Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Jimmy Grimble]

UK defintely counts all deaths where Covid-19 is reported.

I consistently read that they are ONLY reporting deaths in hospitals, and not in care homes or in the community. Not one news source has suggested otherwise, unless I’ve missed something?

At a press conference from a few days ago it was said that care home covid-19 deaths were not being ‘counted’.

 

[Is it PotG?]

Matey said that hospital figures were a more 'up to date' reading, rather than the ONS figures of all deaths.

Some of the ONS may have death 'connected to CV but not caused by'. Also the time lag of death reporting procedures from nationwide sources can muddy the waters.

The quoted hospital figures are better for the model analysis, and subsequent planning.

Something like that.

 

[Weststander]

971 highest day in Italy. Due to the nature of our reporting it's overwhelmingly likely we are already past 1000 per day.

Agenda: to illustrate dangerous little Englander mentality presuming we were better than the Italians, and to eventually hold to account those who wasted the time advantage we had to respond to this pandemic.

Agenda: Hoping than more Brits lose their lives to prove a political point.

Who exactly sneered at the Italians as their countrymen died, have you got quotes? I haven't heard or seen anyone doing that, instead concern and then worry.

David Milliband was excellent on LBC yesterday afternoon. Presenter Fogarty twice tried to ensnare with a loaded question implicitly lumping the USA and UK together as handling this badly compared the other c.200 countries of the world. He wasn't having on that. Despite living in the USA he was critical of Trump. He's response twice was that China and all of Europe (including us) had handled this badly, in January and February all ignoring the warnings of scientists and some military experts.

 

[Weststander]

To be fair, I think most countries are. I believe that both France and the UK aren't including deaths outside of hospitals (care homes, home deaths etc) and I haven't actually seen any country explicitly say that they are including these in their statistics.

I suspect that true figures won't be known for a long time, if ever

The UK does from tomorrow, the ONS has collated non-hospital numbers from death certificates.

 

[WATFORD zero]

The UK does from tomorrow, the ONS has collated non-hospital numbers from death certificates.

I wonder if that means a huge jump in the figures tomorrow, if they are being included as a total ?

According to this yesterday (and it's only one newspaper report) that could be close to 1,000 additional deaths.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/covid-19-hundreds-of-uk-care-home-deaths-not-added-to-official-toll

I'm really struggling to understand what these figures and trends really mean with the low counts on Sundays and then the 'catch up' during the week.

Apart from the extremely sad and obvious meaning that I feel guilty about every time I use the term 'figures' or 'trend'

 

[Weststander]

I wonder if that means a huge jump in the figures tomorrow, if they are being included as a total ? I'm really struggling to understand what these figures and trends really mean with the low counts on Sundays and then the 'catch up' during the week.

Apart from the extremely sad and obvious meaning that I feel guilty about every time I use the term 'figures' or 'trend'

You probably know more than me, but this I think is the UK basis of covid19 mortality stats:

1. Hospital deaths - our published stats include all deaths where the deceased had covid19, whereas some other countries opt for the lower deaths due to covid19.

2. Hospital deaths - the daily stats released, cover deaths over several days leading up to that moment, as there's inherently delays in getting information on individual deaths from across trusts. Professor Carl Heneghan of Nuffied, Oxford Uni explained this really well yesterday online. His overarching point is to follow cumulative trends, not to focus on erratic numbers from daily press releases.

3. Non-hospital deaths with covid19 are based on death certificates, the first ONS numbers are out on Sunday. These are comprehensive for any non-hospital place of death, whereas similar data released by the French for example only covers care homes. For us, it's where the person signing the certificate has said death due to covid19 or suspected covid19. In the main they won't be tested, it's a professional judgement.

I don't know if the authorities will then aggregate (2) and (3). If they don't, the media will within seconds.

 

[Mellotron]

Interesting news from France;

Kim Willsher @ The Guardian.
France’s defence ministry has confirmed that 50 members of crew aboard the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle have tested positive for the coronavirus, Kim Willsher, the Guardian’s Paris correspondent, reports.

Three of the sailors have been evacuated from the nuclear powered vessel by helicopter as a “preventative measure”.

“No worsening of the health of the sailors on board has been reported,” the ministry said.

A specialist medical team was flown to the Charles de Gaulle, the pride of France’s naval fleet, on Wednesday after several “suspected” cases of coronavirus were reported. Out of 66 tests carried out, 50 were positive, the ministry said in a statement.

The origin of the infection is not known; the vessel left its base at Toulon in the south of France on 21 January and has reportedly not been in contact with the outside world since 15 March.

The Charles de Gaulle, which was in the Atlantic, is currently heading back to France.

