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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread



Kinky Gerbil

Im The Scatman
NSC Patron
Jul 16, 2003
58,792
hassocks
Wow - I read Kinky Gerbils post and was about to post exactly what you put, but probably not so eloquently.

Thank you for having understanding as to the impossible position some of us are in...


Who has said you are not in a difficult situation?

Why is your situation anymore difficult as those facing other illnesses/mental health/domestic abuse issues.

You are being as selfish for your own needs as those you claim are being selfish.
 




Kinky Gerbil

Im The Scatman
NSC Patron
Jul 16, 2003
58,792
hassocks
So, at risk...

- Old people (what age do you cut-off?)
- Fat people (what BMI or measure do we draw the line?)
- Those with many existing/prior conditions
- BAME

So, many millions of people.

Who tends to their needs - food, healthcare etc? Who does their work for them - many will be teachers, healthcare workers and perform other key roles?

How long do we lock these poor souls up for?

What about all the young healthy sorts that you permit to go about normal life who live under the same roof as someone who is at risk?

All the young people happily going about their business will continue to spread the virus between themselves. With odds on their side, many will be fortunate enough to enjoy a reasonable outcome. Many won't. When you multiply up the small risk across those millions of people, many will get sick, some will require hospital treatment and some will die. Some will be at risk, but didn't know until Covid-19 came knocking.

I'll be honest, I'm struggling with your plan.

You are right, it is many millions - but it’s easier to shield many millions properly and finically than the whole nation again

Foodcare/health care issues are all pretty easy work arounds with home shopping/care workers and health workers that are meant to be tested regularly anyway

How are those living in at risk households coping at the moment with schools back?

The young spreading it among themselves is currently being shown as not being an issue - being locked up again is going to be more damaging to them.

None of what you have mentioned doesn’t have a fix with proper planning, which this Government has failed at sorting - track and trace/testing etc

It is also easier to ramp up with a number of people already out and about.

The whole nation lockdown isn’t the answer and the fact we are this stage again is on Johnson
 
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Mo Gosfield

Well-known member
Aug 11, 2010
6,362
We are pretty much on our own from here on in Bozza. It is an incredibly difficult situation which requires strong leadership, we have Johnson.

He has a whole team around him. He takes guidance from the top scientific and medical people in the country. The same guidance that Starmer would get if he was in charge. Johnson very nearly died from Covid and has taken months to recover. To me, he is still struggling physically.
Of course we can all see things in hindsight that might have been done better. An earlier locking down. Too much freedom for airline passengers from Covid hot-spots. Lack of checking at ports and airports. The decision to move the elderly and infirm back into the care community ( note NHS involvement here ) Whatever people think should have been done differently or better, this is an incredibly difficult virus to combat. Its clearly coming in waves and no one is quite sure when those waves will be. We could have 3 or 4 different ones before Christmas.
The government has been lax in certain areas. Allowing politically sensitive marches and demonstrations, involving thousands of people, in close proximity to each other. Easing lockdown too quickly. It was opened up too freely and people thought the worst was over. It should have been a gradual return. I understand the pressures of re-invigorating the economy but the wrong balance was struck. There are too many people out there who don't give a damn about health and safety and this played straight into their hands. The government issues instructions about face coverings and yet there are thousands walking about uncovered, going in and out of shops, without a care in the world.
Some other leading European countries are faring no better ( some worse ) I suppose their leadership is useless as well. I guess there are plenty of people in France and Spain scoring political points against Macron and Sanchez but one thing is for sure, it doesn't help beat Coronavirus.,
 


darkwolf666

Well-known member
Nov 8, 2015
7,657
Sittingbourne, Kent
Who has said you are not in a difficult situation?

Why is your situation anymore difficult as those facing other illnesses/mental health/domestic abuse issues.

You are being as selfish for your own needs as those you claim are being selfish.

Wow, that’s really something, I’m selfish because I don’t want my wife to die...

I agreed with Bozza’s post as it echoed my feeling that there isn’t a one size fits all approach or solution, and ill thought out suggestions to “protect the vulnerable” so the rest of society can move on was very eloquently explained by him.

