Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Blue Valkyrie]

These models from the usual suspects promoting more Covid fear porn appear to have ignored the real world data we're getting from vaccine trials. They assume, it seems that the vaccines will not be as effective as the real world data shows that they are! Why?

For example, a recent US trial showed the Astrazenica as 76% effective against symptomatic infection and (crucially IMO) 100% effective at preventing serious cases requiring hospitalisation. Given all our lives were put on pause to 'Protect the NHS', I'd say a vaccine that stops 100% of people who catch Covid from going to hospital has done its job exceptionally well.

The fact is, vaccines were promoted as our release from this. The real world data shows they are effective. There hasn't been a spike of infections after children returned to school. So we need to be getting our lives back.

Covid is unlikely to be eradicated so yes, we shall need to tweak the vaccines. A regular programme of vaccination will be required. But the key is, they work and I don't think it's helpful for this constant dribble of dire warnings about Covid that are not borne out by the actual data.

I suspect too much weight is being given to what has happened in Chile.

They have vaccinated a high amount of the population but are now having a large wave of infections after lockdown was lifted.


It must be noted however that 93% of the Chile vaccinations were the Chinese Sinovax vaccine with the other 7% being Pfizer.


So I suppose the fear is that the AZ vaccine we have used for a fair chunk of our vaccinations is more like Sinovax than Pfizer in the real world. We wait and see for now.


More here :

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-on-covid-jabs-so-why-is-one-back-in-lockdown

 

[Napper]

Keep hearing about Chile but had a look at their data. Cases high but hospitilisations and deaths are nothing drastic . Seems to be a scare tactic that's being used

 

[highflyer]

Keep hearing about Chile but had a look at their data. Cases high but hospitilisations and deaths are nothing drastic . Seems to be a scare tactic that's being used

Too early to tell really I think?. Cases have only really gone high in the last 2-3 weeks, so you wouldn't expect to see that translate into hospitalization, let alone deaths, as yet. The lag is obviously due in part to the time taken after infection/positive testing for a case to get serious, and probably longer again than that, as it is likely to be younger people initially driving infections, leading on to older people being exposed within households etc.

Not saying deaths etc will rise at the same rate of infections in time. I would hope (and expect) not, given their vaccination programme. But I don't think we can draw any conclusions yet one way or another.

 

[e77]

Loving how the same suspects who decided they knew better than the experts for the last 12 months and were constantly proven wrong by subsequent events are still defaulting to underplaying the whole pandemic thing.

I salute your indefatigability.

 

[dazzer6666]

Britain will pass the threshold for herd immunity on Monday, according to dynamic modelling by University College London (UCL), placing more pressure on the Government to move faster in releasing restrictions.

According to the UCL results, published this week, the number of people who have protection against the virus either through vaccination or previous infection will hit 73.4 per cent on April 12 – enough to tip the country into herd immunity.

The number is in stark contrast to the modelling released by Imperial College this week, which suggested there was just 34 per cent protection by the end of March.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...ll-pass-covid-herd-immunity-threshold-monday/

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Anyone know why the Johns Hopkins website has gone down?

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/

 

[A1X]

People really need to stop with this whole "open up sooner" nonsense. Do it safely, not quickly. If you have to wait until June then wait until sodding June.

 

[dsr-burnley]

People really need to stop with this whole "open up sooner" nonsense. Do it safely, not quickly. If you have to wait until June then wait until sodding June.

It can't be done safely, that's the problem. I don't think anyone doubts that hiding away in our homes for the rest of our lives is the "safe" way forward. The question isn't when we can open up safely, it's when the trade-off between the damage and misery caused by lockdown exceeds the damage and misery caused by coronavirus, and that's a much more nuanced discussion.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

People really need to stop with this whole "open up sooner" nonsense. Do it safely, not quickly. If you have to wait until June then wait until sodding June.

And those that don’t want to open up fully in June, just stay indoors.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

I don't think there is anything wrong with our opening up roadmap going forward from here.

2 big things the Government need to really get right ( continued vaccination goes without saying ) :

(1) Sort out the track and trace.

(2) Don't bungle the international travel issue. Get the traffic lights and quarantine spot on.