Pretty incontrovertible proof that the virus has been over in Europe for quite a lot longer than we first thought - although I suppose that may depend on what “outside contact” on 15th March means.

Also, 50 positive tests for COVID-19 yet no signs of worsening health. A near 100% mild to asymptomatic set (so far) - admittedly in sailors who no doubt will generally be in very good health.

 

[The Wizard]

5195 new cases.

 

[beorhthelm]

At a press conference from a few days ago it was said that care home covid-19 deaths were not being ‘counted’.

stand to be corrected, but quite sure the official numbers are based on death certificates where Covid-19 is recorded.

 

[Bold Seagull]

953 deaths.

Highest daily total in Spain was 950. In Italy 912.

WTF is going on!!?? Why isn’t the government under huge scrutiny!? How when we had all the warnings have we ended up in a worse position than Italy. This is truly shocking.

 

[Bakero]

953 deaths.

Highest daily total in Spain was 950. In Italy 912.

WTF is going on!!?? Why isn’t the government under huge scrutiny!? How when we had all the warnings have we ended up in a worse position than Italy. This is truly shocking.

They're doing their best, no one could have predicted this, no time for political point scoring, Corbyn would've been worse etc

 

[CHAPPERS]

Interesting news from France;



Pretty incontrovertible proof that the virus has been over in Europe for quite a lot longer than we first thought - although I suppose that may depend on what “outside contact” on 15th March means.

Also, 50 positive tests for COVID-19 yet no signs of worsening health. A near 100% mild to asymptomatic set (so far) - admittedly in sailors who no doubt will generally be in very good health.

Got a link?

 

[RossyG]

953 deaths.

Highest daily total in Spain was 950. In Italy 912.

WTF is going on!!?? Why isn’t the government under huge scrutiny!? How when we had all the warnings have we ended up in a worse position than Italy. This is truly shocking.

Most of those didn’t die on the past 24 hours, of course.

I wouldn’t say we’re in a worst position than Italy. We have enough beds and ventilator, by all accounts.

We were warned that the peak would be grim and, according to several experts I follow on Twitter, we’re there now and will be for a few more days, then the death rates should come down from around Wednesday onwards.

 

[The Wizard]

Over 19000 tests done, fantastic that they are really getting this number up now.

 

[Bold Seagull]

They're doing their best, no one could have predicted this, no time for political point scoring, Corbyn would've been worse etc

Holding the government to account is political point scoring, its democracy!! Some of you seem to think mistakes can be made that could be costing unnecessary lives and we have no right to question why decisions have been like they have. If Corbyn would have been worse the. Rightly facing the same scrutiny. What is the matter with some of you, democracy is about questioning governance and leadership. This isn’t party politics, it’s accountability.

Now decisions may have been simply with the only information and advice they had and they did their best, but they may also have been i decision, going against scientific advice, not doing things quick enough because the economy was placed ahead of the curve - I don’t know, but to have been behind the countries mentioned and learned nothing doesn’t strike me as a successful strategy. You might want to swallow whatever they chose to do, but with nurses, doctors, bus drivers and everyone else dying in their thousands, I think accountability is crucial.

It would be a bit like saying Tony Blair was only doing his best with he Iraq war and leaving it at that.

 

[Bakero]

Over 19000 tests done, fantastic that they are really getting this number up now.

Still lagging behind the economically "developed" world.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Most of those didn’t die on the past 24 hours, of course.

I wouldn’t say we’re in a worst position than Italy. We have enough beds and ventilator, by all accounts.
W
We were warned that the peak would be grim and, according to several experts I follow on Twitter, we’re there now and will be for a few more days, then the death rates should come down from around Wednesday onwards.

Hope so, but as [MENTION=205]Tom Hark, Preston Park[/MENTION] said, cant help thinking the failure to screen flights etc and leaving the lockdown quite late given we must have known we were low on tests seems to be a question worth asking.

 

[Notters]

953 deaths.

Highest daily total in Spain was 950. In Italy 912.

WTF is going on!!?? Why isn’t the government under huge scrutiny!? How when we had all the warnings have we ended up in a worse position than Italy. This is truly shocking.

Without a virus, everyone who's going to get it will get it. Our population is circa 13% larger than italy's. What are we supposed to be scrutinising?

 

[The Wizard]

Shouldn’t this debate be taken to the political response thread?

Considering they’ve nearly doubled the test numbers in the past week that’s pretty good anyway.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Over 19000 tests done, fantastic that they are really getting this number up now.

No it's absolutely SHIT.

The government promised 10,000 a day. Under promise and over achieve is leadership 101.

This crisis has been handled appallingly here.