Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[nwgull]

Schools will of course mean a rise, however it’s worth remembering that the R number is simply a reflection of increased numbers testing positive and doesn’t reflect the fact that the number of tests we’ve been doing has nearly doubled between the two periods they’ve measured the R rate for, week on week the numbers testing positive is very stable, in spite of such a massive increase in testing..

I think that the R number is calculated based on random testing as much as anything. They’d certainly account for the increased testing numbers anyway.

You’re right though, it will inevitably rise amongst school-age kids. What’s important is that they’re not vulnerable and that hospitalisations and deaths continue to fall (although these lag actual infections by 3-4 weeks).

 

[nwgull]

The BBC site shows that Corby has gone above the 200 new cases a day again, the first population unit in the UK to do so.

Wikipedia says this about Corby:

"According to the 2001 Census the proportion of the working age population with degree-level qualifications (8.5%) is the lowest of all areas in England and Wales. 39.3% have no GCSE-equivalent qualifications at all. The borough of Corby has the highest rate of teenage pregnancy in the East Midlands, outside of the metropolitan boroughs (unitary authorities), although Lincoln is very similar."

Who knew?

Heavy vote-Leave area too, coincidentally.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

All this talk of the steps out of lockdown being 'irreversible' is clearly complete bollox and needs treating with the contempt it fully deserves

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

All this talk of the steps out of lockdown being 'irreversible' is clearly complete bollox and needs treating with the contempt it fully deserves

If we go back into lockdown the vaccine hasn’t worked, if that’s the case we need to learn to live with it anyway.

Oddly there has been a slight shift from having to lockdown because of covid and now having to lock down because of a superflu caused by the lockdown

 

[crodonilson]

I think this is the last lockdown but if that is to be the case we will have to compromise with tough and swift local lockdowns where cases flare up and the success of track and trace, isolation and some other precautionary measures for some time to come.

 

[dazzer6666]

I think this is the last lockdown but if that is to be the case we will have to compromise with tough and swift local lockdowns where cases flare up and the success of track and trace, isolation and some other precautionary measures for some time to come.

If it’s not leading to any dramatic increase in hospitalisations or deaths then we won’t need to.

 

[dsr-burnley]

I think this is the last lockdown but if that is to be the case we will have to compromise with tough and swift local lockdowns where cases flare up and the success of track and trace, isolation and some other precautionary measures for some time to come.

No we won't. There is no need to have lockdowns every time a largely non-fatal disease flares up. We don't do it for colds, we don't do it for flu, and assuming the vaccine continues to do its job, we won't do it for coronavirus.

 

[BeHereNow]

This should make you all feel better.
https://mobile.twitter.com/abirballan/status/1367520791559081984

 

[Billy the Fish]

Does anyone else feel like we're being too cautious in lifting restrictions?

Denmark have already said they'll lift restrictions once all over 50s have had one dose, Germany are making similar noises.

As it is we'll probably lose any advantage of the quick vaccination roll out.
The flip side is that by June there should be hardly any covid left in the UK to transmit, but at what cost to the economy

 

[dazzer6666]

Does anyone else feel like we're being too cautious in lifting restrictions?

Denmark have already said they'll lift restrictions once all over 50s have had one dose, Germany are making similar noises.

As it is we'll probably lose any advantage of the quick vaccination roll out.
The flip side is that by June there should be hardly any covid left in the UK to transmit, but at what cost to the economy

I think we're right to err on the side of caution.........really don't want to go through all this again. Plan looks pretty sensible to me with some calculated risk - get as many people vaccinated as we can before we slacken off too much. We can cope with a few more weeks (with at least some gradual easing) after so long in this mess. Even the gradual easing is going to seem like a great release after the last 3 months

 

[beorhthelm]

Does anyone else feel like we're being too cautious in lifting restrictions?

Denmark have already said they'll lift restrictions once all over 50s have had one dose, Germany are making similar noises.

As it is we'll probably lose any advantage of the quick vaccination roll out.
The flip side is that by June there should be hardly any covid left in the UK to transmit, but at what cost to the economy

probably too cautious, though we've had a year of people kicking the government for being too relaxed, too late, so they try a different tack.

 

[Hotchilidog]

Does anyone else feel like we're being too cautious in lifting restrictions?

Denmark have already said they'll lift restrictions once all over 50s have had one dose, Germany are making similar noises.

As it is we'll probably lose any advantage of the quick vaccination roll out.
The flip side is that by June there should be hardly any covid left in the UK to transmit, but at what cost to the economy

I'd say no. As frustrating as it may seem at the moment we are finally making great strides with hospital admissions and deaths. Doubling down on those as the vaccination roll out continues does make sense to me. I think it gives us our best chance of really opening up on June 21, and making it stick.

The last mile can quite often seem the longest one, but a bit of patience and we'll get there.

 

[LamieRobertson]

I think we're right to err on the side of caution.........really don't want to go through all this again. Plan looks pretty sensible to me with some calculated risk - get as many people vaccinated as we can before we slacken off too much. We can cope with a few more weeks (with at least some gradual easing) after so long in this mess. Even the gradual easing is going to seem like a great release after the last 3 months

I’d say to somewhere in between

Nice little one today from one of my favourite Twitter accounts @WhittyShadesOfGrey

If you’re not sure how to behave in public today, you can read my books, ‘The Joy of Six’ and ‘Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Six But Were Afraid to Ask’ (both available in pop-up editions).

