[Politics] Brexit

[nicko31]

Protecting your own interests, is not bullying. We would do exactly the same in the EU's position. Sadly, our negotiating position for this adventure appears to be on all fours.

Indeed if there was a Frexit and France was leaving we'd want the EU to stand up for our interests.

Another week, another wave of dis-unity in the Tory party, I said in 2015 they couldn't be trusted to govern alone as nothing now could be further from the truth. If they ditch spreadsheet Phil we're screwed

 

[Jim D]

Protecting your own interests, is not bullying. We would do exactly the same in the EU's position. Sadly, our negotiating position for this adventure appears to be on all fours.

So, is 'protecting your own interests' and 'teaching us a lesson' the same thing then? It seems to me that the EU are trying to extract exemplary damages for our impertinence.

 

[daveinprague]

So, is 'protecting your own interests' and 'teaching us a lesson' the same thing then? It seems to me that the EU are trying to extract exemplary damages damages for our impertinence.

Its ok... Our 'negotiating team' will 'do their best'.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...ichel-Barnier-Britain-educating-UK-leaving-EU

 

[nicko31]

And this is why the referendum was a bad idea. What proportion of the population understand the Northern Ireland issue with no deal. Here is another vote leave staffer explaining why no deal is a car crash. https://twitter.com/olivernorgrove/status/918146495584653313

If only Brexit was just about economics and jobs losses, its a lot more complicated than that. I'm afraid most people just don't understand that, but to be frank I wouldn't expect them too,...

 

[Jim D]

The EU are negotiating from an incredibly strong position and will ensure that members of the club will get a far better deal than those who aren't in the club.I have no idea whether our negotiating team are doing well or not, but they were f***ed from the start (and before you start again about JC etc, it's not a left/right thing).

The only question I have is what the f*** did you expect, 'here's a great deal and don't pay us anything ?'

And don't hold your breath waiting for a result. If negotiations completed tomorrow, there is no way we could implement the result in time. (And that is from some years of working with Government and Civil Service). There will be a fudge.

I expected us to leave the EU and spend two years negotiating the exit. I didn't expect to pay anything to leave other than our obligations - which should be no more than we currently pay for the time we stay in it. I don't believe anyone thought that we would face a charge to leave (certainly not Remain, or we would have heard all about it). I expected us to negotiate our own deals straight away - but not sign them until we leave.
My real suspicion over this leaving bill, and why they want to get it paid upfront, is that they'll then extract further charges for anything else that we agree (irrespective of whether or not it was already covered). It's like dealing with the worst type of trader and constantly being fobbed off with a request to sign a new agreement for more and 'it'll be alright' when we go to them.

 

[studio150]

So you don't think that, ever since the referendum, we have been bombarded with reasons why we got it wrong and why people voted to leave? Frankly, for me, it's water off a duck's back but it doesn't stop people from trawling through masses of comment and reporting to find articles negative to Brexit and gleefully posting them here. The general trend of these articles is to imply the electorate (or at least those voting to leave) didn't know what they were doing and that there should be another vote.
Regarding bullying, I don't know what else you can call it when people like Juncker say that that they want to teach us a lesson and that we must not come out of this well. The fact that they insisted on the successful resolution of the three items before moving on - surely most now accept that the Irish border issue can't be resolved before we know what the trading arrangements will be. I think we were foolish to agree to this but our hand was forced by the EUs ridiculous refusal to discuss anything else. The EU are fully aware that we need to move forward quickly and their tactics are all about slowing everything down. We expect both sides to approach these negotiations determined to get the best outcome but, while we know what that will be for us, the EUs best outcome seems to be that we will be made an example of - and no other member country will want to leave ever again. Do you think that's not bullying?
As for the team (and you have to include everyone in it) I think we've done remarkably well considering that we had almost no trained negotiators at the start - and the EU in general had many more. I have no idea what the respective differences of our or their leadership are, but I see ours trying to move on and theirs just standing there saying 'no'.