Everyone’s situation is different, and you know little or nothing of the daily struggles we have faced for the last year.
 


Guinness Boy

Tofu eating wokerati
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Jul 23, 2003
37,358
Up and Coming Sunny Portslade
I understand where those saying they wouldn’t accept another lockdown are coming from, but what does that actually look like in reality?

If it’s the same as before, and all places of leisure are essentially shut along with potentially your work place, what exactly are you going to do?

Very good point and unsurprising no one has answered you. I think the answer may be "walk around London with a placard and no mask".

A second lockdown can, in any case, take many forms. Boris will be desperate to keep schools open if he can and, as a parent of two school age kids who I worry about falling behind, I support him in that. Israel is on a second lockdown at the moment but it's only for two weeks and runs over the Jewish New Year holiday period. Essentially it's to stop people mixing in big groups to celebrate like they normally would. I can see the government hoping they can stretch out ours until October Half Term in order to keep schools open. At that point you'd shut bars for Halloween and put a stop to Trick or Treat with millions of nose picking kids across the country sticking their hands into communal bowls of sweets.
 




Chicken Run

Member Since Jul 2003
NSC Patron
Jul 17, 2003
19,816
Valley of Hangleton
Personally, after furlough ends I’d shut pubs (Not Restaurants) until January, any licensed premises should then get government support including furlough for the staff.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
 




Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
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Jul 11, 2003
62,734
The Fatherland
He has a whole team around him. He takes guidance from the top scientific and medical people in the country. The same guidance that Starmer would get if he was in charge.

Nonsense. The PM has a choice of who he takes his advice from. So no, Starmer wouldn’t necessarily get the same guidance.
 




Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
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Jul 11, 2003
62,734
The Fatherland
Johnson very nearly died from Covid and has taken months to recover. To me, he is still struggling physically.

I’d say he’s struggling because the job is a lot more physically and mentally taxing than he thought the jolly jap of being PM would be. It’s not the most sensible career choice for someone with a woeful attention span and distain for detail.
 


Guinness Boy

Tofu eating wokerati
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Jul 23, 2003
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Nonsense. The PM has a choice of who he takes his advice from. So no, Starmer wouldn’t necessarily get the same guidance.

This. Boris takes his orders directly from Cummings. Barnard Castle made that abundantly clear. Any other unelected mandarin would have swung.
 


vegster

Sanity Clause
May 5, 2008
28,273
I’d say he’s struggling because the job is a lot more physically and mentally taxing than he thought the jolly jap of being PM would be. It’s not the most sensible career choice for someone with a woeful attention span and distain for detail.
All this was predicted well before he got the Tory leadership. The scandals and stories of his laziness, lack of attention and all round stupidity have been out in the open for years. He only got over the line as he was seen as the man who would get Brexit done, that was his USP and the movers and shakers that run the Tory Party after the purge of centre or liberal MP's such as Clarke, Grieve and Hammond, got their man.

So, he managed to bluff a Withdrawal Bill through, now that's in tatters because he didn't read or understand the small print. So, he claims imaginary threats from Europe in order to stir the Brexit pot again and get all the Tories back on board, united against the made up threat of an EU blockade and distracting from the cock up/ lie he is responsible for.
Strangely no response to the genuine threats from the US from Trump's administration, Congress and Joe Biden that the UK will not get a trade deal if the GFA is breached.

Talk today that Johnson is staying in Downing Street this weekend to try to come up with a strategy to slow the sharp rise in Covid 19 cases so maybe, just maybe, he has realised he has to actually do some work.

I'm not optimistic though.
 




Kinky Gerbil

Im The Scatman
NSC Patron
Jul 16, 2003
58,792
hassocks
I’d say he’s struggling because the job is a lot more physically and mentally taxing than he thought the jolly jap of being PM would be. It’s not the most sensible career choice for someone with a woeful attention span and distain for detail.

