Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Mellotron]

Got a link?

Was on guardian’s Coronavirus Daily feed from today. Will try to find separate if I can - was just a cut and paste from that.

 

[Mellotron]

Most of those didn’t die on the past 24 hours, of course.

I wouldn’t say we’re in a worst position than Italy. We have enough beds and ventilator, by all accounts.

We were warned that the peak would be grim and, according to several experts I follow on Twitter, we’re there now and will be for a few more days, then the death rates should come down from around Wednesday onwards.

Would appreciate the twitter handles of some of the ones you most trust, if possible?

 

[oldboyroy]

980 deaths is what Matt Hancock announced in daily updates 20 short of a thousand? Must of included care homes or at home

 

[Solid at the back]

It's time for the government to stop calling these measures 'guidelines' and to start calling them 'rules' and 'the law'. Hit those who break them with criminal records, and those who break them more then once a prison sentence.
These careless idiots have had enough chances, so FACK them. Throw the book at them, that's the only way these idiots will learn.
I don't care how harsh that may seem. It's nowhere near as bad as what these people are doing by flouting the 'guidelines'.

 

[The Wizard]

It's time for the government to stop calling these measures 'guidelines' and to start calling them 'rules' and 'the law'. Hit those who break them with criminal records, and those who break them more then once a prison sentence.
These careless idiots have had enough chances l, so FACK them. Get hard on them l, that's the only way these idiots will learn.
I don't care how harsh that may seem. It's nowhere near as bad as what these people are doing by flouting the 'guidelines'.

If they haven’t done it by now they won’t ever, the perfect time to bring them in would have been for this weekend, considering how many idiots are going to be out flouting the rules. Time will tell if the government are doing the right thing by not imposing harsher restrictions and harsher penalties. Where I live by Preston park I feel the guidelines are being really well adhered too, but looking at certain places, with Manchester having over 300 house parties stopped by police last week it would seem it’s not working as well there.

 

[vegster]

Just watching C4 News, Ecuador has it bad poor devils. Death rate due to Covid-19 going massively under reported and bodies are being abandoned in the street, truly awful times.

 

[yxee]

The fact he didn't say "a day"

Oh okay that's fair enough

 

[Weststander]

980 deaths is what Matt Hancock announced in daily updates 20 short of a thousand? Must of included care homes or at home

Not yet I think, still just for hospitals. Other covid19 death figures covering the last few weeks, to be released this weekend.

 

[Notters]

It's time for the government to stop calling these measures 'guidelines' and to start calling them 'rules' and 'the law'. Hit those who break them with criminal records, and those who break them more then once a prison sentence.
These careless idiots have had enough chances, so FACK them. Throw the book at them, that's the only way these idiots will learn.
I don't care how harsh that may seem. It's nowhere near as bad as what these people are doing by flouting the 'guidelines'.

Whilst I have sympathy with this view, the government's calculations on how much they need to flatten the curve will have taken into account the proportion of people they expected to ignore the rules. Though admittedly this means the rules could be made a little less strict if everyone followed them.

 

[oldboyroy]

Trouble is the idiots who flout the rules will make some others think sod it if they can I can and a knock on effect

 

[The Wizard]

With them thinking the curve is near to flattening, is the building of these nightingale hospitals quite surprising, I know they are being built in case they are needed as the NHS is currently withstanding the demand.

Perhaps they are using the lockdown to flatten the curve to a manageable point and give the NHS time to prepare for the herd immunity/Sweden idea, or letting the younger people go back to work whilst social distancing and isolating the vulnerable? Just a thought, probably wrong. I’m not saying I advocate that idea just for the record, and I guess these hospitals are being built for worst case scenario.

 

[Mr Banana]

Would appreciate the twitter handles of some of the ones you most trust, if possible?

Forgive me if I'm interrupting a separate chat but if you're into scrolling through Twitter until what's left of your day turns to dust, this is pretty compelling: https://twitter.com/i/lists/1240652229507526656

This is the best account I've seen for stats and analysis: https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/with_replies

 

[Machiavelli]

Holding the government to account is political point scoring, its democracy!! Some of you seem to think mistakes can be made that could be costing unnecessary lives and we have no right to question why decisions have been like they have. If Corbyn would have been worse the. Rightly facing the same scrutiny. What is the matter with some of you, democracy is about questioning governance and leadership. This isn’t party politics, it’s accountability.

Now decisions may have been simply with the only information and advice they had and they did their best, but they may also have been i decision, going against scientific advice, not doing things quick enough because the economy was placed ahead of the curve - I don’t know, but to have been behind the countries mentioned and learned nothing doesn’t strike me as a successful strategy. You might want to swallow whatever they chose to do, but with nurses, doctors, bus drivers and everyone else dying in their thousands, I think accountability is crucial.

It would be a bit like saying Tony Blair was only doing his best with he Iraq war and leaving it at that.