What a surprise, 'I see ours trying to move on'

No, they are just spouting out what they want to achieve without understanding that it may not be possible due to the self imposed red lines then blaming the EU.

Northern Ireland border, Oh don't worry about that we wont't have a proper one, we'll just have CCTV and a digital one. Which just shows how unprepared our side have been in all this. Anyone with any foresight would have seen that a border would be required between the UK and the EU. Whether visas, pre visit information, or finger prints etc would be necessary is irrelevant.

Then existing EU citizens, yes they can stay, but we then say we want to impose a whole raft of restrictions which erodes their current position.

The EU not moving immediately to the UK wish list is not bullying it is just a maintaining their position. Everyday there are negotiations in business which will either breakdown, or one side will have to accept less due to red line issues. This is not just saying no, but looking after the business.This is all the EU is doing.

Let's assume the the EU said to the UK, we will provide you with everything you want, no freedom of movement, but you can have access tot he free market without any cost or additional red tape.

Yes, the UK shouts, Mrs May says this is the best deal ever achieved.

But then the catch comes.......The UK must concede Gibraltar to Spain immediately.

No worries, or a No

You need to consider from both points of view.

 

[ManOfSussex]

I expected us to leave the EU and spend two years negotiating the exit. I didn't expect to pay anything to leave other than our obligations - which should be no more than we currently pay for the time we stay in it. I don't believe anyone thought that we would face a charge to leave (certainly not Remain, or we would have heard all about it). I expected us to negotiate our own deals straight away - but not sign them until we leave.
My real suspicion over this leaving bill, and why they want to get it paid upfront, is that they'll then extract further charges for anything else that we agree (irrespective of whether or not it was already covered). It's like dealing with the worst type of trader and constantly being fobbed off with a request to sign a new agreement for more and 'it'll be alright' when we go to them.

Yanis Varoufakis who has spoken at great length from personal experience on numerous occasions and has a deep disliking of The EU and knows a thing-or-two about it, gave this written interview, as well as a broadcast version back in the spring -

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/03/the-six-brexit-traps-that-will-defeat-theresa-may

Sequencing

The prerequisite for Greece’s recovery was, and remains, meaningful debt relief. No debt relief meant no future for us. My mandate was to negotiate, therefore, a sensible debt restructure. If the EU was prepared to do this, so as to get as much of their money back as possible, I was also prepared for major compromises. But this would require a comprehensive deal. But, no, Brussels and Berlin insisted that, first, I commit to the compromises they wanted and then, much later, we could begin negotiations on debt relief. The point-blank refusal to negotiate on both at once is, I am sure, a colossal frustration awaiting May when she seeks to compromise on the terms of the divorce in exchange for longer-term free trade arrangements.

So what can Theresa May do?

The only way May could secure a good deal for the UK would be by diffusing the EU’s spoiling tactics, while still respecting the Burkean Brexiteers’ strongest argument, the imperative of restoring sovereignty to the House of Commons. And the only way of doing this would be to avoid all negotiations by requesting from Brussels a Norway-style, off-the-shelf arrangement for a period of, say, seven years.

The benefits from such a request would be twofold: first, Eurocrats and Europhiles would have no basis for denying Britain such an arrangement. (Moreover, Schäuble, Merkel and sundry would be relieved that the ball is thrown into their successors’ court seven years down the track.) Second, it would make the House of Commons sovereign again by empowering it to debate and decide upon in the fullness of time, and without the stress of a ticking clock, Britain’s long-tem relationship with Europe. The fact that May has opted for a Brexit negotiation that will immediately activate the EU’s worst instincts and tactics, for petty party-political reasons that ultimately have everything to do with her own power and nothing to do with Britain’s optimal agreement with the EU, means only one thing: she does not deserve the mandate that Brussels is keen to neutralise.

