Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

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atomised

Well-known member
Mar 21, 2013
5,170
We are taking two weeks here. Without adequate support it’s manageable, then everyone who wants a jab gets one, then you introduce vaccine passports. What other option is there? Do nothing and see what happens in hospitals to the underpaid over worked health service already on their knees? Yeah alright. How many cancer patients do well from that exactly?


My concern is that it won't be just that 2 weeks. If there are guarantees that it will be that then everyone who's jabbed and boosted is fee to get on with life that's fine. If the 2 weeks becomes 2 months then 6 months and say 75 percent of adults are boosted why should that 75 percent continue to suffer beyond a 2 week circuit breaker
 






Weststander

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
69,246
Withdean area
We are taking two weeks here. Without adequate support it’s manageable, then everyone who wants a jab gets one, then you introduce vaccine passports. What other option is there? Do nothing and see what happens in hospitals to the underpaid over worked health service already on their knees? Yeah alright. How many cancer patients do well from that exactly?

To me the tipping points are:

- Hospitals certain to be over run in all modelling, or
- Too many NHS staff are off with Covid for them to function.

If either are imminent, I agree.

Before that, I prefer some caution. I didn’t think that with the previous waves, but this time around:
- The community has much immunity. Helping prevent severe illness.
- Scientists are saying wait to see if Omicron itself presents less severe illness.
 


LamieRobertson

Not awoke
Feb 3, 2008
48,411
SHOREHAM BY SEA
We are taking two weeks here. Without adequate support it’s manageable, then everyone who wants a jab gets one, then you introduce vaccine passports. What other option is there? Do nothing and see what happens in hospitals to the underpaid over worked health service already on their knees? Yeah alright. How many cancer patients do well from that exactly?

Do you mean with adequate support?
Are you referring to a booster (basically the third jab)..if so are you then suggesting to those who’ve only had one that they aren’t to be included.
Passports that the Scottish who’ve been pretty strict have said they aren’t worth all the trouble
 


LamieRobertson

Not awoke
Feb 3, 2008
48,411
SHOREHAM BY SEA
To me the tipping points are:

- Hospitals certain to be over run in all modelling, or
- Too many NHS staff are off with Covid for them to function.

If either are imminent, I agree.

Before that, I prefer some caution. I didn’t think that with the previous waves, but this time around:
- The community has much immunity. Helping prevent severe illness.
- Scientists are saying wait to see if Omicron itself presents less severe illness.


[/B

Events don’t seem to be driven by this data at all currently :shrug:
 




Kinky Gerbil

Im The Scatman
NSC Patron
Jul 16, 2003
58,790
hassocks
Telegraph are reporting lockdown in for Xmas and not a shock, its not 2 weeks but to the end of Jan

Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) minutes released on Saturday raised the prospect of a second cancelled Christmas, after the group called for an immediate curtailment of indoor mixing in order to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed.

In a meeting on Thursday, the scientific advisers concluded that waiting until after Christmas to impose restrictions would be too late.

The group described indoor mixing as “the biggest risk factor” in the spread of omicron, suggesting “reducing group sizes, increasing physical distancing, reducing duration of contacts and closing high risk premises”.

It is understood that senior government scientists have suggested to ministers that restrictions on indoor gatherings should last until two weeks after everyone has had the chance to take a booster. That would mean late January at the earliest.
 




Weststander

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
69,246
Withdean area
Netherlands in lockdown from tomorrow morning.

8B2EEE31-E9B2-4F75-8F9D-9E5CF1326415.png

Understandable with these numbers and that’s largely the Delta variant.

Not for the first time in this pandemic they’re sending critically ill Covid patients abroad.
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/dutch-covid-19-patients-transferred-germany-hospitals-struggle-2021-11-23/
 




Bodian

Well-known member
May 3, 2012
14,245
Cumbria
Understandable with these numbers and that’s largely the Delta variant.

Not for the first time in this pandemic they’re sending critically ill Covid patients abroad.
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/dutch-covid-19-patients-transferred-germany-hospitals-struggle-2021-11-23/

Off topic somewhat - but I always thought 'abroad' meant the same as 'overseas'. But I see it means 'over the border'. Which I suppose is effectively the same thing for us really. Every day's a schoolday!
 


