Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Guinness Boy]

The number of false positives is dependant on the specificity of the PCR test, which can be as high as 100%.

I think 99.8% is readily achievable which would only give 200 false positives for every 100,000 people tested who don't have the virus.

Not to mention you should only get a test if you have symptoms and then you should be isolating anyway. The test result is merely going to determine the length of isolation.

That's 200 people who may have had a false positive test but, if they did they right thing, would not have passed on their cold or flu or temperature and headache bug, thus meaning fewer other people get symptoms that require a test.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

It's her that's been pointed to on NSC and her that's putting that on her Twitter and promoting her radio show on the back of it. Has everyone else made the same statistical maths error that [MENTION=599]beorhthelm[/MENTION] sorted out?

Sky/BBC and others have all run stories this week on false positives being a issue and mentioned the same sort of figures.

 

[LamieRobertson]

It's Julia. Hugely irresponsible is what she does. Another hate filled shock jock who doesn't care what happens to vulnerable people so long as she gets paid.

...and then we have Hancock ...not much to choose between them...she’s not the only one to cast doubt on the process

 

[Guinness Boy]

Sky/BBC and others have all run stories this week on false positives being a issue and mentioned the same sort of figures.

And yet we're told that they're constantly "stoking up fear"?

 

[Guinness Boy]

...and then we have Hancock ...not much to choose between them...she’s not the only one to cast doubt on the process

Two wrongs don't make a right Lamie!

Hancock's as much use as tits on a bull and Julia can't do maths.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Two wrongs don't make a right Lamie!

Hancock's as much use as tits on a bull and Julia can't do maths.

Well I’m not sure I said that ..but he was involved right

You might find this interesting

https://twitter.com/d_spiegel/status/1306943201320873988?s=21

 

[beorhthelm]

Well I’m not sure I said that ..but he was involved right

You might find this interesting

https://twitter.com/d_spiegel/status/1306943201320873988?s=21

which is an argument to not test people at random. if Julia or others are going to challenge the "moonshot" policy as a grand waste of money that wont achieve anything meaningful, it would be on good ground. if they want to snipe at the minister and take glory for showing he's wrong about some stats he's given, they are just wasting everyone's time.

and to what end? are we suppose to simply stop testing, remove all restrictions and assume its blown over? then cry to the minister when the hospitals and mortuaries are full.

 

[pb21]

The other thing to note on the number of cases and the recent increase is that not only are the number of cases increasing but also the number of positive tests relative to the number of test undertaken, i.e. false positives don't explain the increase.

A few weeks ago this was 1 to 2%, its now 2 to 4% and going up.

https://assets.publishing.service.g...COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_38_FINAL.pdf

 

[LamieRobertson]

The other thing to note on the number of cases and the recent increase is that not only are the number of cases increasing but also the number of positive tests relative to the number of test undertaken, i.e. false positives don't explain the increase.

A few weeks ago this was 1 to 2%, its now 2 to 4% and going up.

https://assets.publishing.service.g...COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_38_FINAL.pdf

Yes ..but it’s from ‘cases’ to hospital to deaths where I’m looking ..slightly creeping up but not exponentially...I believe France and Spain are ahead of us re the ‘cases’ and yet not exponential growth in hospitalisations there...Italy seems to have dropped out of the news which is interesting

 

[LamieRobertson]

which is an argument to not test people at random. if Julia or others are going to challenge the "moonshot" policy as a grand waste of money that wont achieve anything meaningful, it would be on good ground. if they want to snipe at the minister and take glory for showing he's wrong about some stats he's given, they are just wasting everyone's time.

and to what end? are we suppose to simply stop testing, remove all restrictions and assume its blown over? then cry to the minister when the hospitals and mortuaries are full.

Not sure that relates to my post tbh ...but Hancocks up there and if you think he’s doing a great job then sure say so ..personally I don’t ..re this ‘shock jock’ ..don’t really know anything about her ..anyway I’m off now ..do carry on

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Two wrongs don't make a right Lamie!

Hancock's as much use as tits on a bull and Julia can't do maths.

But



I think we can agree on this being the worst tweet ever.

 

[Big Beach Seagull]

Can anyone who knows about this sort of thing confirm or deny this. (I’m talking about what’s being said, needless to say, not who is saying it).

[tweet]1306916494773755910[/tweet]

Julia is NEVER wrong. Her radio show is nearly as brilliant as her articles.

It's typical of the educated, snobby left wing NSC elite that they can add up properly. Us Traffic Wardens only need one bit of maths - one wheel plus two lines = TICKET

Don't take the post down my love, I'm just going for the special tissues......

 

[pb21]

Yes ..but it’s from ‘cases’ to hospital to deaths where I’m looking ..slightly creeping up but not exponentially...I believe France and Spain are ahead of us re the ‘cases’ and yet not exponential growth in hospitalisations there...Italy seems to have dropped out of the news which is interesting

Yes deaths and hospitalisations are obviously more important than cases, but that link I posted shows 'COVID-19-like, daily Emergency Department attendances'.



Clearly still low, but creeping up as you say, at a similar rate to early-March.

 

[darkwolf666]

Yes ..but it’s from ‘cases’ to hospital to deaths where I’m looking ..slightly creeping up but not exponentially...I believe France and Spain are ahead of us re the ‘cases’ and yet not exponential growth in hospitalisations there...Italy seems to have dropped out of the news which is interesting

I'm guess because Italy have taken testing seriously, tests can be done with a high percentage of accuracy with results within 30 minutes... Not hours, minutes!

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Sounds like Johnson is setting up second lockdown even more.

 

[Richy_Seagull]

https://i.redd.it/6uz99f6y9xn51.png

New hospital admissions on a big rise...

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Definitely. He knows he’s going to do it, he’s just saying all the right things to minimise the damage for him personally.

A second lockdown would be an absolute disgrace and once again do far more damage to millions of people than this virus can. It should also result in the immediate resignation of Johnson.

Surely even the biggest Boris fan has had enough of this now.

 

[Bozza]

Surely even the biggest Boris fan has had enough of this now.

I'm no fan - but what do you suggest from here - just let the virus do its own thing?

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

I'm no fan - but what do you suggest from here - just let the virus do its own thing?

Shield the at risk and yet younger people go back to normal-ish

Fix track and trace

Test only those with symptoms to free up tests

For a start.