My concern is that it won't be just that 2 weeks. If there are guarantees that it will be that then everyone who's jabbed and boosted is fee to get on with life that's fine. If the 2 weeks becomes 2 months then 6 months and say 75 percent of adults are boosted why should that 75 percent continue to suffer beyond a 2 week circuit breaker
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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter GingerBeerMan
- Start date
My concern is that it won't be just that 2 weeks. If there are guarantees that it will be that then everyone who's jabbed and boosted is fee to get on with life that's fine. If the 2 weeks becomes 2 months then 6 months and say 75 percent of adults are boosted why should that 75 percent continue to suffer beyond a 2 week circuit breaker
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
…and again that’s part of the problem…no one would (well ok maybe one) believe that it would be two weeks
Weststander
Well-known member
To me the tipping points are:
- Hospitals certain to be over run in all modelling, or
- Too many NHS staff are off with Covid for them to function.
If either are imminent, I agree.
Before that, I prefer some caution. I didn’t think that with the previous waves, but this time around:
- The community has much immunity. Helping prevent severe illness.
- Scientists are saying wait to see if Omicron itself presents less severe illness.
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
Do you mean with adequate support?
Are you referring to a booster (basically the third jab)..if so are you then suggesting to those who’ve only had one that they aren’t to be included.
Passports that the Scottish who’ve been pretty strict have said they aren’t worth all the trouble
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
Telegraph are reporting lockdown in for Xmas and not a shock, its not 2 weeks but to the end of Jan
Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) minutes released on Saturday raised the prospect of a second cancelled Christmas, after the group called for an immediate curtailment of indoor mixing in order to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed.
In a meeting on Thursday, the scientific advisers concluded that waiting until after Christmas to impose restrictions would be too late.
The group described indoor mixing as “the biggest risk factor” in the spread of omicron, suggesting “reducing group sizes, increasing physical distancing, reducing duration of contacts and closing high risk premises”.
It is understood that senior government scientists have suggested to ministers that restrictions on indoor gatherings should last until two weeks after everyone has had the chance to take a booster. That would mean late January at the earliest.
Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) minutes released on Saturday raised the prospect of a second cancelled Christmas, after the group called for an immediate curtailment of indoor mixing in order to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed.
In a meeting on Thursday, the scientific advisers concluded that waiting until after Christmas to impose restrictions would be too late.
The group described indoor mixing as “the biggest risk factor” in the spread of omicron, suggesting “reducing group sizes, increasing physical distancing, reducing duration of contacts and closing high risk premises”.
It is understood that senior government scientists have suggested to ministers that restrictions on indoor gatherings should last until two weeks after everyone has had the chance to take a booster. That would mean late January at the earliest.
Weststander
Well-known member
Understandable with these numbers and that’s largely the Delta variant.
Not for the first time in this pandemic they’re sending critically ill Covid patients abroad.
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/dutch-covid-19-patients-transferred-germany-hospitals-struggle-2021-11-23/
Off topic somewhat - but I always thought 'abroad' meant the same as 'overseas'. But I see it means 'over the border'. Which I suppose is effectively the same thing for us really. Every day's a schoolday!
Weststander
Well-known member
I did actually ponder that
Ever aware of the nsc army of wits, or the pedants looking for a row.
Decided against “overseas” as they have a land border. Yes, I know it may be a non literal term.
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crodonilson
He/Him
SAGE now downgrading their predicting, estimating as many as 6,000 deaths per day without imminent restrictions.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/18/uk-scientists-curbs-covid-infections-omicron-deaths-restrictions-sage
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/18/uk-scientists-curbs-covid-infections-omicron-deaths-restrictions-sage
Weststander
Well-known member
On call, it’s the Covid Cavalry.6,000 per day’s an exaggeration, some Brits will be allowed to survive - gravediggers and life assurance claims staff.
crodonilson
He/Him
6,000 per day’s an exaggeration, some Brits will be allowed to survive - gravediggers and life assurance claims staff.
Not my predictions, these are the countries finest scientists, pretty much to a man they are now saying we are heading at full speed into an absolute car crash, the next week's and months look incredibly grim. Maybe we should listen to them and do the right thing they are suggesting?
Green Cross Code Man
Wunt be druv
They've lost a lot of the remaining credibility they had in an interview with Graham Medley. He admitted that they choose the worst possible scenarios in their models in order to appease the politicians as it will allow the politicians to feel they are doing something.
I am all for sensible action and sometimes even quite drastic, but the level of manipulation is disgusting. The government and sage, risk alienating supporters of their policies and supporters of vaccines with outlandish modelling.
[Tweet]1472300131110293515[/tweet]
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,025
hmm, a variation multiple of 10 - 600 to 6000, sounds legit.
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
Slight amendment…..of course we only know the names of some of this unelected organisation
Yoda
English & European
Yes it is!!!!
If sustained, they are predicting as many would die in a MONTH as have during the rest of the ENTIRE ****ING PANDEMIC.
Can't even you see how flawed that is with data suggesting this is a less sever variant?
Weststander
Well-known member
Thank you, genuinely interesting.
Fair play to Medley for be open to a dialogue with FN.
I am not sure experts modelling the worst case scenario to inform planning is quite the gotcha people are making out. It's up to the decision makers to ask questions about the data and take it from there.
I also think you might be overestimating the current government. They have on several occasions gone along asking for caution without legislation then panicking and bringing in legislation when things begin to look scary. My impression is the data behind it is fairly secondary.
I also think you might be overestimating the current government. They have on several occasions gone along asking for caution without legislation then panicking and bringing in legislation when things begin to look scary. My impression is the data behind it is fairly secondary.
BN41Albion
Well-known member
- Oct 1, 2017
- 6,829
'Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), also warned that, based on their modelling, hospitalisations could peak between 3,000 and 10,000 a day and deaths at between 600 and 6,000 a day.'
In other words, they don't have a ****ing clue. 'between 600 and 6000' deaths and '3000 and 10000' hospitalisations is a laughably wide prediction. Predicting 6000 deaths a day when the majority of the country's elderly and vulnerable have been boostered is ridiculous scaremongering