Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Bozza]

Shield the at risk and yet younger people go back to normal-ish

Fix track and trace

Test only those with symptoms to free up tests

For a start.

So, at risk...

- Old people (what age do you cut-off?)
- Fat people (what BMI or measure do we draw the line?)
- Those with many existing/prior conditions
- BAME

So, many millions of people.

Who tends to their needs - food, healthcare etc? Who does their work for them - many will be teachers, healthcare workers and perform other key roles?

How long do we lock these poor souls up for?

What about all the young healthy sorts that you permit to go about normal life who live under the same roof as someone who is at risk?

All the young people happily going about their business will continue to spread the virus between themselves. With odds on their side, many will be fortunate enough to enjoy a reasonable outcome. Many won't. When you multiply up the small risk across those millions of people, many will get sick, some will require hospital treatment and some will die. Some will be at risk, but didn't know until Covid-19 came knocking.

I'll be honest, I'm struggling with your plan.

 

[The Wizard]

I will not be locked down again, I’m sorry but I won’t, I’ve lost a close family member as a result of COVID restrictions in March stopping her cancer treatment and I won’t do it again, this has cost millions their jobs, mental health and livelihoods and in the long run will kill more people indirectly than directly ‘with’ COVID.

I’m not going to pretend I know the answers but Lockdowns are not the answer and clearly, this second wave of infections is total proof they do not work, so what we have another lockdown, economy totally gone, then in 3 months time we ease restrictions again and repeat the process, if there is no vaccine then lockdowns are the worst possible policy. A vaccine is by no means a certainty.

 

[Bozza]

this second wave of infections is total proof they do not work

Whilst I'm not advocating a second lockdown, although I see a further ratcheting up of restrictions all but inevitable now, I would argue that a lockdown absolutely does work, if your aim is to slow/reduce the rate of viral spread, and this second wave of infections reinforces that view.

When a virus spreads when people spend time close together, ideally indoors and with poor ventilation, keeping people separated is the most effective way of dealing with the situation.

Now, I suspect you mean they don't work because we are heading back to where we were in late March, and yes we are. However since then:

- We have learned a significant amount more about the virus (although there is still much to learn)
- We now have therapeutics that help those who require hospital treatment, which will mean more who get seriously ill will survive, when previously they would have succumbed.
- We are six months closer to a vaccine (or vaccines) being available which is the most likely exit strategy from this.

Kicking the can down the road is often a term used for putting off the inevitable. In this case kicking that can is an effective strategy in terms of dealing with the virus because of the points above.

There are other consequences of this though, not least economic both at the personal financial level and for the economy as a whole. There are also health implications as treatments get delayed, as well as the mental health impact on those struggling with the dramatic changes we have, and are, living through.

Trying to find a delicate balance that involves the least harm across all these areas is incredibly difficult. The simple fact is that there will be suffering regardless of what options are taken. I'm glad it's not my job.

 

[beorhthelm]

I'll be honest, I'm struggling with your plan.

think the plan was an alternative to a full lockdown. in that scenario everything you listed applies to the at risk group anyway.

 

[darkwolf666]

So, at risk...

- Old people (what age do you cut-off?)
- Fat people (what BMI or measure do we draw the line?)
- Those with many existing/prior conditions
- BAME

So, many millions of people.

Who tends to their needs - food, healthcare etc? Who does their work for them - many will be teachers, healthcare workers and perform other key roles?

How long do we lock these poor souls up for?

What about all the young healthy sorts that you permit to go about normal life who live under the same roof as someone who is at risk?

All the young people happily going about their business will continue to spread the virus between themselves. With odds on their side, many will be fortunate enough to enjoy a reasonable outcome. Many won't. When you multiply up the small risk across those millions of people, many will get sick, some will require hospital treatment and some will die. Some will be at risk, but didn't know until Covid-19 came knocking.

I'll be honest, I'm struggling with your plan.

Wow - I read Kinky Gerbils post and was about to post exactly what you put, but probably not so eloquently.

Thank you for having understanding as to the impossible position some of us are in...

 

[darkwolf666]

I will not be locked down again, I’m sorry but I won’t, I’ve lost a close family member as a result of COVID restrictions in March stopping her cancer treatment and I won’t do it again, this has cost millions their jobs, mental health and livelihoods and in the long run will kill more people indirectly than directly ‘with’ COVID.

I’m not going to pretend I know the answers but Lockdowns are not the answer and clearly, this second wave of infections is total proof they do not work, so what we have another lockdown, economy totally gone, then in 3 months time we ease restrictions again and repeat the process, if there is no vaccine then lockdowns are the worst possible policy. A vaccine is by no means a certainty.

Firstly, please accept my condolences and please don’t take anything I say personally

So, what do you suggest, let the vulnerable die? Survival of the fittest at its best.

I wonder what the prognosis would have been for your family member if lockdown hadn’t happened, as a cancer patient they would most likely have had a suppressed immune system, so would have been extremely vulnerable to Covid..

