Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Billy the Fish]

Spot on!

I'd be amazed if the government weren't giving an exit plan serious attention but to publicise what can, at best, only be a very general overview in a very fluid and uncertain situation can only invite further daft questions and distract from the main objective to bring it under control with sufficient data to plan a credible and resilient exit strategy.


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Yes, if the politicians give an exit plan now and the situation changes in the next two weeks the same journos and the anti-government types on Twitter will be ridiculing them.

Most of the questions now are just fishing for tomorrow's big headline. Rishi Sunak did some masterful sidestepping the other day!

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

They risk being ridiculed tomorrow.........or the day after.....

Yes, in spite of suposedly being the pre-eminent body in their field, they have been very poor with their predictions. Perhaps they are getting their data from Trump?

 

[LlcoolJ]

Yeah that's hard going.


So the medic keeps arriving at addresses of Covid19 patients, keeps performing CPR, and keeps losing the patient. This isn't like the general picture we've been given from elsewhere. I had the impression that patients (the ones in worst health) had symptoms which then become bad enough for the patient to need hospitalisation, and if things deteriorate they go on a ventilator etc. But this guy's experience is that patient after patient is becoming critically ill so fast that they don't even make it out of the house. The deaths this chap is witnessing would not even appear on our daily list, because they've not had a test and not died in hospital.

Why is this so different to the stories from elsewhere?

It isn't. Based on the WSJ link that someone posted previously about Italy.

There are thousands of deaths currently unaccounted for worldwide. And not just in a made up nonsense China/Putin way.

Just because nobody knows yet.

Not a criticism either. It's more important to try to save lives than count the dead.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

We had a delightful visit from the constabulary this afternoon to shut down our house party. My 5 year old son (5 today) is still crying now. My partner and I were minding our own business giving him something approaching the birthday party he would have had. Me, my partner and our 2 sons. Because hes struggling not seeing his friends. But judging by solidatthebacks comments back there we should both be flung in jail for trying to cheer him up. It clearly failed miserably due to busy body neighbours who had contacted them claiming we had loads of people here. The officer was fairly apologetic but not helping us now

So once you showed the police it was just you, your partner and your kids, you didn't just continue the party

 

[Notters]

Surely one of the most misleading headlines going?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...ria-infected-with-coronavirus-new-study-shows

So less than 1% of Austrians have had moderate /severe symptoms. This surely does nothing to disprove that a large proportion of the population have had it?

 

[beorhthelm]

The county wants to know what an exit plan looks like, it comes across as they have no idea.

i think they have a broad idea, the data and scientific advice says the worse is behind and we can relax social distancing, go back to work, school, etc in some staggered approach. this would be in contradiction to the current advice, so we dont want a mixed message going out. we cant trust the papers not running a headline "UK goes back to work in 3 weeks time".

 

[Triggaaar]

It isn't. Based on the WSJ link that someone posted previously about Italy.

It doesn't make sense to me.

There are thousands of deaths currently unaccounted for worldwide. And not just in a made up nonsense China/Putin way.

Sure, but this guy and his team went to 12 different households after being called for a Covid case. All 12 patients died at the scene, and he wasn't suggesting that was unusual in the current situation. That's ****ed up. For those who were ill enough to need hospital treatment, 100% of cases died before leaving the house. So if there are 10,000 Covid patients in hospital in the UK, how many people died before even getting to hospital? If it were anything like this guy's experience (let's say he had a bad day and would usually get one of them to hospital still alive), you'd be talking over 100,000 dead at home (in the UK). While we know there are some deaths at home that haven't been accounted for, the government have indicated it's not a large figure (smaller than the number of deaths in hospital).

So his experience doesn't appear to be what we're seeing here.

Not a criticism either. It's more important to try to save lives than count the dead.

Saving lives is the most important thing, but it would actually save more lives to let people know if many more had died, as it would encourage them to stay at home more.

 

[LlcoolJ]

It doesn't make sense to me.
Sure, but this guy and his team went to 12 different households after being called for a Covid case. All 12 patients died at the scene, and he wasn't suggesting that was unusual in the current situation. That's ****ed up. For those who were ill enough to need hospital treatment, 100% of cases died before leaving the house. So if there are 10,000 Covid patients in hospital in the UK, how many people died before even getting to hospital? If it were anything like this guy's experience (let's say he had a bad day and would usually get one of them to hospital still alive), you'd be talking over 100,000 dead at home (in the UK). While we know there are some deaths at home that haven't been accounted for, the government have indicated it's not a large figure (smaller than the number of deaths in hospital).

So his experience doesn't appear to be what we're seeing here.

Saving lives is the most important thing, but it would actually save more lives to let people know if many more had died, as it would encourage them to stay at home more.

Yep. Can't argue with anything you've said and the article is (hopefully) an outlier case.

Was just saying that it's certainly not exclusive to the US where actual death figures aren't being correctly reported. Because it's impossible at present.

 

[RossyG]

 

[RossyG]

The Doctor Who writer Gareth Roberts on Twitter said that when he hears the media questions in the daily briefing it sounds to him like a ten-year-old saying, “Can we go to Alton Towers, mum? Can we? Next week? The week,after? Can we, though, mum, can we?”

