Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Kinky Gerbil]

Still only half the adult population partially vaccinated some way to go. Seem to have it about right at this stage, though I wouldn't be at all surprised to see stage 3 & 4 knocked back 4-6 weeks

One thing I don't like is gyms opening mid-April seems unwise and unnecessary with spring on the way

So the at risk are mostly (if not all) vaccinated to a level that offers very good protection and we should knock back re-opening?

Why are gyms an issue? I think there was 3/4 cases picked up when they opened before, mainly younger and fitter people go there.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Still only half the adult population partially vaccinated some way to go. Seem to have it about right at this stage, though I wouldn't be at all surprised to see stage 3 & 4 knocked back 4-6 weeks

One thing I don't like is gyms opening mid-April seems unwise and unnecessary with spring on the way

Going by data more readings to bring it forward not back and as others have said there is more than one side to current restrictions

 

[nicko31]

So the at risk are mostly (if not all) vaccinated to a level that offers very good protection and we should knock back re-opening?

Why are gyms an issue? I think there was 3/4 cases picked up when they opened before, mainly younger and fitter people go there.

Not sure where you got 3/4 cases, hard to prove

Gyms are often poorly ventilated, have loads of touch points, heavy breathing etc.....one of the worse of indoor environments for transmission

I'd rather see this sector propped up for a fair more weeks until we reach herd immunity. Until then go for a run, go to the park, being outside is far healthier anyway...

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Not sure where you got 3/4 cases, hard to prove

Gyms are often poorly ventilated, have loads of touch points, heavy breathing etc.....one of the worse of indoor environments for transmission

I'd rather see this sector propped up for a fair more weeks until we reach herd immunity. Until then go for a run, go to the park, being outside is far healthier anyway...

Most gyms are now open spaces with areas you can open and if you ventured into the gym last summer the stench of anti bac was the main smell and had mass cleaning.

The idea we delay with the current data is ridiculous, even more so in an area as pointed out is a younger fitter crowd who are not affected.

If people don’t want to risk it, that’s fine.

 

[nicko31]

Most gyms are now open spaces with areas you can open and if you ventured into the gym last summer the stench of anti bac was the main smell and had mass cleaning.

The idea we delay with the current data is ridiculous, even more so in an area as pointed out is a younger fitter crowd who are not affected.

If people don’t want to risk it, that’s fine.

You can of course use as much anti bac as you like but it doesn't stop aerosol transmission, a gym outside carries 1/20 of the risk of transmission indoors. Some gyms are in big halls others actually quite cramped. How many young people in these gyms are vaccination right now almost zero...

Still circa 5k cases per day and not falling. Stay outdoors folks till we're all vaccinated...

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

You can of course use as much anti bac as you like but it doesn't stop aerosol transmission, a gym outside carries 1/20 of the risk of transmission indoors. Some gyms are in big halls others actually quite cramped. How many young people in these gyms are vaccination right now almost zero...

Still circa 5k cases per day and not falling. Stay outdoors folks till we're all vaccinated...

How many young people without conditions (now vaccinated) have died from covid

1 in 10k chance now of being hospitalised now according to the presser.

5k new cases is nothing and hospitalisations are still falling

Sage are happy with the plan - thankfully we are heading towards personal choice again.

 

[Poojah]

How many young people without conditions (now vaccinated) have died from covid

1 in 10k chance now of being hospitalised now according to the presser.

5k new cases is nothing and hospitalisations are still falling

Sage are happy with the plan - thankfully we are heading towards personal choice again.

It feels like we're in a sensible but cautious place in terms of easing the lockdown. Evidently, case numbers are currently way higher than were they were when we eased things last summer, however the vast majority of those who would've been liable to suffer badly are now significantly protected, and that's absolutely crucial.

Still, I can see why things are happening in the order they are. If this goes wrong anywhere, and let's be positive - there's no guarantee it will, indoor venues are likely to be the main trigger. It now seems readily accepted that the risk of transmission outdoor is miniscule, whilst surface contamination as a transmission method also now seems to be highly in doubt - the virus survives on surfaces for long periods, but it's probably not getting into anyone's respiratory system that way.

