Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Soton Seagull]

The doom predicting scientists of the '3rd wave will kill up to 100k this summer' are confusing me. Perhaps as a non scientist I'm missing something obvious, but it seems fairly clear that Covid doesn't like the summer, hence likely a repeat of it dropping massivley to at least the levels of last summer. This also completely ignores the benefits of the vast numbers of vaccinated people vs last year and those, likely in the millions, who have had covid and have some immunity.

Will cases increase as we release some shackes? Probably.

Will this release kill many thousands this summer - unlikely.

The tabloids have a lot of responsibility for this fearmongering, but also some scientists need to apply seasonality to their models!

 

[nwgull]

It is predominantly the old and the vulnerable still because there are still a significant amount of people who for health or personal reasons have still not been vaccinated, we know that 95% of groups 1-9 priority were vaccinated but that still leaves 1.5m people who are very vulnerable and if on 21st June all measures are dropped the covid virus will quickly spread again, and many chains which will not be broken by social distancing and other mwearues will end with a vulnerable person becoming infected. It will also at that point infect many young people, the vast majority of which will be unaffected but I believe that in Brazil for example half of the people in hospital are under 40, so whilst it will be a very small percentage of the people who become ill because of the number of unvaccinated people under 40 in thew UK it only takes a relatively small number percentage wise to again put extreme pressure on the NHS. Very few of these people will eventually die but many may suffer from long covid and will again take up a lot of resource for the NHS when they are in hospital.

5% vulnerable to a virus with a 1% mortality rate is an acceptable risk. There are far greater risks in the modern day, such as obesity and motor cars.

 

[dazzer6666]

It is predominantly the old and the vulnerable still because there are still a significant amount of people who for health or personal reasons have still not been vaccinated, we know that 95% of groups 1-9 priority were vaccinated but that still leaves 1.5m people who are very vulnerable and if on 21st June all measures are dropped the covid virus will quickly spread again, and many chains which will not be broken by social distancing and other mwearues will end with a vulnerable person becoming infected. It will also at that point infect many young people, the vast majority of which will be unaffected but I believe that in Brazil for example half of the people in hospital are under 40, so whilst it will be a very small percentage of the people who become ill because of the number of unvaccinated people under 40 in thew UK it only takes a relatively small number percentage wise to again put extreme pressure on the NHS. Very few of these people will eventually die but many may suffer from long covid and will again take up a lot of resource for the NHS when they are in hospital.

Anyone old and/or vulnerable who hasn't had the vaccine will need to shield in the event of a significant outbreak. The rest of the country, where the very vast majority are going to be safe from serious illness, can't be paralysed to protect the tiny minority. All adults will have been vaccinated by the end of July so there won't be an 'under 40' problem.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

We must be close to the point we ditch daily stats being published?

I love the daily stats. I hope they continue to be available.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

I love the daily stats. I hope they continue to be available.

You can still find them, as you can most other illnesses/deaths

But we need to move away from them published in papers/media daily

 

[dazzer6666]

You can still find them, as you can most other illnesses/deaths

But we need to move away from them published in papers/media daily

....or change the narrative to a more positive tone

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

....or change the narrative to a more positive tone

That also works - either or.

 

[dazzer6666]

That also works - either or.

I still think there must be govt influence behind the reporting to help try to maintain the caution/compliance with lockdown measures - otherwise the media would be lauding the '98% reduction in deaths and hospitalisations' etc................wouldn't be surprised to see this start to get relaxed at least a bit very soon as we approach the next easing milestones. The current manner in which things are reported is bordering on odd now given how the data has moved - for example the BBC state things like '....and there have been a further 10 deaths reported taking the total to 140k' without a mention of how 10 deaths a day compares with the peak, what the rolling 7 day rate is now etc.

 

[darkwolf666]

....or change the narrative to a more positive tone

This 100%, stop publishing figures and the conspiracy nuts will have a field day...

 

[atomised]

I still think there must be govt influence behind the reporting to help try to maintain the caution/compliance with lockdown measures - otherwise the media would be lauding the '98% reduction in deaths and hospitalisations' etc................wouldn't be surprised to see this start to get relaxed at least a bit very soon as we approach the next easing milestones. The current manner in which things are reported is bordering on odd now given how the data has moved - for example the BBC state things like '....and there have been a further 10 deaths reported taking the total to 140k' without a mention of how 10 deaths a day compares with the peak, what the rolling 7 day rate is now etc.

