Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[crodonilson]

To take your post re Poland which is testing 70k per day and you say positive tests are 70k per day and then you say half are coming back positive ...hmm I’m make that 35k ..being half of 70k...are you perhaps confused in your rush to get your message out?
“Inherit third wave from Europe”...pure speculation.....”the only positive is our vaccination program” ..BLOODY BIG POSITIVE ..I’d say...it’s like having a goal the size of a football pitch! ...perhaps turn off MSM and go for a walk in that lovely place you reside in...I’ve booked my weekend in September not far from Lyme Regis..looking forward to it immensely

Sorry, I should have made myself clearer. They are getting 35k positive cases a day, in comparison of population size with the UK that would be almost 70k cases daily here. It is however true they are only doing 70,000 daily tests so the true figure will be much, much greater. I think when we had our spike in early January we were doing some 500k daily tests.

 

[nicko31]

The situation in Europe is extremely concerning, the adage is very true that we're not safe here until the whole world is safe (and even truer that our near neighbours are safe). Take the Polish data and with a country that has just over half of the population of ours their equivalent positive tests are now nearly 70,000 per day and still rising. They are also only testing approximately 70,000 per day so nearly half of all tests are coming back as positive. The numbers in the UK creeping up will almost inevitably increase much quicker as lockdown eases and we inherit the third wave from Europe, the only positive on this is our vaccination programme means this should have less affect on our healthcare system and deaths but the impact could still be substantial.

Some say you are being alarmist but I think you are right to be concerned, this game is far from over.

The Kent variant has well and truly taken hold in some EU countries but its the SA and Brazil variant that concern me, in France its more an just a handful of cases. Typically 10%, but more like 35% in Moselle department

 

[Mellotron]

The situation in Europe is extremely concerning, the adage is very true that we're not safe here until the whole world is safe (and even truer that our near neighbours are safe). Take the Polish data and with a country that has just over half of the population of ours their equivalent positive tests are now nearly 70,000 per day and still rising. They are also only testing approximately 70,000 per day so nearly half of all tests are coming back as positive. The numbers in the UK creeping up will almost inevitably increase much quicker as lockdown eases and we inherit the third wave from Europe, the only positive on this is our vaccination programme means this should have less affect on our healthcare system and deaths but the impact could still be substantial.

There's so much misinformation/needless scaremongering in the second half of your post.

What's the point of trying to scare the shit out of people over something that there's a decent chance won't happen? Genuine question - what is achieved?

We've vaccinated near 80-90% of potential future deaths now - "the only positive" like it isn't a massive one! They're seeing a wave because they've barely started vaccinating whilst having looser lockdowns than ours. The third wave started here, Europe inherited it from us not the other way round. There's no logical reason to think the strain that has already spread and peaked here will come back and do anything like the same again in a population with a far, far higher level of immunity.

For the sake of your own and other people's mental health, please stop catastrophising.

 

[crodonilson]

There's so much misinformation/needless scaremongering in the second half of your post.

What's the point of trying to scare the shit out of people over something that there's a decent chance won't happen? Genuine question - what is achieved?

We've vaccinated near 80-90% of potential future deaths now - "the only positive" like it isn't a massive one! They're seeing a wave because they've barely started vaccinating whilst having looser lockdowns than ours. The third wave started here, Europe inherited it from us not the other way round. There's no logical reason to think the strain that has already spread and peaked here will come back and do anything like the same again in a population with a far, far higher level of immunity.

For the sake of your own and other people's mental health, please stop catastrophising.

Isn't the board about debate? You share a different opinion, many scientists who probably know more than you or I about it expect there is an inevitability the wave in Europe will transfer over here but the good news is because of our huge success in vaccination the impact will be much less severe, but if/when this happens there is bound to be some impact. I'm not trying to scare anyone, I doubt anyone is anymore scared than I am about the virus. It may be that despite large increases in transmission, if it does not lead to increased hospital admissions the roadmap out of lockdown will stay on track.

 

[Mellotron]

I doubt anyone is anymore scared than I am about the virus.

We can agree on that at least.