At the very least, by staggering things in the way that has been planned, you have a clearer idea as to where the problems are (should they occur). I'm pretty confident that the easing from 12th April will go largely without a hitch - the protests and packed beaches of last summer are good anecdotal evidence of the safety of outdoor settings. I'm also pretty confident that the reopening of indoor settings from the middle of May will see a spike in cases, however I struggle to see how that is going to lead to mass death this time around. I suspect that's the honest hope and expectation of our scientific experts, however I can fully understand their nervousness and reluctance to say as much.

Like Boris, I'm looking forward to irreversibly drinking a pint in a couple of weeks time, though should it all go tits up at least it won't be the first to have reversed on me.

 

[crodonilson]

How many young people without conditions (now vaccinated) have died from covid

1 in 10k chance now of being hospitalised now according to the presser.

5k new cases is nothing and hospitalisations are still falling

Sage are happy with the plan - thankfully we are heading towards personal choice again.

I don't think the issue is that they themselves will fall ill but they could well be asymptomatic and as younger, fitter people are probably more likely to have more social contact within or outside of the current freedoms granted, and often at the end of any chain of transmission is a vulnerable person.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

I don't think the issue is that they themselves will fall ill but they could well be asymptomatic and as younger, fitter people are probably more likely to have more social contact within or outside of the current freedoms granted, and often at the end of any chain of transmission is a vulnerable person.

Who have now been vaccinated!

 

[crodonilson]

Who have now been vaccinated!

Plenty have, the vaccine is not perfect so won't protect everyone, but a lot haven't due to poor take up in some communities due to mistrust and some simply cannot take it because of health reasons. We are still a long way from this age group being fully vaccinated after both doses and the 3 weeks lag for the vaccines to become effective.

 

[dsr-burnley]

I don't think the issue is that they themselves will fall ill but they could well be asymptomatic and as younger, fitter people are probably more likely to have more social contact within or outside of the current freedoms granted, and often at the end of any chain of transmission is a vulnerable person.

I think we are approaching the "someone might get run over by a bus, so should we abolish buses" territory here. There is a point where the needs of people who can't safely cross roads and the needs of those who need to travel, have to be balanced up. Those who cannot safely cross roads without being hit by a bus will have to take additional precautions.

Same with people vulnerable to coronavirus. They will have to take precautions on their own account, which may involve continuing to stay indoors or simply restricting themselves to avoiding crowds and wearing a mask, but sooner or later (and I think sooner) the needs of everyone else will be weighed in the balance against the needs of the few remaining vulnerable people, and the balance will come out on the "restrictions ended" side.

 

[Poojah]

I don't think the issue is that they themselves will fall ill but they could well be asymptomatic and as younger, fitter people are probably more likely to have more social contact within or outside of the current freedoms granted, and often at the end of any chain of transmission is a vulnerable person.

Two things here. First and foremost, as has been pointed out, an overwhelming majority of people who would have been considered vulnerable are now vaccinated an largely protected. Yes, as you have gone on to point out, there are a small element who have either not been vaccinated or have but for some reason do not have adequate protection, however the number of potentially vulnerable people who find themselves at the end of the transmission change is now a tiny fraction of what it was historically.

Secondly, we now have real confidence that vaccines significantly stem transmission. This means that any transmission chain is going to be massively blunted, and in particular is likely to be snuffed out as it moves closer to those at risk - Covid is not, God forbid, going to run amok in care homes anymore, and dear old Doris is substantially less likely to pick it up from a casual trip to the supermarket to be able to pass it on to her beloved husband Aflred when she gets home.

Remember, this is not an exercise in saving EVERYONE. That sounds callous, but it's just the nature of how we live because we have to. We could cut road deaths, cancer deaths, deaths from domestic violence, all kinds of deaths, by imposing strict limits on how we live. Make the motorway speed limit 30mph, ban cigarettes (actually not such a bad idea that one) and processed meat, ban alcohol consumption. It's all eminently achievable, but the collective sacrifice for society wouldn't be deemed worth it. This is no different, once we get to a point where illness and death on a massive scale can be managed and consistently avoided, we will move on from this. We simply have to.

