[Politics] Brexit

[5ways]

I sense some frustration that people aren't just convinced by weight of numbers of speculative reports predicting we might possibly have growth at a slower rate if we vote to regain our independence.

Perhaps some people note many of these organisations don't have the best interests of the British people at heart, perhaps some detect a level of cynical manipulation for nefarious purposes, perhaps some don't simply take at face value everything governments tell us, perhaps some realise sovereignty doesn't belong to governments but to the people and don't won't it continually diminished, perhaps some value democracy and want as clear & short a route as possible to kick out the people instigating policy and laws, perhaps some people don't need a risk free blueprint which no one could honestly produce anyway realising no path in life is risk free, perhaps some people know we have been lied to and misled on immigration year in year out so want to send a clear unambiguous message that enough is enough, perhaps some resent voting for what they thought was staying in a purely economic trade block last time seeing it change beyond all recognition, perhaps some people think the EU is never going to reform and Ever closer union is inevitable come what may, perhaps some have faith in their country to prosper as an independent nation like the vast majority of nations throughout the world. Just a few reasons that people might have a valid and reasonable opinion at variance with yours that makes Brexit the better option.

Some fair points but when deciding the on future of the country I want the raw facts and numbers, not romantic sentiment and hopeful aspirations of a brighter tomorrow.

 

[drew]

Let's assume that poll was accurate so that would mean 36% of Dutch people either don't want to be in the EU or are not sure.
If Italy had a vote it would probably be alot higher taking into account their economic situation plus perhaps Spain and other countries.You then have the UK where again a large amount of people want out.So to sum up you have millions and millions of people in an organisation they do not wish to be in.How can that possibly be right.

It perhaps can be seen as far more democratic if more people want to remain that we then remain in the EU than the situation in this country where a party can govern as they see fit when 64% of the electorate voted against them!

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Some fair points but when deciding the on future of the country I want the raw facts and numbers, not romantic sentiment and hopeful aspirations of a brighter tomorrow.

Very much so. And until these reassurances can be provided I'll stick.

 

[beorhthelm]

Some fair points but when deciding the on future of the country I want the raw facts and numbers,

why then would you keep accepting the managed, massaged and manipulated numbers from the Chancellor, a man who cant even accurately predict spending/borrowing within a quarter but wants to predict 2-15 years hence?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

why then would you keep accepting the managed, massaged and manipulated numbers from the Chancellor, a man who cant even accurately predict spending/borrowing within a quarter but wants to predict 2-15 years hence?

We don't necessarily accept anything....hence the preference to stick.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Quite sad the end bit.....all trace of English East End way of life gone within 10 years or less....

Your right though

I haven't seen the programme yet but it got a cracking review this morning. I always assumed that the inward migration to Newham was almost entirely from the old commonweath though. How would this have been affected by free movement within the EU?

 

[Lincoln Imp]

I read the anti EU comments on Daily Mail online in response to EU articles and always there is a massive support for those comments.If the national opinion reflected that support then Brexit would win hands down but sadly I don't think that will be the case.

I agree with you! The Daily Mail is not a reliable indication of how people will vote. As far as I can see it consists entirely of people who loathe the EU talking to people who loathe the EU.

Having said that I am not as convinced as some Brexiters on here that the vote will go against them. The Leave campaign is about to switch its target to immigration and that is such an emotive subject that no one can predict the result. The concept of 80 million Turks wandering around the place might just rattle enough people and with Brexit ministers saying we have no veto over Turkish entry who knows what will happen.

 

[5ways]

why then would you keep accepting the managed, massaged and manipulated numbers from the Chancellor, a man who cant even accurately predict spending/borrowing within a quarter but wants to predict 2-15 years hence?

Even if the Chancellor's numbers are slightly out, and they have not been debunked just queried, it is difficult to ignore the cumulative evidence that Brexit is very damaging. I don't have to accept Osborne's numbers if I don't want to, I can get a second opinion from the IMF, OECD, LSE or BoE.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I agree with you! The Daily Mail is not a reliable indication of how people will vote. As far as I can see it consists entirely of people who loathe the EU talking to people who loathe the EU.