Yes healthy debate is good, but you do seem to lean towards catastrophising quite a lot, which isn't good for your mental health, nor others. That's all. Look after yourself.

 

[Silverhatch]

Rarely post on this thread and I'm sure it's been covered but I've just read that Covid's reproduction rate is 3 compared to seasonal flu's 1.3. Best estimates say Spanish Flu's R rate was 1.8. It really is a BUGGER when it comes to transmission/infection. Aggressive and constantly developed/tweaked vaccines will be the new (hopefully short term) norm.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Rarely post on this thread and I'm sure it's been covered but I've just read that Covid's reproduction rate is 3 compared to seasonal flu's 1.3. Best estimates say Spanish Flu's R rate was 1.8. It really is a BUGGER when it comes to transmission/infection. Aggressive and constantly developed/tweaked vaccines will be the new (hopefully short term) norm.

Where did you get that from?..Could you perhaps elaborate on that particular choice of word .....tweaking maybe....but as has already been stated the existing one has/is coping

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

The BBC site shows that Corby has gone above the 200 new cases a day again, the first population unit in the UK to do so.

Wikipedia says this about Corby:

"According to the 2001 Census the proportion of the working age population with degree-level qualifications (8.5%) is the lowest of all areas in England and Wales. 39.3% have no GCSE-equivalent qualifications at all. The borough of Corby has the highest rate of teenage pregnancy in the East Midlands, outside of the metropolitan boroughs (unitary authorities), although Lincoln is very similar."

Who knew?

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Isn't the board about debate? You share a different opinion, many scientists who probably know more than you or I about it expect there is an inevitability the wave in Europe will transfer over here but the good news is because of our huge success in vaccination the impact will be much less severe, but if/when this happens there is bound to be some impact. I'm not trying to scare anyone, I doubt anyone is anymore scared than I am about the virus. It may be that despite large increases in transmission, if it does not lead to increased hospital admissions the roadmap out of lockdown will stay on track.

You are a sublime jester on NSC. Your posts on the Covid thread have been very particular. I hope this isn't another of your jokes. I'll assume not. Very best wishes to you. I suspect that our aggressive vaccination regime will have a massive effect versus the faffing in the rest of the world.

 

[The Wizard]

I’d love to know just how this is possible, 4 states lifting most restrictions and mask mandates, none have seen any rises in hospitalisations 3+ weeks later, perhaps the cotton face nappies are not much use after all?

https://twitter.com/ianmsc/status/1375552170825711616?s=21

 

[Weststander]

The BBC site shows that Corby has gone above the 200 new cases a day again, the first population unit in the UK to do so.

Wikipedia says this about Corby:

"According to the 2001 Census the proportion of the working age population with degree-level qualifications (8.5%) is the lowest of all areas in England and Wales. 39.3% have no GCSE-equivalent qualifications at all. The borough of Corby has the highest rate of teenage pregnancy in the East Midlands, outside of the metropolitan boroughs (unitary authorities), although Lincoln is very similar."

Who knew?

R rates increasing in Scotland!

Various epidemiologists in TV and radio interviews today said that we should expect to see rises in case numbers now.

In effect, part of the plan as we unlock restrictions, with most vulnerable folk safe. It’s inevitable.

Their suspicion was that these slightly earlier than expected increases, stem families mixing ahead of when lawful, encouraged by the vaccine programme, unable to hold on.

No concerns were raised,

 

[Weststander]

I’d love to know just how this is possible, 4 states lifting most restrictions and mask mandates, none have seen any rises in hospitalisations 3+ weeks later, perhaps the cotton face nappies are not much use after all?

https://twitter.com/ianmsc/status/1375552170825711616?s=21

I’ve followed individual states throughout. Just asking, does incredibly low population density help eg in the Dakotas and Montana?

Some of those states and others, with few restrictions, per capita seemed to have fared barely touched by the pandemic.

 

[The Wizard]

R rates increasing in Scotland!

Various epidemiologists in TV and radio interviews today said that we should expect to see rises in case numbers now.