 

[nicko31]

I don't think the issue is that they themselves will fall ill but they could well be asymptomatic and as younger, fitter people are probably more likely to have more social contact within or outside of the current freedoms granted, and often at the end of any chain of transmission is a vulnerable person.

Long covid should not be underestimated, 4 cases for every UK deaths and we're still learning a lot about it. There is no time for complacency, especially amongst the unvaccinated younger population.

The government has placed all their chips on the vaccine, whilst its going great guns I'm not convinced they are ready with plan B if things go pear shaped.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Long covid should not be underestimated, 4 cases for every UK deaths and we're still learning a lot about it. There is no time for complacency, especially amongst the unvaccinated younger population.

The government has placed all their chips on the vaccine, whilst its going great guns I'm not convinced they are ready with plan B if things go pear shaped.

I heard a while back on some radio show or other that the vaccine seems to help people with long covid. Something about it causing residual pockets of the virus to be mopped up by the immune system. Obviously of course it doesn't reverse any actual damage to the body.

 

[Weststander]

Anyone else looked at the devastating pandemic numbers in some continental nations?

Hungary is reporting, scaled up to compare for example to the UK, the equivalent of 1,900 deaths per day.

Just chatting with our French neighbour, who has family in both France and Belgium, she said that vaccine hesitancy or defiance, is huge in those countries. Half of her extended family have now refused both Pfizer and OAZ.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Anyone else looked at the devastating pandemic numbers in some continental nations?

Hungary is reporting, scaled up to compare for example to the UK, the equivalent of 1,900 deaths per day.

Just chatting with our French neighbour, who has family in both France and Belgium, she said that vaccine hesitancy or defiance, is huge in those countries. Half of her extended family have now refused both Pfizer and OAZ.

Does the sputnik vaccine they imported actually work ?

 

[beorhthelm]

Does the sputnik vaccine they imported actually work ?

while maybe question the efficacy numbers (91%), the underlying tech is same as Oxford/AZ methodology so no reason to say it doesnt work.

to the numbers on continent, been watching many pass us on the cases and deaths per population. Belgium has always been ahead of us, defiance over restrictions early on. Hungry, Bulgaria and balkans up top with Czechs the worst now for deaths, very odd considering how well they dealt with first wave. on cases France, Spain, Netherlands all above now.

 

[Weststander]

Does the sputnik vaccine they imported actually work ?

The EU's planned list of approved vaccines for their community wide Vaccine Passport, will exclude all Russian and Chinese vaccines.

 

[dsr-burnley]

while maybe question the efficacy numbers (91%), the underlying tech is same as Oxford/AZ methodology so no reason to say it doesnt work.

to the numbers on continent, been watching many pass us on the cases and deaths per population. Belgium has always been ahead of us, defiance over restrictions early on. Hungry, Bulgaria and balkans up top with Czechs the worst now for deaths, very odd considering how well they dealt with first wave. on cases France, Spain, Netherlands all above now.

The number of cases data is highly dubious because nobody was counting cases in the first wave as thoroughly as they did later on, so anyone badly hit in the first wave (eg. the UK) would miss a higher proportion of cases.

As for countires that did well in the first wave doing badly in the second, that's always likely. For one, it must be harder to make the people obey their orders when there were so few adverse consequences last time round - even if those few consequences were the result of obeying the orders! Secondly, the most likely to catch it didn't get any degree of immunity in the first wave so they are still on the virus danger list for the second.

Lockdowns, I believe, can only delay the virus. Vaccination is needed to prevent it.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

The EU's planned list of approved vaccines for their community wide Vaccine Passport, will exclude all Russian and Chinese vaccines.

Bit of a bummer for any Hungarian who has had either of these vaccines

Thinking about it more I assume the reason they still have bad numbers despite the sputnik vaccine is that younger "officials" have jumped to the front of the queue for it ?