 

[crodonilson]

No we won't. There is no need to have lockdowns every time a largely non-fatal disease flares up. We don't do it for colds, we don't do it for flu, and assuming the vaccine continues to do its job, we won't do it for coronavirus.

Surely one thing we have learned over the past 12 months is void is not the flu or the common cold. Neither of them have killed upwards of 125,000 people in 12 months even in spite of numerous lockdowns and measures.

As society opens up there is not a uniform coverage of protection, many communities have had fairly low takeup of the vaccines and will be vulnerable, I think it is inevitable that if and when these areas see substantial numbers of fairly localised cases there will need to be lockdowns to stamp out these hotspots before they spread further nationally.

 

[Billy the Fish]

The last mile can quite often seem the longest one, but a bit of patience and we'll get there.

Yes, I suspect this is where I'm at!

 

[LamieRobertson]

Surely one thing we have learned over the past 12 months is void is not the flu or the common cold. Neither of them have killed upwards of 125,000 people in 12 months even in spite of numerous lockdowns and measures.

As society opens up there is not a uniform coverage of protection, many communities have had fairly low takeup of the vaccines and will be vulnerable, I think it is inevitable that if and when these areas see substantial numbers of fairly localised cases there will need to be lockdowns to stamp out these hotspots before they spread further nationally.

.....no I best not

 

[loz]

Surely one thing we have learned over the past 12 months is void is not the flu or the common cold. Neither of them have killed upwards of 125,000 people in 12 months even in spite of numerous lockdowns and measures.

As society opens up there is not a uniform coverage of protection, many communities have had fairly low takeup of the vaccines and will be vulnerable, I think it is inevitable that if and when these areas see substantial numbers of fairly localised cases there will need to be lockdowns to stamp out these hotspots before they spread further nationally.

If hospitalization and deaths are kept low there wont be any more lockdowns....If cases spike after vaccination, we just will have to carry on we cant keep locking down, its not fair on 99.7% of people under 55.

As posted earlier.

COVID 19 presents a high risk for the very few and negligible risk for the many.

The infection fatality rate in different age groups:
<19 y, IFR= 0.003%
20-49 y: IFR= 0.02%
50-69 y: 0.5%
>70y, IFR= 5.4%

 

[dsr-burnley]

Surely one thing we have learned over the past 12 months is void is not the flu or the common cold. Neither of them have killed upwards of 125,000 people in 12 months even in spite of numerous lockdowns and measures.

As society opens up there is not a uniform coverage of protection, many communities have had fairly low takeup of the vaccines and will be vulnerable, I think it is inevitable that if and when these areas see substantial numbers of fairly localised cases there will need to be lockdowns to stamp out these hotspots before they spread further nationally.

Surely one thing we have learned over the last few weeks is that covid-when-you-have-been-vaccinated is not the same as covid-without-a-vaccine. I am simply not willing, as I suspect many more people aren't, to carry on treating Covid as if the vaccine makes no difference. Just In Case. I am more than happy to allow individuals to continue that way, in isolation, wearing masks, not going away, avoiding shops and football matches and life in general. I am not willing to do that myself, especially for a disease that with-a-vaccine is most likely no more lethal than flu.

If any "communities" have had a fairly low takeup of the vaccine and they get a deathly wave of coronavirus, then what is needed is a vaccination campaign. Show them the crowded hospital full of fools who didn't get vaccinated, and suggest they take it up. If they still choose not to, let them die. If you do get a local area like that, make the nearest hospital into covid-only and cram them in as much as necessary to avoid inconveniencing the rest of us. If there is a simple medicine to stop this disease and people choose not to take it, then my sympathy - as you see - would be severely limited.

 

[nicko31]

I think we're right to err on the side of caution.........really don't want to go through all this again. Plan looks pretty sensible to me with some calculated risk - get as many people vaccinated as we can before we slacken off too much. We can cope with a few more weeks (with at least some gradual easing) after so long in this mess. Even the gradual easing is going to seem like a great release after the last 3 months

Still only half the adult population partially vaccinated some way to go. Seem to have it about right at this stage, though I wouldn't be at all surprised to see stage 3 & 4 knocked back 4-6 weeks

One thing I don't like is gyms opening mid-April seems unwise and unnecessary with spring on the way

 

[loz]

Still only half the adult population partially vaccinated some way to go. Seem to have it about right at this stage, though I wouldn't be at all surprised to see stage 3 & 4 knocked back 4-6 weeks

One thing I don't like is gyms opening mid-April seems unwise and unnecessary with spring on the way

So more and more people losing their jobs as hospitality is pushed back to Aug / september, as well as football, that would be two seasons of no spectators at the Cricket.

No deaths in our capital city of 10 million yesterday and only 19 deaths recorded ( yes I know its a sunday) 2 summers out of my allotted 70 wasted...I would just rather crack on and enjoy, we have spent a year hiding from death while forgetting to live life.