[Politics] Brexit

[shingle]

That article is a year old and says 105 countries/blocs want to do a deal. How many deals have we done ? None.

We're not allowed to until we leave the EU

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Think of all those extra stewards needed to marshall the car and lorry parks in Kent then there is the thousands needed to get rid of the rotting fruit and veg as it goes manky in the lorries in the queues, you are just not seeing the benefits of Brexit are you

Garden of England, Car Park of England....has a ring to it.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

We're not allowed to until we leave the EU

And then Albania can say “you now need us more than we need you......let’s talk”

 

[Hampster Gull]

Here's a little challenge that I'll put out there for our Brexiteers. It's not solely point-scoring as I'm genuinely interested in the answers - although I've got my own views on the matter.

Let's for a moment forget all the projections and forecasts about likely (or unlikely) job losses after Brexit. (For now, write them off.) Can anyone name ONE part of the economy where new jobs will be created after Brexit? We can't include the extra civil servant type roles on the borders. We'll also assume that the drop-off in immigration from the EU might lead to some employment opportunities to UK job-seekers - although this is not really because the sector will be doing well.


As I like to be fair I'll even kick this off with a burst of optimism. I reckon there be increased jobs in UK domestic tourism (good news for the south coast maybe). Why? Firstly the pound will probably (continue) to fall. Secondly we will take fewer foreign breaks not only because of the former factor but also because it'll be more hassle. There - I've started the post-Brexit optimism ball rolling. Any other sectors likely to do well?

 

[Two Professors]

Remoska

I had never heard of it before,and hopefully,after Brexit,will never see it again.What a piece of dangerous junk.

 

[Two Professors]

Going for a WTO 'no deal' Brexit on a state pension could prove an interesting choice

Might as well reply to both your posts at the same time.Only one of my jobs was Government service.I have four pensions,including State.We are still Leaving.

 

[Hampster Gull]

Purchasing managers disappointingly report #UK #manufacturing activity slowed to a 3-month low in July as PMI dipped to 54.0 from 54.3 in June. Output growth slowed to an 18-month low while new orders slowed to 13-month low as domestic demand softened. Confidence at 21-month low

Time to stop this madness, it’s not what the British people voted for

 

[Two Professors]

This isn't intended to be a pro or anti Brexit post. It doesn't claim to be informed. I'd be interested to know the views of others, including Brexiteers.

The roadmap to stopping Brexit looks to me like a six race accumulator - there are one or two likely winners in there but getting all of them right will be difficult.

Race 1 - For one reason or another, ERG makes its move and succeeds in bringing down May in a vote of no confidence.

Race 2 - They fail, however, to win the second vote (required by the FT Parliaments Act) 14 days later, so triggering a general election.

Race 3 - Opposition parties unite behind a pledge to hold a second referendum.

Race 4 - EU 28 agree to extend Article 50 to accommodate second referendum

Race 5 - Government falls

Race 6 - Subsequent referendum reflects current opinion polls and UK remains in the EU

The toughest race for those of my persuasion to win is Race 2. It would require a number of Conservative MPs to, in effect, bring a Conservative government down. It is a very hard call. For it to happen the opinion polls would have to continue to show the current public wish for a second referendum and to remain in the EU.

An alternative line up for race 1 would be for pro-European Tories to force a vote should the country be faced with a 'no deal'. Equally, a vote could emerge from a situation of complete impasse.

The key driver in all this is the continuing shift in public opinion regarding Brexit - if it carries on in its present apparent direction then all bets may be on.

My prediction at the moment is that there will be a heavy dose of fudge and we will leave on March 29. May will last a week after that if she's lucky. These are fluid times though,

Really cannot see May lasting beyond October when the EU say Nein,Non,Nyet (but in English,the international language).A lot depends on Italy's financial position in September.A shame that only Watford Gap has a crystal ball.An equal shame is that it's opaque.

 

[Baldseagull]

Sigh.I will try again.What do the Czech Republic export to the UK that we cannot get elsewhere?

