[Politics] Brexit

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

Here's a little challenge that I'll put out there for our Brexiteers. It's not solely point-scoring as I'm genuinely interested in the answers - although I've got my own views on the matter.

Let's for a moment forget all the projections and forecasts about likely (or unlikely) job losses after Brexit. (For now, write them off.) Can anyone name ONE part of the economy where new jobs will be created after Brexit? We can't include the extra civil servant type roles on the borders. We'll also assume that the drop-off in immigration from the EU might lead to some employment opportunities to UK job-seekers - although this is not really because the sector will be doing well.


As I like to be fair I'll even kick this off with a burst of optimism. I reckon there be increased jobs in UK domestic tourism (good news for the south coast maybe). Why? Firstly the pound will probably (continue) to fall. Secondly we will take fewer foreign breaks not only because of the former factor but also because it'll be more hassle. There - I've started the post-Brexit optimism ball rolling. Any other sectors likely to do well?

 

[nicko31]

Here's a little challenge that I'll put out there for our Brexiteers. It's not solely point-scoring as I'm genuinely interested in the answers - although I've got my own views on the matter.

Let's for a moment forget all the projections and forecasts about likely (or unlikely) job losses after Brexit. (For now, write them off.) Can anyone name ONE part of the economy where new jobs will be created after Brexit? We can't include the extra civil servant type roles on the borders. We'll also assume that the drop-off in immigration from the EU might lead to some employment opportunities to UK job-seekers - although this is not really because the sector will be doing well.


As I like to be fair I'll even kick this off with a burst of optimism. I reckon there be increased jobs in UK domestic tourism (good news for the south coast maybe). Why? Firstly the pound will probably (continue) to fall. Secondly we will take fewer foreign breaks not only because of the former factor but also because it'll be more hassle. There - I've started the post-Brexit optimism ball rolling. Any other sectors likely to do well?

Can remainers join in?

Off licences in Kent should do well. No more booze cruises to Calais, 6 bottle of wine that's your lot. Just like pre-1992...

Actually increasing excise duty on alcohol after Brexit seems a no brainer for the exchequer. The Norway model...

 

[WATFORD zero]

Here's a little challenge that I'll put out there for our Brexiteers. It's not solely point-scoring as I'm genuinely interested in the answers - although I've got my own views on the matter.

Let's for a moment forget all the projections and forecasts about likely (or unlikely) job losses after Brexit. (For now, write them off.) Can anyone name ONE part of the economy where new jobs will be created after Brexit? We can't include the extra civil servant type roles on the borders. We'll also assume that the drop-off in immigration from the EU might lead to some employment opportunities to UK job-seekers - although this is not really because the sector will be doing well.


As I like to be fair I'll even kick this off with a burst of optimism. I reckon there be increased jobs in UK domestic tourism (good news for the south coast maybe). Why? Firstly the pound will probably (continue) to fall. Secondly we will take fewer foreign breaks not only because of the former factor but also because it'll be more hassle. There - I've started the post-Brexit optimism ball rolling. Any other sectors likely to do well?

I have noticed that none or our resident Brexiteers on here have come forward and said this is the industry that I'm in and this is how Brexit will benefit it.

All of those who are talking about the great opportunities in the wider world have never actually said how they will take advantage of these opportunities

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

So, what is the realistic roadmap for stopping this madness ?

 

[WATFORD zero]

So, what is the realistic roadmap for stopping this madness ?

Well, TM's current plan is to try and bypass the EU completely and negotiate with the individual heads of state.

Just when you thought it couldn't get more desperate

 

[happypig]

Apparently there were countries queueing up to sign trade agreements with us Australia, Japan, China, US among others. Here's a link, but I doubt you'll be much interested in the source

https://www.express.co.uk/news/poli...deals-Britain-countries-Project-Fear-campaign

That article is a year old and says 105 countries/blocs want to do a deal. How many deals have we done ? None.

 

[nicko31]

Well, TM's current plan is to try and bypass the EU completely and negotiate with the individual heads of state.

Just when you thought it couldn't get more desperate

She's just going the motions, better off just retiring to her villa in Tuscany, waste of time.

 

[Baldseagull]

Well, TM's current plan is to try and bypass the EU completely and negotiate with the individual heads of state.

Just when you thought it couldn't get more desperate

The only way to beat a Union is to divide it. Some of the states might wobble, but I suspect there is a party from the EU going round afterwards, reminding everyone TM has spoken to that a Union works by standing together.