 

[dazzer6666]

I don't think there is anything wrong with our opening up roadmap going forward from here.

2 big things the Government need to really get right ( continued vaccination goes without saying ) :

(1) Sort out the track and trace.

(2) Don't bungle the international travel issue. Get the traffic lights and quarantine spot on.

This. The roadmap has looked sensibly cautious from the outset to me, with the gaps between stages enough to see how things are working out - given we've had over a year of this **** a few more weeks of gradually relaxing restrictions shouldn't be beyond most people. The terminally paranoid can continue with their own private lockdown if they're that worried - no-one is going to be forced to go to the football/pub/cinema/shopping centre. It's looking increasingly likely to me that our vacc programme is going to get us out of this

 

[Terry Butcher Tribute Act]

Britain will pass the threshold for herd immunity on Monday, according to dynamic modelling by University College London (UCL), placing more pressure on the Government to move faster in releasing restrictions.

According to the UCL results, published this week, the number of people who have protection against the virus either through vaccination or previous infection will hit 73.4 per cent on April 12 – enough to tip the country into herd immunity.

The number is in stark contrast to the modelling released by Imperial College this week, which suggested there was just 34 per cent protection by the end of March.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...ll-pass-covid-herd-immunity-threshold-monday/

Have been following this on twitter. [MENTION=18093]Bristol[/MENTION]iver is worth a look - very balanced.

Points out that just over a week ago the same UCL guy was in the Telegraph warning that the R would soon rise to 1.5.

Seems some flawed logic here?

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[Yoda]

Britain will pass the threshold for herd immunity on Monday, according to dynamic modelling by University College London (UCL), placing more pressure on the Government to move faster in releasing restrictions.

According to the UCL results, published this week, the number of people who have protection against the virus either through vaccination or previous infection will hit 73.4 per cent on April 12 – enough to tip the country into herd immunity.

The number is in stark contrast to the modelling released by Imperial College this week, which suggested there was just 34 per cent protection by the end of March.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...ll-pass-covid-herd-immunity-threshold-monday/

Glad to see my maths workings match up with some scientific data:
https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/show...ssion-Thread&p=9810853&viewfull=1#post9810853

 

[e77]

Anyone know why the Johns Hopkins website has gone down?

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/

Virus?

 

[e77]

Britain will pass the threshold for herd immunity on Monday, according to dynamic modelling by University College London (UCL), placing more pressure on the Government to move faster in releasing restrictions.

According to the UCL results, published this week, the number of people who have protection against the virus either through vaccination or previous infection will hit 73.4 per cent on April 12 – enough to tip the country into herd immunity.

The number is in stark contrast to the modelling released by Imperial College this week, which suggested there was just 34 per cent protection by the end of March.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...ll-pass-covid-herd-immunity-threshold-monday/

There would be an uptick in immunity in those 12 days with more vaccinations taking effect but don't think that would explain a nearly 40% difference.

 

[blue-shifted]

And those that don’t want to open up fully in June, just stay indoors.

I think this is totally the right point.

Just because you can so something, doesn't mean you have to. I don't see myself going indoors in a pub or on public transport until totally vaccinated. Plenty I will be able to do. Personally I've given up worrying about what the law is and i'm taking my own decisions on the basis of what I think the risk is.

 

[e77]

I think this is totally the right point.

Just because you can so something, doesn't mean you have to. I don't see myself going indoors in a pub or on public transport until totally vaccinated. Plenty I will be able to do. Personally I've given up worrying about what the law is and i'm taking my own decisions on the basis of what I think the risk is.

Good luck with that.

 

[The Wizard]

Packed sports stadiums, no mask mandates, near zero restrictions: astounding.

 

[crodonilson]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/08/uk-covid-cases-could-rise-again-despite-vaccine-progress-who-official

The WHO seem keen that lockdown or severe restrictions remain in the UK and the success we've had is due to lockdown and not vaccination. Im not sure I totally agree I think the vaccination is having some success now but these people know the virus better than anyone and we should heed their earnings.

 

[Terry Butcher Tribute Act]

Packed sports stadiums, no mask mandates, near zero restrictions: astounding.

View attachment 135697

Yep. They said similar when India had 80000 in at the Test Match. Now look at them.



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