Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Rugrat]

From Sky News:

"There is currently "no evidence" the Indian COVID variant can evade vaccines, the environment secretary has said, amid calls for India to be added to the government's "red list".

The UK has recorded 77 cases of the "double mutant" variant, which is currently being reviewed by British scientists.

George Eustice told Sky's Sophy Ridge On Sunday that although it is "a fairly small number at the moment - it is something that we are watching".

The environment secretary added: "I'm told there is no evidence at the moment this particular variant is able to get around the vaccine or... that it is necessarily more contagious than the others - but we are looking at it, it will be studied.""

There's a politician for you ... so poorly dodging the issue.

"I am told" = nothing to do with me
"fairly small" = what's your issue?
"no evidence at moment" = no detailed testing yet, so we'll make an assumption in the meantime
"it will be studied" = once it's overwhelming us

 

[Billy the Fish]

There's a politician for you ... so poorly dodging the issue.

"I am told" = nothing to do with me
"fairly small" = what's your issue?
"no evidence at moment" = no detailed testing yet, so we'll make an assumption in the meantime
"it will be studied" = once it's overwhelming us

There's a good reason politicians have to talk like that and it's the same for both sides. What else can he possibly say at this point?

 

[Rugrat]

There's a good reason politicians have to talk like that and it's the same for both sides. What else can he possibly say at this point?

How about 'we're extremely concerned about the rapid rise in cases in India and we're unsure how our vaccines will deal with the new variant we are seeing and so we are immediately putting India into the red category until we know more'

Nah, that would inconvenience people and Boris is going there next week to try and drum up a bit of business

 

[atomised]

How about 'we're extremely concerned about the rapid rise in cases in India and we're unsure how our vaccines will deal with the new variant we are seeing and so we are immediately putting India into the red category until we know more'

Nah, that would inconvenience people and Boris is going there next week to try and drum up a bit of business

Thought Boris had now pulled out of that trip

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Thought Boris had now pulled out of that trip

He has.

 

[Rugrat]

Thought Boris had now pulled out of that trip

fairynuff

 

[nwgull]

India is a good example of what can happen if restrictions are lifted too early. Their numbers were looking really good a month or 2 ago. It’s a disaster over there now.

 

[Billy the Fish]

I'm surprised that India lasted as long as they did without a terrible covid situation given their population density.

I read in the news that 400million people were being pushed into even worse poverty by the restrictions, in a country where so many people live hand to mouth it's an impossible balancing act they've got to do.

 

[nicko31]

Glad to see India put on the red list, but why wait another 4 days, it needs to be done NOW

 

[A1X]

India is a good example of what can happen if restrictions are lifted too early. Their numbers were looking really good a month or 2 ago. It’s a disaster over there now.

They had fans in the ground during the recent England test series

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Mrs T has just told me that Covid-denier, Ted Nugent, has got Covid.

Let's hope he makes a speedy recovery.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Glad to see India put on the red list, but why wait another 4 days, it needs to be done NOW

Par for the course with Boris. Yesterday morning his spokesperson was saying there was no need to bring in any restrictions yet 'because we don't yet know if the new strain is more or less virulent'. That was a lie. They simply hadn't got their plans together because they a dithery and incompetant. Sorry to make a political point on this thread but....how many more times?

 

[crodonilson]

India is a good example of what can happen if restrictions are lifted too early. Their numbers were looking really good a month or 2 ago. It’s a disaster over there now.

A very salient point. We need to tread very, very carefully.

Only today a JCVI committee member is warning that a new wave in the UK this summer is inevitable, at a time when many millions will still be unvaccinated, let rip models suggest that it could kill between 30,000 and 100,000 more.

 

[e77]

A very salient point. We need to tread very, very carefully.

Only today a JCVI committee member is warning that a new wave in the UK this summer is inevitable, at a time when many millions will still be unvaccinated, let rip models suggest that it could kill between 30,000 and 100,000 more.

Unless a vaccine resistant variant reaches this country I would very much question those figures as most of the population at a high risk of dying would have been vaccinated by Summer.

 

[beorhthelm]

A very salient point. We need to tread very, very carefully.

Only today a JCVI committee member is warning that a new wave in the UK this summer is inevitable, at a time when many millions will still be unvaccinated, let rip models suggest that it could kill between 30,000 and 100,000 more.

as someone who has looked at the models and knows people who deal with the data, thats bobbins. its fear mongering by those that want to take worse case scenarios and treat them as high probability. the likely case scenario is similar to last year, and with vaccinations, less.

 

[crodonilson]

as someone who has looked at the models and knows people who deal with the data, thats bobbins. its fear mongering by those that want to take worse case scenarios and treat them as high probability. the likely case scenario is similar to last year, and with vaccinations, less.

Even though social distancing is due to drop entirely from 21st June and the variance is 50%+ more transmissible than what we had last summer?

 

[e77]

Even though social distancing is due to drop entirely from 21st June and the variance is 50%+ more transmissible than what we had last summer?

If a new variant becomes widespread and is vaccine resistant then we are back to square one anyway. If not heard immunity would have kicked in or be very near to by Summer.

30,000 is a bad flu year so that isn't really sticking there neck out but 100,000 does seem a bit on an outlier (new variant aside).

 

[beorhthelm]

Even though social distancing is due to drop entirely from 21st June and the variance is 50%+ more transmissible than what we had last summer?

sure. 50% increase on very low is still very low. the infection rate will bubble along but with near zero fatality in those vaccinated, which covers the at risk catagories and we have had >90% uptake.

 

[dsr-burnley]

A very salient point. We need to tread very, very carefully.

Only today a JCVI committee member is warning that a new wave in the UK this summer is inevitable, at a time when many millions will still be unvaccinated, let rip models suggest that it could kill between 30,000 and 100,000 more.

On the other hand, a statistician using past data is saying that of the 30,000,000 people who have been injected with even one jab of the vaccine, a total of 38 have been ill enough to be admitted to hospital. If this virus is going to kill 100,000 people, that would be 1 out of every 300 people who have so far been considered safe. That means that if EVERY SINGLE PERSON who has not yet been jabbed gets the virus, and its virulence among that group is 5 or 10 times stronger than it was before, then we could get to 100,000.

 

[crodonilson]

On the other hand, a statistician using past data is saying that of the 30,000,000 people who have been injected with even one jab of the vaccine, a total of 38 have been ill enough to be admitted to hospital. If this virus is going to kill 100,000 people, that would be 1 out of every 300 people who have so far been considered safe. That means that if EVERY SINGLE PERSON who has not yet been jabbed gets the virus, and its virulence among that group is 5 or 10 times stronger than it was before, then we could get to 100,000.

You're not comparing apples with apples though, 38 people were ill enough to be admitted into hospital during a lockdown where people were told to only leave their homes for the most essential reasons. This summer there is likely to be much more social mixing, and much more virus circulating mean all of these vaccinated and all of the unvaccinated people will be far more likely to come into contact with the virus so sadly that figure will shoot up.