 

[WATFORD zero]

The only way to beat a Union is to divide it. Some of the states might wobble, but I suspect there is a party from the EU going round afterwards, reminding everyone TM has spoken to that a Union works by standing together.

Before, during and after ! I suspect that you learn a thing or two about international negotiations with 40 years experience.

Shame that we decided we didn't want them on our side

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

I have noticed that none or our resident Brexiteers on here have come forward and said this is the industry that I'm in and this is how Brexit will benefit it.

All of those who are talking about the great opportunities in the wider world have never actually said how they will take advantage of these opportunities

Yes - you are right. OK, some of this simply can't (yet) be known but even a sliver of anecdote based, as you say, on someone's own industry would be something. So I'll do this for them (again). I think our universities might do well from the (non-EU)international students who will find us a bit of a global bargain basement. Whether they'll want to come to a country that might now be perceived as just that bit less 'friendly' is another matter.

 

[Hampster Gull]

Here's a little challenge that I'll put out there for our Brexiteers. It's not solely point-scoring as I'm genuinely interested in the answers - although I've got my own views on the matter.

Let's for a moment forget all the projections and forecasts about likely (or unlikely) job losses after Brexit. (For now, write them off.) Can anyone name ONE part of the economy where new jobs will be created after Brexit? We can't include the extra civil servant type roles on the borders. We'll also assume that the drop-off in immigration from the EU might lead to some employment opportunities to UK job-seekers - although this is not really because the sector will be doing well.


As I like to be fair I'll even kick this off with a burst of optimism. I reckon there be increased jobs in UK domestic tourism (good news for the south coast maybe). Why? Firstly the pound will probably (continue) to fall. Secondly we will take fewer foreign breaks not only because of the former factor but also because it'll be more hassle. There - I've started the post-Brexit optimism ball rolling. Any other sectors likely to do well?

Great question. Have been racking my brain but it’s pretty difficult to think of any. Perhaps once we are out we can compete with European businesses, who have aspccess to our biggest markets and will by then have many advantages over us, by lowering standards and competing on price. That might mean lower employee health and safety standards for example, which means our businesses would save money relative to the EU. So perhaps some manufacturing. We would probably go very low tax to encourage innovation and inward investment (which would likely mean much lower government spend on services such as the NHS). Some refer to this as the race to the bottom. But this is all too generic, perhaps the Brextremists will have a more granular answer

 

[Baldseagull]

Sigh.I will try again.What do the Czech Republic export to the UK that we cannot get elsewhere?

Remoska

 

[daveinprague]

You talk as though any Brexiteers actually thought about the outcome.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I have noticed that none or our resident Brexiteers on here have come forward and said this is the industry that I'm in and this is how Brexit will benefit it.

All of those who are talking about the great opportunities in the wider world have never actually said how they will take advantage of these opportunities

They’re all pensioners, that’s why. And as I understand it [MENTION=14132]Two Professors[/MENTION], when he worked, had his salary paid for by the tax payer. None of them live in a world where their jobs are at risk.

 

[WATFORD zero]

They’re all pensioners, that’s why. And as I understand it [MENTION=14132]Two Professors[/MENTION], when he worked, had his salary paid for by the tax payer. None of them live in a world where their jobs are at risk.

Going for a WTO 'no deal' Brexit on a state pension could prove an interesting choice

 

[hans kraay fan club]

On the Brexit-benefits conundrum - I guess any exporters stand to become pretty competitive, if the value of the £ drops through the floor. Good news for Whisky distillers and kilt makers. By the same token UK tourism might enjoy a boost - when a £100 hotel room works out as about US$70, the yanks will be queuing up to come and take selfies with the Queen.

On the jobs front, I can't foresee anything but trouble. A huge % of the workforce rely on government money, for starters. I don't refer to just public employees, but to service industries serving the public sector. My company for example sells equipment to the leisure centre / swimming pool industry. Cash-strapped economy = no new centres being built = no sales = job losses.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

So, what is the realistic roadmap for stopping this madness ?

This isn't intended to be a pro or anti Brexit post. It doesn't claim to be informed. I'd be interested to know the views of others, including Brexiteers.

The roadmap to stopping Brexit looks to me like a six race accumulator - there are one or two likely winners in there but getting all of them right will be difficult.

Race 1 - For one reason or another, ERG makes its move and succeeds in bringing down May in a vote of no confidence.