In effect, part of the plan as we unlock restrictions, with most vulnerable folk safe. It’s inevitable.

Their suspicion was that these slightly earlier than expected increases, stem families mixing ahead of when lawful, encouraged by the vaccine programme, unable to hold on.

No concerns were raised,

Schools will of course mean a rise, however it’s worth remembering that the R number is simply a reflection of increased numbers testing positive and doesn’t reflect the fact that the number of tests we’ve been doing has nearly doubled between the two periods they’ve measured the R rate for, week on week the numbers testing positive is very stable, in spite of such a massive increase in testing.

I’ve followed individual states throughout. Just asking, does incredibly low population density help eg in the Dakotas and Montana?

Some of those states and others, with few restrictions, per capita seemed to have fared barely touched by the pandemic.

I would guess having a sparse population would help in general terms, but to see no spikes after mask mandates are lifted is very surprising given how people in America (Fauci etc) called the Texan governor basically a murderer, yet there has been no increase at all. I know in some states masks although not mandated, are being used but it’s being left up to personal choice and personal risk assessment.

 

[middletoenail]

I’d love to know just how this is possible, 4 states lifting most restrictions and mask mandates, none have seen any rises in hospitalisations 3+ weeks later, perhaps the cotton face nappies are not much use after all?

https://twitter.com/ianmsc/status/1375552170825711616?s=21

Did you just read the tweet and not look at the pictures? Look at the trend a few weeks after.

 

[crodonilson]

You are a sublime jester on NSC. Your posts on the Covid thread have been very particular. I hope this isn't another of your jokes. I'll assume not. Very best wishes to you. I suspect that our aggressive vaccination regime will have a massive effect versus the faffing in the rest of the world.

I hope so too, within a matter of 3 months we've gone from the most desperate situation in Europe to the best. We know however how quickly things can change, Germany us bracing itself for as many as 100,000 daily cases unchecked, we need to do all we can to keep the desperate situation on the continent away from our door.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Did you just read the tweet and not look at the pictures? Look at the trend a few weeks after.

Those charts go up to about 17th March. There is no "few weeks after".

 

[Weststander]

I hope so too, within a matter of 3 months we've gone from the most desperate situation in Europe to the best. We know however how quickly things can change, Germany us bracing itself for as many as 100,000 daily cases unchecked, we need to do all we can to keep the desperate situation on the continent away from our door.

I wonder if vaccine hesitancy can be overcome on the continent?

For example, the BBC explained today that the French and the French speaking Walloons in Belgium, wear defiance as a badge of honour when it comes to resisting rules from above including vaccination.

 

[Solid at the back]

The situation in Europe is extremely concerning, the adage is very true that we're not safe here until the whole world is safe (and even truer that our near neighbours are safe). Take the Polish data and with a country that has just over half of the population of ours their equivalent positive tests are now nearly 70,000 per day and still rising. They are also only testing approximately 70,000 per day so nearly half of all tests are coming back as positive. The numbers in the UK creeping up will almost inevitably increase much quicker as lockdown eases and we inherit the third wave from Europe, the only positive on this is our vaccination programme means this should have less affect on our healthcare system and deaths but the impact could still be substantial.

Can this guy be banned please? He comes on he to put fear into people and doesn't quote sources

 

[crodonilson]

I wonder if vaccine hesitancy can be overcome on the continent?

For example, the BBC explained today that the French and the French speaking Walloons in Belgium, wear defiance as a badge of honour when it comes to resisting rules from above including vaccination.

View attachment 135329

You'd hope so but given the way the EU has handled the vaccination programme it's no surprise there is hesitancy amongst it's population, it has been nothing short of a disgrace.

 

[nicko31]

You'd hope so but given the way the EU has handled the vaccination programme it's no surprise there is hesitancy amongst it's population, it has been nothing short of a disgrace.

Really don't get the vaccine hesitancy, hopefully they will get a grip

I have a French friend who lives locally wasn't going to take their Oxford jab, in the end I persuaded the individual but they were adamant there significant risk.

Any risk is so tiny compared to other everyday activities in life