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

It doesn't make sense to me.
Sure, but this guy and his team went to 12 different households after being called for a Covid case. All 12 patients died at the scene, and he wasn't suggesting that was unusual in the current situation. That's ****ed up. For those who were ill enough to need hospital treatment, 100% of cases died before leaving the house. So if there are 10,000 Covid patients in hospital in the UK, how many people died before even getting to hospital? If it were anything like this guy's experience (let's say he had a bad day and would usually get one of them to hospital still alive), you'd be talking over 100,000 dead at home (in the UK). While we know there are some deaths at home that haven't been accounted for, the government have indicated it's not a large figure (smaller than the number of deaths in hospital).

So his experience doesn't appear to be what we're seeing here.

Saving lives is the most important thing, but it would actually save more lives to let people know if many more had died, as it would encourage them to stay at home more.

I wonder if the USA healthcare setup prevents poorer folk from contacting emergency services until it is too late? Was he working in a poorer area of New York?

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

i think they have a broad idea, the data and scientific advice says the worse is behind and we can relax social distancing, go back to work, school, etc in some staggered approach. this would be in contradiction to the current advice, so we dont want a mixed message going out. we cant trust the papers not running a headline "UK goes back to work in 3 weeks time".

I think most reasonable people are not expecting time frames, just an idea

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Forgive me if I'm interrupting a separate chat but if you're into scrolling through Twitter until what's left of your day turns to dust, this is pretty compelling: https://twitter.com/i/lists/1240652229507526656

This is the best account I've seen for stats and analysis: https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/with_replies

We can bookmark their modeling and come back to it soon.

They model that our peak will be on April 17th with 1,674 ( range 651 to 4,143) deaths.

Of course this death total is not just hospital deaths, so we'll have to wait for the ONS figure, not the daily announcement.


Also relaxing the lockdown could then lead to a new peak if it is done too soon.

 

[vegster]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52196815

Interesting insight here on a typical day for a New York paramedic at the moment.

I would warn It's not easy reading though.

Yes, read this earlier. You have to feel for them, poor souls, he's losing people day after day and it seems hopeless. You really have to admire how the Medics keep going.

 

[atomised]

So once you showed the police it was just you, your partner and your kids, you didn't just continue the party

Tried to but for some strange reason the 5 year old in question wasnt really that keen. Hes struggling at the moment anyway in spite of our efforts to shield him he is really missing seeing his friends

 

[The Wizard]

They are building several nightingale hospitals despite the fact they believe we are near too inflections peak, something doesn’t sit right about that particularly given how they’ve mentioned at times that this lockdown is to give the NHS ‘time to prepare’ and flatten the curve. I wonder if the government are still possibly looking at the herd immunitys/Sweden route, but in order to go down this route they needed time to build the extra emergency buildings for this as had we gone this route initially the NHS would have been overwhelmed.

Is there a way of allowing general healthy young population back out to work to keep the economy going, with social distancing and isolation still in place WHILST still protecting those most at risk? I honestly don’t know.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

They are building several nightingale hospitals despite the fact they believe we are near too inflections peak, something doesn’t sit right about that particularly given how they’ve mentioned at times that this lockdown is to give the NHS ‘time to prepare’ and flatten the curve. I wonder if the government are still possibly looking at the herd immunitys/Sweden route, but in order to go down this route they needed time to build the extra emergency buildings for this as had we gone this route initially the NHS would have been overwhelmed.

Is there a way of allowing general healthy young population back out to work to keep the economy going, with social distancing and isolation still in place WHILST still protecting those most at risk? I honestly don’t know.

I have also wondered about that the past week or two. Seems incongruous.

 

[RossyG]

I’m wondering if the temporary hospitals are to be used exclusively for Covid patients so the others can go back to being normal hospitals.

This is pure speculation, of course.

 

[ManOfSussex]

They are building several nightingale hospitals despite the fact they believe we are near too inflections peak, something doesn’t sit right about that particularly given how they’ve mentioned at times that this lockdown is to give the NHS ‘time to prepare’ and flatten the curve. I wonder if the government are still possibly looking at the herd immunitys/Sweden route, but in order to go down this route they needed time to build the extra emergency buildings for this as had we gone this route initially the NHS would have been overwhelmed.

Is there a way of allowing general healthy young population back out to work to keep the economy going, with social distancing and isolation still in place WHILST still protecting those most at risk? I honestly don’t know.

I'm purely thinking of my workplace that is currently closed and I can't see how it can open with social distancing still in place. Toilets, lifts, touching the same surfaces etc, etc............we had cleaners going round constantly cleaning everything, all day, even before social distancing was introduced and it closed down. I'm in my 40's and reasonably psychically fit, but am I healthier, or less risk than a 50 year old, or healthier than a 25 year old who is overweight and smokes?

As we can officially WFH, despite it making it like having both hands tied behind peoples backs in a lot of cases, I can't see us reopening our office for quite a while.

 

[beorhthelm]

They are building several nightingale hospitals despite the fact they believe we are near too inflections peak, something doesn’t sit right about that particularly given how they’ve mentioned at times that this lockdown is to give the NHS ‘time to prepare’ and flatten the curve. I wonder if the government are still possibly looking at the herd immunitys/Sweden route, but in order to go down this route they needed time to build the extra emergency buildings for this as had we gone this route initially the NHS would have been overwhelmed.

ive been expecting this course of action from the start. the original "flaten the curve" showed this indirectly, because if you dont achieve some immunity through the population the spike just comes back later. you suppress the infection rate to the point you can manage the serious cases, if you increase the capcity you can cope with higher infection rate. the alternative is to sit tight for vaccination of the population, which best case is a year to roll out.