Race 2 - They fail, however, to win the second vote (required by the FT Parliaments Act) 14 days later, so triggering a general election.

Race 3 - Opposition parties unite behind a pledge to hold a second referendum.

Race 4 - EU 28 agree to extend Article 50 to accommodate second referendum

Race 5 - Government falls

Race 6 - Subsequent referendum reflects current opinion polls and UK remains in the EU

The toughest race for those of my persuasion to win is Race 2. It would require a number of Conservative MPs to, in effect, bring a Conservative government down. It is a very hard call. For it to happen the opinion polls would have to continue to show the current public wish for a second referendum and to remain in the EU.

An alternative line up for race 1 would be for pro-European Tories to force a vote should the country be faced with a 'no deal'. Equally, a vote could emerge from a situation of complete impasse.

The key driver in all this is the continuing shift in public opinion regarding Brexit - if it carries on in its present apparent direction then all bets may be on.

My prediction at the moment is that there will be a heavy dose of fudge and we will leave on March 29. May will last a week after that if she's lucky. These are fluid times though,

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

This isn't intended to be a pro or anti Brexit post. It doesn't claim to be informed. I'd be interested to know the views of others, including Brexiteers.

The roadmap to stopping Brexit looks to me like a six race accumulator - there are one or two likely winners in there but getting all of them right will be difficult.

Race 1 - For one reason or another, ERG makes its move and succeeds in bringing down May in a vote of no confidence.

Race 2 - They fail, however, to win the second vote (required by the FT Parliaments Act) 14 days later, so triggering a general election.

Race 3 - Opposition parties unite behind a pledge to hold a second referendum.

Race 4 - EU 28 agree to extend Article 50 to accommodate second referendum

Race 5 - Government falls

Race 6 - Subsequent referendum reflects current opinion polls and UK remains in the EU

The toughest race for those of my persuasion to win is Race 2. It would require a number of Conservative MPs to, in effect, bring a Conservative government down. It is a very hard call. For it to happen the opinion polls would have to continue to show the current public wish for a second referendum and to remain in the EU.

An alternative line up for race 1 would be for pro-European Tories to force a vote should the country be faced with a 'no deal'. Equally, a vote could emerge from a situation of complete impasse.

The key driver in all this is the continuing shift in public opinion regarding Brexit - if it carries on in its present apparent direction then all bets may be on.

My prediction at the moment is that there will be a heavy dose of fudge and we will leave on March 29. May will last a week after that if she's lucky. These are fluid times though,

Not sure I like the idea of 'fluid fudge'. I'm going for the impasse option, but my guess is no better than anybody's.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Apparently there were countries queueing up to sign trade agreements with us Australia, Japan, China, US among others. Here's a link, but I doubt you'll be much interested in the source

https://www.express.co.uk/news/poli...deals-Britain-countries-Project-Fear-campaign

Certainly the Express has spoken of this line of countries queueing up to do deals with us. It makes stirring reading. The trouble is reality.

Of the four prime examples you list, it is likely that as EU members we will already have - or be about to have - trade deals with Australia and Japan. Far from leaving the EU to sign magnificent new deals with Australia and Japan we will be leaving the EU in order to tear them up. (Hopefully we will be able to come up with some sort of replacement in future but the Australians have said that their priority is the EU. Can't blame them. It's a much bigger market.)

The US? As things stand, the regulatory position alone means that a trade deal with the US can only be at the expense of our existing trading relationships with the 27 EU nations. Trump himself has made that clear.

China? I'm sure that there are some things of ours the Chinese would like more of but as Germany has shown you don't have to leave the EU to crack some wonderful business with China.

 

[Ernest]

On the Brexit-benefits conundrum - I guess any exporters stand to become pretty competitive, if the value of the £ drops through the floor. Good news for Whisky distillers and kilt makers. By the same token UK tourism might enjoy a boost - when a £100 hotel room works out as about US$70, the yanks will be queuing up to come and take selfies with the Queen.

On the jobs front, I can't foresee anything but trouble. A huge % of the workforce rely on government money, for starters. I don't refer to just public employees, but to service industries serving the public sector. My company for example sells equipment to the leisure centre / swimming pool industry. Cash-strapped economy = no new centres being built = no sales = job losses.

Think of all those extra stewards needed to marshall the car and lorry parks in Kent then there is the thousands needed to get rid of the rotting fruit and veg as it goes manky in the lorries in the queues, you are just not seeing the benefits of Brexit are you