I am afraid it’s a case of damned if you don’t, damned if you do!

My wife was lucky (!) her cancer was at a stage where they couldn’t stop her treatment - lucky to have an incurable disease, ironic isn’t it.

 

[The Wizard]

[MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION]

I agree with what you’re saying I’m not saying a lockdown doesn’t slow the spread, obviously everyone not going to work and staying at home is going to stop the spread of a virus, but what does a lockdown actually achieve? It’s a delaying tactic that pins any hope of ever getting out of an endless cycle of lockdowns on a phantom vaccine, that may or may not work or may never even come, it comes to a point where you have to look at other avenues.

As I said in my post I don’t know exactly how it can be done, isolating the most vulnerable groups and supporting them is an option but I’ve said this in another thread, I know a few elderly people and my mum has a lung condition which classes her as vulnerable, they have all told me they won’t do what they did in March again, it’s too taxing mentally, of course opinions will differ but from the general consensus of people I speak to, people were sold a 3 week plan that has ended up being a 6 month ordeal that has not to exaggerate, totally ruined people’s mental well-being and in some cases, cost people their lives.

I’m with TCB, I will not accept another draconian lockdown, I would be respectful of people’s personal choices, but for me it’s an absolute no go.

 

[Bozza]

Further restrictions in London coming it seems > https://www.instagram.com/p/CFSiVcoH5X-/?igshid=dgqi0da314xb

Dublin moving up a level of restrictions, no indoor dining etc > https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-dublin-placed-under-risk-level-three-restrictions-12074775

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

I understand where those saying they wouldn’t accept another lockdown are coming from, but what does that actually look like in reality?

If it’s the same as before, and all places of leisure are essentially shut along with potentially your work place, what exactly are you going to do?

 

[darkwolf666]

Have to laugh at the hypocrisy of Boris blaming the British people for “finding it difficult to maintain their discipline for a long time”.

It was only 18 days ago you were so keen to get us out into pubs and restaurants that you were footing the bill!

This was always going to be the case when they introduced the "stay alert" slogan - this was the perfect excuse, if things went wrong, to blame the public as they didn't do what they were told...

 

[Weststander]

Have to laugh at the hypocrisy of Boris blaming the British people for “finding it difficult to maintain their discipline for a long time”.

It was only 18 days ago you were so keen to get us out into pubs and restaurants that you were footing the bill!

The scheme was brought in to save livelihoods. The vast majority of landlords and restauranteurs ran it with safe social distancing.

So successful, than just 11 days ago the Labour Party called for it to be extended.



Is there evidence that the widely applauded scheme, caused Europe’s second wave?

Or has the second wave stemmed from rules/laws being disregarded across the continent?

 

[Weststander]

I wasn’t really commenting on that scheme in particular, more the fact that Boris is essentially laying the blame on the public today despite recently urging us to get out and mix.

I could just have easily have said encouraged us to get back to the office, send kids to school or fly abroad.

I thought the messages (across the nations of Europe, including Scotland, NI and Wales who have full autonomy on this .... Boris doesn’t decide for them), was to safely mix according to the rules/laws. Inevitably and probably by design, for a relatively controlled and slower spread of CV19 amongst mainly lower risk age groups.

But, not just in England, not insignificant numbers of people have dismissed all this and done as they pleased. Thousands at raves, people in general who give a two fingers to laws, purported ‘civil libertarians’, conspiracy theorists and those with Superman complex. Not just the youth, bizarrely some elderly/middle aged people throughout have been determined to do as they please. This isn’t a uniquely British thing, in Spain it restarted in and around nightclubs in Catalonia, for example,

 

[beorhthelm]

I thought the messages (across the nations of Europe, including Scotland, NI and Wales who have full autonomy on this .... Boris doesn’t decide for them), was to safely mix according to the rules/laws. Inevitably and probably by design, for a relatively controlled and slower spread of CV19 amongst mainly lower risk age groups.

its fairly obvious that Boris hasnt been doing much to help, no leadership on show, but the increase incidences been seen across UK nations and Europe. he's a passenger.

 

[vegster]

its fairly obvious that Boris hasnt been doing much to help, no leadership on show, but the increase incidences been seen across UK nations and Europe. he's a passenger.

As pointed out by the First Minister of Wales, there is a vacuum at the heart of UK government. We have a huge health crisis at hand and a Prime Minister with the smallest of intellect's combined with a crap work ethic running the country. He has absolved himself of all leadership and just pops up every now and then to promise some undeliverable new scheme that will be up and running in the near future that will solve all our problems but of course, one that never comes to fruition. When we needed a Churchill, we got a Molehill.

 

[vegster]

I'm no fan - but what do you suggest from here - just let the virus do its own thing?

We are pretty much on our own from here on in Bozza. It is an incredibly difficult situation which requires strong leadership, we have Johnson.