Unless I have, you have been well and truly whooshed.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Forgive me if I'm interrupting a separate chat but if you're into scrolling through Twitter until what's left of your day turns to dust, this is pretty compelling: https://twitter.com/i/lists/1240652229507526656

This is the best account I've seen for stats and analysis: https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/with_replies

Good news that they have downgraded the 1st wave UK deaths from 66,000+ ( NSC hated this prediction, and these guys were rounded on by NSC's experts ) to 37,000+.

 

[atomised]

If they haven’t done it by now they won’t ever, the perfect time to bring them in would have been for this weekend, considering how many idiots are going to be out flouting the rules. Time will tell if the government are doing the right thing by not imposing harsher restrictions and harsher penalties. Where I live by Preston park I feel the guidelines are being really well adhered too, but looking at certain places, with Manchester having over 300 house parties stopped by police last week it would seem it’s not working as well there.

We had a delightful visit from the constabulary this afternoon to shut down our house party. My 5 year old son (5 today) is still crying now. My partner and I were minding our own business giving him something approaching the birthday party he would have had. Me, my partner and our 2 sons. Because hes struggling not seeing his friends. But judging by solidatthebacks comments back there we should both be flung in jail for trying to cheer him up. It clearly failed miserably due to busy body neighbours who had contacted them claiming we had loads of people here. The officer was fairly apologetic but not helping us now

 

[Machiavelli]

it was 19000 yesturday.

now is the time for government to handle the immediate issues and improve the situation. holding to account is for later, unless anyone is proposing resignations, elections etc to bring in new politicans to follow the same scientific advice? (and change advisors?)

Again, I agree with you. We need to keep the team up the top going but, boy, they need to be held to account afterwards. This is what happens when a government has been given a free pass from the press (who like to claim they're holding the government to account) for years.

 

[Swansman]

With them thinking the curve is near to flattening, is the building of these nightingale hospitals quite surprising, I know they are being built in case they are needed as the NHS is currently withstanding the demand.

Perhaps they are using the lockdown to flatten the curve to a manageable point and give the NHS time to prepare for the herd immunity/Sweden idea, or letting the younger people go back to work whilst social distancing and isolating the vulnerable? Just a thought, probably wrong. I’m not saying I advocate that idea just for the record, and I guess these hospitals are being built for worst case scenario.

I dont know what most virologists etc say about this, but our state epidemiologist says that viruses in general dont like UV, that vitamine D is good for the immune system and that high humidity decrease transmission.

That means that not only measures but also nature will flatten the curve at this moment. The first "wave" should be done in a few weeks or a month or so.

But then we have the autumn, and possibly (likely) the beginning of a six to eight months long battle with a second wave, and thats when everyone is going to need all the extra ventilators and stuff. For now and perhaps for the rest of this wave, what you got may be enough, but the second wave is not unlikely to get far worse.

I think this is possibly why the UK and Sweden got different strategies as well. You are probably able to produce mulitple thousands of ventilators until then, while we should be happy if we could get 500 more in addition to the 570 we got. We desperately need some herd immunity (even if it will cause deaths at the moment) when the second wave comes, while you might be able to manage to strenghten the NHS enough to cope when it comes.

 

[RossyG]

Would appreciate the twitter handles of some of the ones you most trust, if possible?

Of the top of my head @ProfKarolSikora

I’ll try to remember to put the handles down when I pass on information in future posts. I meant to so it before, but forgot, grrr!

 

[Solid at the back]

We had a delightful visit from the constabulary this afternoon to shut down our house party. My 5 year old son (5 today) is still crying now. My partner and I were minding our own business giving him something approaching the birthday party he would have had. Me, my partner and our 2 sons. Because hes struggling not seeing his friends. But judging by solidatthebacks comments back there we should both be flung in jail for trying to cheer him up. It clearly failed miserably due to busy body neighbours who had contacted them claiming we had loads of people here. The officer was fairly apologetic but not helping us now

Doesn't sound like you were breaking any rules, so I'm not suggesting you end up in jail. And also I said it should be criminal records for first offence and jail for breaking it a second time. If people are dumb enough to break them, then that's all they deserve imo

 

[Seagull27]

Interesting news from France;



Pretty incontrovertible proof that the virus has been over in Europe for quite a lot longer than we first thought - although I suppose that may depend on what “outside contact” on 15th March means.

Also, 50 positive tests for COVID-19 yet no signs of worsening health. A near 100% mild to asymptomatic set (so far) - admittedly in sailors who no doubt will generally be in very good health.

I wouldn't be so sure unfortunately. Sounds more like poor reporting.

https://www.navyrecognition.com/ind...lle-aircraft-carrier-begins-foch-mission.html

"Throughout the deployment, different French vessels along with foreign ones (Spanish, Portuguese, Belgian, Dutch and German) as well as a patrol plane Maritime Atlantique 2 will integrate or have interactions with the Carrier Strike Group."

Edit: actually, the quote in your post says "the vessel left its base at Toulon in the south of France on 21 January and has reportedly not been in contact with the outside world since 15 March." - so sounds like it did have contact with the outside world before 15th March? In which case, the crew almost certainly caught the virus from someone who came on board in late Feb / early March