The wording of the reports seems focussed still on making it sound terrible and of course all deaths are but sometimes I read the reports and it feels like they are trying to make 10 sound as bad as a thousand

 

[nicko31]

Things getting horribly bad in India.

Finally on the UK red list today at 4am 3 weeks after Pakistan and Bangladesh, way too late. Just hope we don't live to regret this, a lot of unknowns still about their variant

Situation over there is utter desperate, hospitals overwhelmed, out of oxygen, meanwhile elections are going ahead with huge campaign gatherings, crazy..

 

[nicko31]

Vietnam the poor country that defied the experts and sealed its border to keep Covid-19 out. It worked.

https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/22...travel-restrictions?__twitter_impression=true

In the UK we are getting there but cases worldwide still going through the roof

Is it too late to do something similar until things are under control? We're an island, we could do it.

Does the risk / reward really add up this summer for International travel?

 

[e77]

Statistics aren't positive or negative, they are just stats.

 

[LamieRobertson]

I wouldn’t have wanted it to happen this way ..but I’ve had two weeks of zero ‘scam calls’ from India ..whereas I get at least one a day..I’m assuming it’s because of current COVID events in that country

 

[dazzer6666]

From the DT :

The public should be able to ditch face masks over the summer as vaccines do the heavy lifting in controlling Covid-19, Government scientific advisers believe.

Step four of the Government's road map for England currently states that all legal limits on social contact will be removed by June 21 at the earliest, when restrictions on large events such as festivals are also expected to ease.

Scientists advising the Government say there is nothing currently in the data to suggest that people will not be able to enjoy a relatively normal summer, though coronavirus cases may well rise as the autumn approaches.

Asked about mask-wearing in the coming months, one source said that vaccines are working so well, and there is such good vaccine uptake among members of the public, that things will return to much more like normal life over the summer months, with cases dropping very low, particularly in May.

 

[beorhthelm]

This 100%, stop publishing figures and the conspiracy nuts will have a field day...

ONS publishes reams of data every week/month. the daily figures go back to being another update in that sea, available for all interested to track. what we dont need is BBC giving the daily count on the news.

 

[beorhthelm]

Vietnam the poor country that defied the experts and sealed its border to keep Covid-19 out. It worked.

https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/22...travel-restrictions?__twitter_impression=true

In the UK we are getting there but cases worldwide still going through the roof

Is it too late to do something similar until things are under control? We're an island, we could do it.

Does the risk / reward really add up this summer for International travel?

how much travel is there in and out of Vietnam? not really comparable to modern western country.

we enjoy an awful lot of travel normally, being an island is of little consequence. we could cut out the holiday market at a stoke but thats a courageous decision if rates are low and other countries are allowing tourists in. people see their holidays as a right these days. we probably should have had some stricter rules, would be odd to apply them now as rates cut and vaccines become common.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Vietnam the poor country that defied the experts and sealed its border to keep Covid-19 out. It worked.

https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/22...travel-restrictions?__twitter_impression=true

In the UK we are getting there but cases worldwide still going through the roof

Is it too late to do something similar until things are under control? We're an island, we could do it.

Does the risk / reward really add up this summer for International travel?

The traffic light system is fine and a balanced approach.

 

[Weststander]

I wouldn’t have wanted it to happen this way ..but I’ve had two weeks of zero ‘scam calls’ from India ..whereas I get at least one a day..I’m assuming it’s because of current COVID events in that country

They've been calling me instead .

 

[Weststander]

how much travel is there in and out of Vietnam? not really comparable to modern western country.

we enjoy an awful lot of travel normally, being an island is of little consequence. we could cut out the holiday market at a stoke but thats a courageous decision if rates are low and other countries are allowing tourists in. people see their holidays as a right these days. we probably should have had some stricter rules, would be odd to apply them now as rates cut and vaccines become common.

It's no coincidence that Italy, UK, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, France and latterly Germany have suffered from COVID throughout. Also, the USA.

Hubs of travel and holidays, business, trade, densely populated areas, multi cultural (family links to many other nations) and by global standards affluent facilitating the cross border travel.