air down in the winter but i am not sure about extraction ?

 

[beorhthelm]

The WHO recently stated that the virus is like an aerosol ...

yes, though they and all medical authorities had 6mth+ of telling us it was not aerosol, but droplets. there are naunces to the technical terms that mean it can be both. they seem to switch from leaning short range droplets to longer range aerosol droplets. there were very specific evidence on range leading to 2m distance (though less in some countries). the virus didn't change so was why did the advice? was the info for public dumbed down then upgraded, to calm then raise new concern. i suspect the truth is risk factors and viral loads with diminishing risk with distance outweighing the fear factor (such as windows open in winter to "let the virus out").

 

[Bozza]

Someone quoted some chap on modelling/stats showing the link between positive tests and admissions....this one seems to offer more hope

https://twitter.com/nicfreeman1209/status/1404915641728081921?s=21

It was me. I read Nic Freeman's thread last night, as James Ward RTed it. Much of the technical stuff went way over my head, however the two aren't contradictory, as you seem to be implying.

There IS a correlation between cases and hospitalisations - there always has been.

As I've said on this thread several times recently, the "conversion rate" from cases to hospitalisations has been getting better and better. From being around 10% a year ago, we're now down to 4-5% which is excellent news for us all.

Nic Freeman's opening graph shows the recent end of that trend, drifting down from 7% in April to c3.5% now.

The difference comes in that Oliver Johnson, like some others, has suggested 10 days provides the best fit, and his graph does show a very close match. Nic Freeman suggests that 6 days is the optimum time. Again, his technical reasoning for that is way above me, but I noticed that someone has mentioned OJ on that thread, and I'll be interested to see if he takes a look at 6 days v 10 days.

Back to the tweet I embedded on here, all that illustrates is the hospitalisations currently "baked in" from the recent case surge. It's not intending to show the long-term improvement, although Oliver Johnson has tweeted out those longer-term "conversion rates" too.

TL;DR...

1. Fewer people who test positive are going to hospital than at any other point in the pandemic - everyone acknowledges that.
2. We are probably looking at 250-300 hospitalisations per day in a week or two based on the recent surge in cases.
3. Although still increasing, cases are showing signs of flattening out a bit, so the peak of cases, and hospitalisations may not be too far away. Fingers crossed.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

California joins the list of fully open states, few more freedoms for vaccinated than unvaccinated.

 

[Granny on the wing]

yes, though they and all medical authorities had 6mth+ of telling us it was not aerosol, but droplets. there are naunces to the technical terms that mean it can be both. they seem to switch from leaning short range droplets to longer range aerosol droplets. there were very specific evidence on range leading to 2m distance (though less in some countries). the virus didn't change so was why did the advice? was the info for public dumbed down then upgraded, to calm then raise new concern. i suspect the truth is risk factors and viral loads with diminishing risk with distance outweighing the fear factor (such as windows open in winter to "let the virus out").

Taking all that into account if experts say the Delta variant is 60% more transmissible what does that mean ?

 

[LamieRobertson]

It was me. I read Nic Freeman's thread last night, as James Ward RTed it. Much of the technical stuff went way over my head, however the two aren't contradictory, as you seem to be implying.

There IS a correlation between cases and hospitalisations - there always has been.

As I've said on this thread several times recently, the "conversion rate" from cases to hospitalisations has been getting better and better. From being around 10% a year ago, we're now down to 4-5% which is excellent news for us all.

Nic Freeman's opening graph shows the recent end of that trend, drifting down from 7% in April to c3.5% now.

The difference comes in that Oliver Johnson, like some others, has suggested 10 days provides the best fit, and his graph does show a very close match. Nic Freeman suggests that 6 days is the optimum time. Again, his technical reasoning for that is way above me, but I noticed that someone has mentioned OJ on that thread, and I'll be interested to see if he takes a look at 6 days v 10 days.

Back to the tweet I embedded on here, all that illustrates is the hospitalisations currently "baked in" from the recent case surge. It's not intending to show the long-term improvement, although Oliver Johnson has tweeted out those longer-term "conversion rates" too.

TL;DR...

1. Fewer people who test positive are going to hospital than at any other point in the pandemic - everyone acknowledges that.
2. We are probably looking at 250-300 hospitalisations per day in a week or two based on the recent surge in cases.
3. Although still increasing, cases are showing signs of flattening out a bit, so the peak of cases, and hospitalisations may not be too far away. Fingers crossed.

Likewise....it went way over my head....and yes I agree it will be interesting to see re 6v10

...and yes I guess I was implying but thanks (genuinely) for the interpretation.....I’m reading that not only are fewer people going to hospital but their stay is much shorter ...perhaps figures showing discharges should be put alongside admissions...and yes fingers and legs crossed.

 

[Lyndhurst 14]

New York State are dropping all covid restrictions as they have hit the magical 70 percent mark for vaccines.

When the pandemic started they were one of the global hot spots for infections and deaths and Andrew Cuomo, the Governor, came in for a lot of flack for his handling of the crisis but they really turned things around.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

When the pandemic started they were one of the global hot spots for infections and deaths and Andrew Cuomo, the Governor, came in for a lot of flack for his handling of the crisis but they really turned things around.

They say all restrictions - I assume there is some in place?