78FAD493-D305-426F-9471-E12237F08448.jpeg

It looks like it’s a chore being there
 


Motogull

Todd Warrior
Sep 16, 2005
10,491
I think we've all seen how PMs age. It is plainly a demanding job.

I agree that Johnson thought he could cruise it.

He did not nearly die from COVID as he was not ventilated, so he did not reach the 50/50 survival point. I accept he was very ill though. I hoped he might learn from that but no, don't be silly.

He has surrounded himself with plonkers that won't challenge him. That's another fine mess...
 


darkwolf666

Well-known member
Nov 8, 2015
7,657
Sittingbourne, Kent
I obviously can’t do anything about places being closed, but what I mean by it is that I would make no effort whatsoever to limit my interactions with other people either socially, within my family or professionally.

I invite you to come back to this post in a couple of months time and observe how crass that comment was - not for you, but for those you clearly have no regard for!
 


darkwolf666

Well-known member
Nov 8, 2015
7,657
Sittingbourne, Kent
Not at all. I’m comfortable that I’m not putting anyone at risk who isn’t happy to take the same risks as me. We can’t force tens of millions of people out of jobs, homes, relationships etc again, nor make them more susceptible to much more serious illnesses, just to extend the lives of a tiny number of people in comparison. It’s not fair on the 99%+ of people for whom Covid is not a big threat. And it’s especially not fair on young people who are having their education and career prospects savaged by this shortly before they’ll have to pay for it.

Understand your point of view, but what about those outside your circle of willing friends who you and they come into contact with...
 


vegster

Sanity Clause
May 5, 2008
28,273




Kinky Gerbil

Im The Scatman
NSC Patron
Jul 16, 2003
58,792
hassocks
Via the Telegraph

I knew a second lockdown was on the cards before we’d had the first one. In mid-March my team at the University of Edinburgh modelled a lockdown that ended in June and was followed by a slow, initially imperceptible rise in cases over the summer, culminating in a second lockdown in late September.
We knew that scenario was likely because we knew that a lockdown is a short-term fix, not a long term solution. However cautiously we relaxed restrictions the time would come when the epidemic started to take off again. In the UK, that time is now.
This is not mid-March though. Back then cases and deaths were doubling every 3-4 days. In mid-September, cases are doubling every 7-14 days and deaths even more slowly. This too was expected; the way we are living now does not permit the virus to spread as easily as before, so this should be more of a second bump than a second wave.
Some kind of response is called for, but it must be proportionate. One suggestion is a ‘circuit breaker’, the social distancing version of a short, sharp shock to drive down incidence over a two-week period. The virus would bounce back in time but we’d have bought a few weeks.
It is profoundly disappointing that six months into this pandemic, having rejected every alternative proposed, we keep coming back to lockdown, a strategy that is visibly failing around the world. If we must go this route, let us at least avoid earlier mistakes. The March lockdown was too harsh, failed dismally to protect those who most needed protecting, and had no exit strategy. A circuit breaker must be targeted to minimise disruption, especially to health care provision and education, but also to business and services; it must focus on protecting the elderly and frail; and it must be time-limited, come what may.
We should set some ground rules too. First, we deploy only evidence-based interventions, unlike the rule-of-six in England which unnecessarily applies to children, who play a minor role in transmission, and outdoor activities, which are very low risk. Second, we have a clear plan for using the time we have bought; for instance, to build testing capacity. Third, we agree on a long term strategy that does not involve a crippling on-off cycle of circuit breakers until whenever we might get a vaccine. We must not allow the cure to become worse than the disease.
That long term strategy has to be a risk-based approach to living with Covid-19. This is a very unpleasant virus but, for the great majority of people, not nearly so unpleasant that we should contemplate shutting down society to deal with it. We can help individuals assess the risk to themselves and the people around them, enable everyone to mitigate those risks while ensuring that the most vulnerable are protected, and thereby minimise the need for government-led interventions. Would that work? It seems to be working in Sweden.
Prof Mark Woolhouse is Chair of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh. He is a member of the UK SPI-M advisory group and of Scotland's Covid-19 Advisory Group. He is writing in a personal capacity.
 


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