Just because we're the United Kingdom and they're Greece hasn't materialised into anything different for us for us yet and the clock is ticking. It was not in The EU's or anyone's interest for Greece to jettison out of The Eurozone and The EU without a deal a couple of years ago and aside from the financial implications on the Greeks of such a scenario, the practical day-to-day realities of such an outcome to Greece were well known.

We can call their bluff though, because they need us more than we need them and no deal is perfectly okay etc, etc.....I saw John Redwood on Sky News last night more-or-less still stating just this, so in 18 months time we'll find out.

 

[5ways]

Trouble is if you try to bully the Great British public they will rebel. The EU could find this out at there cost. The way Barnier and the drunkard Juncker go on has alienated a fair few by the look. May has some hope after all thanks to them

What cost is that!?

 

[BigGully]

What cost is that!?

Have you absolutely no perception of quite reasonable strengths of the UK's position in Europe, none at all ??

 

[beorhthelm]

What cost is that!?

increased cost of debt in bond markets, estimated by EU itself to be hundreds of billions over the next decade. other than that, im sure they wont care, there's bound to be no impact whatsoever to them.

 

[GT49er]

Who did that then?

Jean-Claude Juncker (100 billion Euros).

 

[5ways]

Have you absolutely no perception of quite reasonable strengths of the UK's position in Europe, none at all ??

Please spell them out for those without your dazzling perception.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Even Mr Barnier is getting a tad annoyed with his negotiating remit

The EU's chief negotiator wants Germany to stop blocking Brexit talks

http://uk.businessinsider.com/the-e...germany-to-stop-blocking-brexit-talks-2017-10

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/...th-call-to-begin-brexit-trade-talks-t7sbfjrf3

EU dancing to Germany's tune ... makes a change. No more concessions until trade talks commence, call their bluff and get that spineless weasel out of No11 #takebackcontrol

 

[portslade seagull]

What cost is that!?

A no deal cost. It seems they are only worried about the divorce bill and the size of it. So to jeopardise that would hurt them somewhat

 

[nicko31]

Well seems the divorce bill is at the centre of the deadlock

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41585430

Yes the 1% of our output we pay to the EU, of course it was less before our currency crashed

Pity we can't pay as much attention to the other 99%

 

[beorhthelm]

EU dancing to Germany's tune ... makes a change. No more concessions until trade talks commence, call their bluff and get that spineless weasel out of No11 #takebackcontrol

i'd take a pinch of salt with "blame the Germans" at this stage - they are in transition themselves so it may be simply delaying until they know the new governments policy.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

i'd take a pinch of salt with "blame the Germans" at this stage - they are in transition themselves so it may be simply delaying until they know the new governments policy.

Perhaps but Merkel will still be the one calling the shots I doubt there will be much/any shift in position after the coalition is finalised. They (as the biggest net contributor) have the biggest interest in extracting the largest divorce settlement possible to avoid picking up the tab.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Well seems the divorce bill is at the centre of the deadlock

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41585430

Yes the 1% of our output we pay to the EU, of course it was less before our currency crashed

Pity we can't pay as much attention to the other 99%

What do you suggest? Cave in on the artificial sequencing of negotiations, settle and sign off the divorce bill removing it as a bargaining chip for us in the trade talks? #teameu

 

[nicko31]

What do you suggest? Cave in on the artificial sequencing of negotiations, settle and sign off the divorce bill removing it as a bargaining chip for us in the trade talks? #teameu

Yes we need to get the divorce bill done, a bad trade deal will cost us a lot more, and god forbid deal. The government need to start worrying less about what offshore newspaper proprietors think

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Yes we need to get the divorce bill done, a bad trade deal will cost us a lot more, and god forbid deal. The government need to start worrying less about what offshore newspaper proprietors think

Give in to a unilaterally imposed sequencing letting the EU have the ultimate say on when we have given enough of a divorce settlement before moving on to the next phase and repeat ...otherwise known as Bend over and grab your ankles.