Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[dazzer6666]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...britain-will-treat-coronavirus-like-flu-says/

Lockdowns are unlikely to be needed again as Britain learns to treat coronavirus like flu, Prof Chris Whitty has said.

The chief medical officer said that up to 25,000 people die in a bad flu year without anyone noticing and that accepting some Covid deaths would be the price of keeping schools and business open and allowing people to live a "whole life".

Prof Whitty, speaking on a Royal School of Medicine webinar, said the Government would only be forced to "pull the alarm cord" if a dangerous variant arrived, against which people had no immunity and which sparked exponential growth

 

[beorhthelm]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...britain-will-treat-coronavirus-like-flu-says/

Lockdowns are unlikely to be needed again as Britain learns to treat coronavirus like flu, Prof Chris Whitty has said.

The chief medical officer said that up to 25,000 people die in a bad flu year without anyone noticing and that accepting some Covid deaths would be the price of keeping schools and business open and allowing people to live a "whole life".

Prof Whitty, speaking on a Royal School of Medicine webinar, said the Government would only be forced to "pull the alarm cord" if a dangerous variant arrived, against which people had no immunity and which sparked exponential growth

very important and welcome shift in message.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

very important and welcome shift in message.

Shame it wasn’t at a presser.

 

[LamieRobertson]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-55851074

Interesting article about possible celebrity bias in Australia

 

[Weststander]

Shame it wasn’t at a presser.

This might be by design? The 2021 approach has wisely been been to under promise and over deliver, with an unwavering roadmap.

It wouldn’t take much for a large portion of society to prematurely treat the pandemic and all the rules as good as over.

 

[crodonilson]

This might be by design? The 2021 approach has wisely been been to under promise and over deliver, with an unwavering roadmap.

It wouldn’t take much for a large portion of society to prematurely treat the pandemic and all the rules as good as over.

Absolutely.

We've seen how quickly things spiral out of control once the epidemic grows, ev n now we're only potentially a few weeks of doubling and the health service is on its knees. We need everyone to heed the rules, outdoor contact only and even then in very small groups sensibly behaved.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Absolutely.

We've seen how quickly things spiral out of control once the epidemic grows, ev n now we're only potentially a few weeks of doubling and the health service is on its knees. We need everyone to heed the rules, outdoor contact only and even then in very small groups sensibly behaved.

If only there was a vaccine or something ...

 

[nicko31]

If only there was a vaccine or something ...

There is and rollout going well, but still the majority of the UK population has not had it

Getting there but not there yet, until we’re at 80 percent the message should be avoid indoor mixing unless essential

 

[amexer]

Worry whats going on in France. New cases recently gone up to 30k plus a day and today reported 60k

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Seems like sage wanted to wait til end of April before lifting further

 

[dsr-burnley]

Seems like sage wanted to wait til end of April before lifting further

I don't think Sage wants to lift anything, ever, until they are certain that we have all achieved immortality.

They seem to be looking at last August when there were typically single figures deaths per day, and estimating that when nearly all the vulnerable have been double-vaccinated, the number of deaths will rise to perhaps 2,000 per day. If you assume 90% of the people on the vulnerable list are vaccinated successfully, that means that if everyone over 50 that hasn't been vaccinated catches the disease, and the death rate is 2% per infected person, and all these infections happen in August, then they will get their figure. (Of course, that means that in July and September there will be no deaths at all. Unless they start counting them all twice for luck.)

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

I don't think Sage wants to lift anything, ever, until they are certain that we have all achieved immortality.

Isn’t the take up amazing?

 

[Billy the Fish]

View attachment 135602

Isn’t the take up amazing?

does anyone actually still believe this nonsense from Warwick and imperial!

I might try and dig it their last models from back in Feb and compare to the reality.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

does anyone actually still believe this nonsense from Warwick and imperial!

I might try and dig it their last models from back in Feb and compare to the reality.

I don’t get why they are talking down the vaccine, we’ve seen it in action and it works

USA and Israel have trusted it, why are we suggesting otherwise

 

[LamieRobertson]

I don’t get why they are talking down the vaccine, we’ve seen it in action and it works

USA and Israel have trusted it, why are we suggesting otherwise

Also, concerns over take up....so far it’s exceeded expectations surely?

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Also, concerns over take up....so far it’s exceeded expectations surely?

Absolutely.

 

[e77]

Appropriately enough for a football forum we need to take this one game at a time. We have met the criteria so far to allow things to lockdown so just keep the effort up for a bit longer.

 

[crodonilson]

It is worrying that models seem to be predicting another surge in deaths and hospitalisations over the summer, I always thought June 21st was wildly optimistic to get back to pretty much normal. I think over the summer it is likely some restrictions may have to remain but last summer was actually pretty ok, obviously the weather helps so there will be less mixing in high risk indoors areas, we can all do our bit by making sure as much socialising and household mixing is done either in a covid secure fashion or outdoors (ideally both), we have come so far, we don't want to waste it now with another 3rd wave and we should be doing as much as possible to avoid that.

 

[Poojah]

It is worrying that models seem to be predicting another surge in deaths and hospitalisations over the summer, I always thought June 21st was wildly optimistic to get back to pretty much normal. I think over the summer it is likely some restrictions may have to remain but last summer was actually pretty ok, obviously the weather helps so there will be less mixing in high risk indoors areas, we can all do our bit by making sure as much socialising and household mixing is done either in a covid secure fashion or outdoors (ideally both), we have come so far, we don't want to waste it now with another 3rd wave and we should be doing as much as possible to avoid that.

I agree that 21st June always seemed a little on the optimistic side, however I just don’t see how we’re expecting to see another wave akin to the January peak in terms of deaths when by such point approximately 90% of adults will have been vaccinated (compared to <3% back in Jan).

If vaccines stem transmission considerably, and they appear to, then how can cases be forecast to run amok through our society? And even if they did (which I find impossible to believe), how is such a large promotion of people expected to die when vaccines have such a high success rate with respect to combatting serious illness?

I can’t fathom it. If those models are remotely accurate, then we’re in this for all perpetuity are we not? And if that’s the case, why is no one saying as much?

 

[crodonilson]

I agree that 21st June always seemed a little on the optimistic side, however I just don’t see how we’re expecting to see another wave akin to the January peak in terms of deaths when by such point approximately 90% of adults will have been vaccinated (compared to <3% back in Jan).

If vaccines stem transmission considerably, and they appear to, then how can cases be forecast to run amok through our society? And even if they did (which I find impossible to believe), how is such a large promotion of people expected to die when vaccines have such a high success rate with respect to combatting serious illness?

I can’t fathom it. If those models are remotely accurate, then we’re in this for all perpetuity are we not? And if that’s the case, why is no one saying as much?

I think the models that have the nightmare scenario of a third wave as large as the Janury ones show some pessimistic but realistic assumptions that the efficacy of the vaccines might not be as great when you completely release social distancing and other mitigation measures, all of the trials and real world data so far have been done with either lockdowns happening or other mitigations in place. Also worth bearing in mind that while takeup is high there are still a significant amount of people who have not been vaccinated in the most vulnerable groups, there were approx 15m people in priority groups 1-5 so even with approx 90% takeup in these groups it still leaves 1.5m extremely vulnerable people, if only 5% of these people were to die that's still another 75,000 deaths. I think there is also a relaistic expectation that takeup as we go down the age groups will be much lower and these are the people who will be mixing the most and creating chains of transmission.