Weststander

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
69,246
Withdean area
Off topic somewhat - but I always thought 'abroad' meant the same as 'overseas'. But I see it means 'over the border'. Which I suppose is effectively the same thing for us really. Every day's a schoolday!

I did actually ponder that :lolol:

Ever aware of the nsc army of wits, or the pedants looking for a row.

Decided against “overseas” as they have a land border. Yes, I know it may be a non literal term.
 
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Weststander

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
69,246
Withdean area


crodonilson

He/Him
Jan 17, 2005
14,062
Lyme Regis
:bowdown: On call, it’s the Covid Cavalry.

6,000 per day’s an exaggeration, some Brits will be allowed to survive - gravediggers and life assurance claims staff.

Not my predictions, these are the countries finest scientists, pretty much to a man they are now saying we are heading at full speed into an absolute car crash, the next week's and months look incredibly grim. Maybe we should listen to them and do the right thing they are suggesting?
 


Green Cross Code Man

Wunt be druv
Mar 30, 2006
20,738
Eastbourne
SAGE now downgrading their predicting, estimating as many as 6,000 deaths per day without imminent restrictions.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/18/uk-scientists-curbs-covid-infections-omicron-deaths-restrictions-sage
They've lost a lot of the remaining credibility they had in an interview with Graham Medley. He admitted that they choose the worst possible scenarios in their models in order to appease the politicians as it will allow the politicians to feel they are doing something.

I am all for sensible action and sometimes even quite drastic, but the level of manipulation is disgusting. The government and sage, risk alienating supporters of their policies and supporters of vaccines with outlandish modelling.

[Tweet]1472300131110293515[/tweet]
 




beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
36,014


LamieRobertson

Not awoke
Feb 3, 2008
48,411
SHOREHAM BY SEA
Not my predictions, these are some of the countries finest scientists, pretty much to a man they are now saying we are heading at full speed into an absolute car crash, the next week's and months look incredibly grim. Maybe we should listen to them and do the right thing they are suggesting?

Slight amendment…..of course we only know the names of some of this unelected organisation
 


Yoda

English & European
Not my predictions, these are the countries finest scientists, pretty much to a man they are now saying we are heading at full speed into an absolute car crash, the next week's and months look incredibly grim. Maybe we should listen to them and do the right thing they are suggesting?

Yes it is!!!!

If sustained, they are predicting as many would die in a MONTH as have during the rest of the ENTIRE ****ING PANDEMIC.

Can't even you see how flawed that is with data suggesting this is a less sever variant?
 


Weststander

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
69,246
Withdean area
They've lost a lot of the remaining credibility they had in an interview with Graham Medley. He admitted that they choose the worst possible scenarios in their models in order to appease the politicians as it will allow the politicians to feel they are doing something.

I am all for sensible action and sometimes even quite drastic, but the level of manipulation is disgusting. The government and sage, risk alienating supporters of their policies and supporters of vaccines with outlandish modelling.

[Tweet]1472300131110293515[/tweet]

Thank you, genuinely interesting.

Fair play to Medley for be open to a dialogue with FN.
 




e77

Well-known member
May 23, 2004
7,270
Worthing
I am not sure experts modelling the worst case scenario to inform planning is quite the gotcha people are making out. It's up to the decision makers to ask questions about the data and take it from there.

I also think you might be overestimating the current government. They have on several occasions gone along asking for caution without legislation then panicking and bringing in legislation when things begin to look scary. My impression is the data behind it is fairly secondary.
 


BN41Albion

Well-known member
Oct 1, 2017
6,826
Not my predictions, these are the countries finest scientists, pretty much to a man they are now saying we are heading at full speed into an absolute car crash, the next week's and months look incredibly grim. Maybe we should listen to them and do the right thing they are suggesting?

'Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), also warned that, based on their modelling, hospitalisations could peak between 3,000 and 10,000 a day and deaths at between 600 and 6,000 a day.'

In other words, they don't have a ****ing clue. 'between 600 and 6000' deaths and '3000 and 10000' hospitalisations is a laughably wide prediction. Predicting 6000 deaths a day when the majority of the country's elderly and vulnerable have been boostered is ridiculous scaremongering
 


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