Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Bozza]

My final contribution on the point on the current situation of cases, where all I'm doing is contending that cases are going up pretty rapidly, is a home-made Excel chart of cases with a trendline.



I'll just add that there is a natural ebb and flow to reported case data throughout the week. We have the weekend lag and it is also known that more people go in for tests at the beginning of the week than the end. So, on many weeks, Friday will have the highest reported number of cases, whilst Monday will have the lowest.

To look back, on a Monday, and say "cases are pretty flat over the past few days" is likely going to mis-represent what is actually going on due to this ebb and flow.

 

[LamieRobertson]

My final contribution on the point on the current situation of cases, where all I'm doing is contending that cases are going up pretty rapidly, is a home-made Excel chart of cases with a trendline.

View attachment 137686

I'll just add that there is a natural ebb and flow to reported case data throughout the week. We have the weekend lag and it is also known that more people go in for tests at the beginning of the week than the end. So, on many weeks, Friday will have the highest reported number of cases, whilst Monday will have the lowest.

To look back, on a Monday, and say "cases are pretty flat over the past few days" is likely going to mis-represent what is actually going on due to this ebb and flow.

Have you got a chart that ties in with number of positive tests against tests carried out...just out of interest.

 

[Medwayseagull]

How do you know they (ie those tasked with steering us through this) don't out of interest?

I am sure they do and I know they publish the test figures each day. My point was that all the public focus is on absolute numbers of infections rather than contextualising them with the tests carried out.

 

[dazzer6666]

I am sure they do and I know they publish the test figures each day. My point was that all the public focus is on absolute numbers of infections rather than contextualising them with the tests carried out.

Testing data is here - https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

Number vary quite widely - from 500k to over 1m in the last few days for example.

 

[LamieRobertson]

I am sure they do and I know they publish the test figures each day. My point was that all the public focus is on absolute numbers of infections rather than contextualising them with the tests carried out.

Aye that’s how I understood what you meant, a little depth to headline figures would help in the daily reporting ...maybe along with other non covid metrics although I guess not so easy.

 

[Napper]

so cases are what matters now then. Right ok.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

I'm due to be getting married in just under four weeks.

I'm awaiting an email from our venue to confirm exactly what they can accomodate under the new rules, but the continued requirement for social distancing very much makes me think that we at least are in no different position now than we were prior to yesterday's announcement.

Congrats, Went through the same thing last Nov - we decided to just do it with reduced numbers etc.

Glad we did given the backlog.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Covid Fact Check UK
@fact_covid
Replying to
@UKCovid19Stats
Am fairly convinced the growth rate (not infection rate) has slowed down.

Today’s seven-day average is up 45.5% on last week. Here’s how it’s been dropping:

Wednesday - 66.0%
Thursday- 63.1%
Friday - 58.1%
Saturday- 52.4%
Sunday - 49.3%
Today - 45.5%

Crossed fingersfor levelling off soon.
4:10 pm · 14 Jun 2021·Twitter

Going to be a struggle to hit 100k cases by Monday.

 

[Bozza]

so cases are what matters now then. Right ok.

Who said that?

 

[Bozza]

I am sure they do and I know they publish the test figures each day. My point was that all the public focus is on absolute numbers of infections rather than contextualising them with the tests carried out.

Is it (the public focus)?

We each choose what media we consume.

About the only structured news I consume across TV, radio, print and online media sites is when I just happen to catch a 5Live hourly news bulletin.

All of my Covid-y stuff comes direct from a carefully-curated twitter list made up of a variety of epidemiologists, virologists, public health professionals, modellers, mathematicians and the like, in order that I get their output unfiltered and free from any narrative imposed by a media organisation with an agenda to push.

The list includes optimists, pessimists and centrists and gives a good cross-section of views and analysis.

 

[Bozza]

Covid Fact Check UK
@fact_covid
Replying to
@UKCovid19Stats
Am fairly convinced the growth rate (not infection rate) has slowed down.

Today’s seven-day average is up 45.5% on last week. Here’s how it’s been dropping:

Wednesday - 66.0%
Thursday- 63.1%
Friday - 58.1%
Saturday- 52.4%
Sunday - 49.3%
Today - 45.5%

Crossed fingersfor levelling off soon.
4:10 pm · 14 Jun 2021·Twitter

Going to be a struggle to hit 100k cases by Monday.

If only someone had been mentioning dwindling 7-day averages over the last hour or two, including mention of 45%...

(Are you David Paton BTW?)

 

[dazzer6666]

Covid Fact Check UK
@fact_covid
Replying to
@UKCovid19Stats
Am fairly convinced the growth rate (not infection rate) has slowed down.

Today’s seven-day average is up 45.5% on last week. Here’s how it’s been dropping:

Wednesday - 66.0%
Thursday- 63.1%
Friday - 58.1%
Saturday- 52.4%
Sunday - 49.3%
Today - 45.5%

Crossed fingersfor levelling off soon.
4:10 pm · 14 Jun 2021·Twitter

Going to be a struggle to hit 100k cases by Monday.

Weird, I heard they were rocketing

 

[Medwayseagull]

Is it (the public focus)?

We each choose what media we consume.

About the only structured news I consume across TV, radio, print and online media sites is when I just happen to catch a 5Live hourly news bulletin.

All of my Covid-y stuff comes direct from a carefully-curated twitter list made up of a variety of epidemiologists, virologists, public health professionals, modellers, mathematicians and the like, in order that I get their output unfiltered and free from any narrative imposed by a media organisation with an agenda to push.

The list includes optimists, pessimists and centrists and gives a good cross-section of views and analysis.

That is fine if you are obsessed with social media as the source of your information. For a lot of people the source of their information is more traditional TV and radio.

 

[Bozza]

Weird, I heard they were rocketing

Not from me you haven't.

Shooting up - yep.
Rising exponentially - yep.
Rate of growth showing signs of slowing - yep.
Rocketing - nope.

I guess it comes down to how you define "rocket" but I'd certainly suggest we are in that territory, and cases HAVE shot up since last week.

Now maybe you don't deem that "rocketing" - I'm not going to argue the toss on that - but they are rising exponentially

 

[dazzer6666]

Not from me you haven't.

Shooting up - yep.
Rising exponentially - yep.
Rate of growth showing signs of slowing - yep.
Rocketing - nope.

It's not all about you you know....oh hang on, yes it is, it's your forum (and your Thesaurus, clearly)

 

[LamieRobertson]

It’s gorgeous weather out

 

[loz]

Well I dont know who to believe now Boris or this "fact" that I just saw on a twitter feed.

On the 30th May the postive test rate was 0.65% based on 496068 tests and 3240 cases. Today it was 0.71% based on 1084406 tests and 7742 cases, if that is in anyway correct we are being played big time. The more you test the more you find.

And no I am not a Trump supporter

 

[dazzer6666]

It’s gorgeous weather out

Temperature has been shooting up/rising exponentially/rocketing (*delete as appropriate) over the last few days but seems to be levelling off now

 

[LamieRobertson]

Temperature has been shooting up/rising exponentially/rocketing (*delete as appropriate) over the last few days but seems to be levelling off now

Oh well played

 

[dazzer6666]

I am sure they do and I know they publish the test figures each day. My point was that all the public focus is on absolute numbers of infections rather than contextualising them with the tests carried out.

Simple chart showing positive tests as a % of total number of tests from 1st Feb to date