Is it different for vax/unvax?

 

[Lyndhurst 14]

They say all restrictions - I assume there is some in place?

Is it different for vax/unvax?

The official line is that virtually all COVID rules have expired and businesses are still free to continue with restrictions if they so wish, but all the major stuff, transit, shops, restaurants, gyms etc are back to normal. I think the push is on to get as many of the remaining 30% vaccinated as soon as possible. Lowest take up rates are the Bronx and Brooklyn. It's still a sobering thought that the US is about to hit the 600,000 deaths marker

 

[Bozza]

Delta going through the very same pattern in the US that it did in the UK, "hiding" it's growth under the rapid drop-off of Alpha, but may reach the tipping point where cases will start to rise again.

May not bode well for the swathes of unvaccinated folk in certain geographical areas...

[tweet]1404911915411910661[/tweet]

 

[Bozza]

9,055 new cases, the highest since 25th February, but it is still a positive in terms of indicating that the growth of new cases is continuing to slow.

The 7-day average is now down to a growth rate of 31.8%, compared to 38.8% yesterday and 65.9% last Wednesday).

 

[dazzer6666]

It was me. I read Nic Freeman's thread last night, as James Ward RTed it. Much of the technical stuff went way over my head, however the two aren't contradictory, as you seem to be implying.

There IS a correlation between cases and hospitalisations - there always has been.

As I've said on this thread several times recently, the "conversion rate" from cases to hospitalisations has been getting better and better. From being around 10% a year ago, we're now down to 4-5% which is excellent news for us all.

Nic Freeman's opening graph shows the recent end of that trend, drifting down from 7% in April to c3.5% now.

The difference comes in that Oliver Johnson, like some others, has suggested 10 days provides the best fit, and his graph does show a very close match. Nic Freeman suggests that 6 days is the optimum time. Again, his technical reasoning for that is way above me, but I noticed that someone has mentioned OJ on that thread, and I'll be interested to see if he takes a look at 6 days v 10 days.

Back to the tweet I embedded on here, all that illustrates is the hospitalisations currently "baked in" from the recent case surge. It's not intending to show the long-term improvement, although Oliver Johnson has tweeted out those longer-term "conversion rates" too.

TL;DR...

1. Fewer people who test positive are going to hospital than at any other point in the pandemic - everyone acknowledges that.
2. We are probably looking at 250-300 hospitalisations per day in a week or two based on the recent surge in cases.
3. Although still increasing, cases are showing signs of flattening out a bit, so the peak of cases, and hospitalisations may not be too far away. Fingers crossed.

I also read yesterday that those being admitted to hospital are staying for far less time on average (and far fewer ending up in ITU) and recovering much more quickly (largely because they are younger/less vulnerable obviously, but treatment is also improving) so even increased admissions won't be as dramatic as it was previously because discharge numbers will also be high.

 

[Weststander]

Delta going through the very same pattern in the US that it did in the UK, "hiding" it's growth under the rapid drop-off of Alpha, but may reach the tipping point where cases will start to rise again.

May not bode well for the swathes of unvaccinated folk in certain geographical areas...

[tweet]1404911915411910661[/tweet]

No surprise which states are way, way behind in vaccinating.



Whilst the New England states hover around 60% fully vax’d.

 

[Lyndhurst 14]

No surprise which states are way, way behind in vaccinating.

View attachment 137737

Whilst the New England states hover around 60% fully vax’d.

Yes, it's very difficult not to start profiling by the number of rednecks and churches in those States

 

[Weststander]

Yes, it's very difficult not to start profiling by the number of rednecks and churches in those States

Are all the Manhattan hotels and theatres now open?

We were booked (a holiday of a lifetime for my teenage kids) for July 20, but the pandemic put paid to that.

Then for 4 weeks time, so obviously not happening.

US administrations have an insular, circle the wagons, reaction to any global event. Biden even now seems very averse to allowing even vaccinated tourists in. Our loss .

Any ideas when that might realistically change?

 

[Lyndhurst 14]

Are all the Manhattan hotels and theatres now open?

We were booked (a holiday of a lifetime for my teenage kids) for July 20, but the pandemic put paid to that.

Then for 4 weeks time, so obviously not happening.

US administrations have an insular, circle the wagons, reaction to any global event. Biden even now seems very averse to allowing even vaccinated tourists in. Our loss .

Any ideas when that might realistically change?

Most major theaters are due to open September 14, with some of the smaller off Broadway venues opening a bit before. News reports were saying theaters are typically nervous about opening new shows at the best of times, throw in Covid and reopening after being shut for well over a year and producers want a little more time for rehearsals and getting people used to big crowds around Times Square. Hotels are operating as 'normal' but I don't know what their individual restrictions and quarantine periods are for visitors

As of about a week ago travel from the UK was not permitted, there are flights but they are for US citizens and Permanent residents. This is pretty fluid but as you say I think the US will be very conservative about letting people in even if vaccinated so really not sure when this will change. I don't think that Boris' constant yo-yoing on opening dates etc is exactly helping matters

 

[crodonilson]

What chances full audiences for the opening weekend of EPL fixtures?? Slim? Looking positive at least for more than the 25% audiences at most Euro venues, but feel the most sensible move would be a requirement for face masks and proof of vaccination or negative test to attend games.