Koh-I-Nor snap fasteners.

 

[Two Professors]

Purchasing managers disappointingly report #UK #manufacturing activity slowed to a 3-month low in July as PMI dipped to 54.0 from 54.3 in June. Output growth slowed to an 18-month low while new orders slowed to 13-month low as domestic demand softened. Confidence at 21-month low

Time to stop this madness, it’s not what the British people voted for

Anything over 50 is positive,I think.On a bit of a downward trend,like the rest of the EU!

 

[WATFORD zero]

I had never heard of it before,and hopefully,after Brexit,will never see it again.What a piece of dangerous junk.

Let's face it, we haven't time to discuss what you haven't heard of, we leave in March and even I don't think we'll get a long enough extension of membership for that.

What about the 600M we import from Czech Republic in car parts to keep our automotive industry going. (At 3.9% percent of our parts imports, it's not huge but the same as USA and China). I assume whatever the answer is, we will do the same with the rest of our major car part suppliers, Germany, France, Belgium, Italy, Poland and Spain who all supply us with far more.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Might as well reply to both your posts at the same time.Only one of my jobs was Government service.I have four pensions,including State.We are still Leaving.

I think the pressures getting to you. You're seeing double

 

[Hampster Gull]

Anything over 50 is positive,I think.On a bit of a downward trend,like the rest of the EU!

Was assuming you were spending your time researching what industries will be better off post Brexit. So far we have car park attendants and the tourism industry, perhaps universities. The latter two driven by low sterling though, and we could engineer that within the EU if we chose,so not sure they count.

 

[The Clamp]

I'm not convinced the British public wouldn't be just as stupid in a 2nd ref. Better to pull the plaster off quickly and just reverse Brexit now. There won't be a soul in the country that won't be relieved, secretly or otherwise. Whatever they say on here.

 

[The Clamp]

Was assuming you were spending your time researching what industries will be better off post Brexit. So far we have car park attendants and the tourism industry, perhaps universities. The latter two driven by low sterling though, and we could engineer that within the EU if we chose,so not sure they count.

You can rule universities out of that demographic straight away. They are gonna really struggle due to the lack of foreign take-up.

 

[Triggaaar]

For it to happen the opinion polls would have to continue to show the current public wish for a second referendum and to remain in the EU.

Could you post a link to the existing polls showing this desire?

 

[wellquickwoody]

Koh-I-Nor snap fasteners.

Quality engineering at an affordable price compared to the rest of the developed world. If the UK tries to source the same products from the cheaper markets then they will be risking quality control, if they source from other high quality markets the price will be far higher than from the Czech Republic.

 

[pb21]

Was assuming you were spending your time researching what industries will be better off post Brexit. So far we have car park attendants and the tourism industry, perhaps universities. The latter two driven by low sterling though, and we could engineer that within the EU if we chose,so not sure they count.

Well the blue UK passport industry, that's going to be booming surely

 

[Mellotron]

Could you post a link to the existing polls showing this desire?

https://www.holyrood.com/articles/news/half-uk-voters-support-second-eu-referendum-finds-poll

Second Referendum?
Yes - 50%
No - 40%
Don't Know - 10%

YouGov for The Times

Yes - 42%
No - 40%
Don't Know - 18%

BMG Independent Poll

Yes - 44%
No - 27%
Don't Know - 29%

From polls over last 3 months - i.e. previously fairly strongly against a second ref, national sentiment is now swinging quite strongly towards a second ref.

 

[Triggaaar]

From polls over last 3 months - i.e. previously fairly strongly against a second ref, national sentiment is now swinging quite strongly towards a second ref.

Thanks. Can you post a link to those polls?

I can't see the YouGov one, but Huffington post says:

"But while voters have conceded another vote on the UK’s exit deal is needed, they have not changed their minds in significant numbers over the UK’s membership of the EU, according to a YouGov poll for The Times newspaper."