Having said that I am not as convinced as some Brexiters on here that the vote will go against them. The Leave campaign is about to switch its target to immigration and that is such an emotive subject that no one can predict the result. The concept of 80 million Turks wandering around the place might just rattle enough people and with Brexit ministers saying we have no veto over Turkish entry who knows what will happen.

I hope they do, so the Remain camp can loudly and publicly state that Turkey joining the EU will not happen unless the uk wants it to happen

 

[Trufflehound]

...and with Brexit ministers saying we have no veto over Turkish entry who knows what will happen.

Indeed.

Not sure which part of this phrase (lifted from several EU sources) the Brexit ministers are failing to grasp: "...every step towards membership requires the unanimous approval of the Member States." Possibly the word "unanimous"?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Thanks for responding. That makes the IFS numbers make more sense.

It does however make it significantly worse for the IMF (now down to 0.0016% of their overall budget).

The OECD budget page does seem quite convinced that its budget comes from member countries, although even if the EU did contribute the number stated it's less than 1% of their budget over the past 9 years.

I'm not sure the argument that these groups are producing reports to keep their own pockets lined is a particularly strong one given this. Are you?

That wouldn't be a strong argument if someone was making it but trying to find out if someone's definition of independent organisations takes into account where they get some of their funding from is reasonable.

The Government minister stating the OECD had received EU funding was the delightful Priti Patel but I'm not sure what evidence she based this on plus of course she is pro Brexit.

 

[5ways]

Brand new report this morning - this time from the Institute of Fiscal Studies:

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has this morning joined the many respected economic bodies saying that Brexit would produce a short-term hit to the economy. It has set out its views in an 80-page report, Brexit and the UK’s Public Finances (pdf).

Here is an extract from the news release.

In the short run, our estimates therefore suggest that the overall effect of Brexit would be to damage the public finances. On the basis of estimates by NIESR, the effect could be between £20 billion and £40 billion in 2019–20, more than enough to wipe out the planned surplus. In the long run, lower GDP would likely mean lower cash levels of public spending.

To put this in context, dealing with the public finance effect would require at least an additional one or two years of ‘austerity’ – spending cuts or tax rises – at the same rate as we have experienced recently to get the public finances back to balance (should that remain the government’s priority). Following this path would also mean government debt remaining higher than otherwise, and additional debt interest payments.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...-brexit-would-prolong-austerity-politics-live

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Indeed.

Not sure which part of this phrase (lifted from several EU sources) the Brexit ministers are failing to grasp: "...every step towards membership requires the unanimous approval of the Member States." Possibly the word "unanimous"?

I suspect that Penny Mordaunt is taking one for the team. She lied about the veto, she knows she lied and she knew she would get caught. The Brexit calculation is that some of the lie would stick. It's probably being repeated in every saloon bar from here to Frinton as we speak.

 

[Creaky]

I suspect that Penny Mordaunt is taking one for the team. She lied about the veto, she knows she lied and she knew she would get caught. The Brexit calculation is that some of the lie would stick. It's probably being repeated in every saloon bar from here to Frinton as we speak.

And even if the UK could be persuaded to support Turkey's membership there is a much bigger hurdle to cross, the veto which Cyprus insisted on retaining when they joined the EU.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

In the same poll I quoted above, 55% of Dutch people said they didn't want a referendum.

But in the much broader sense, the one person who stands to gain most from the break up of Europe is Mr Putin. And we all want that don't we?

Which us why Uncle Vlad is funding political parties across Europe that support breaking away from the EU. ( Historians of the future will contemplate whether this is an initial part of a Hybrid war vs the EU ).

Now there is no evidence that he has funded UKIP, but of course Farage has appeared a lot on RT giving interviews, and cuddly Nige was very scared of publishing his tax return...

 

[larus]

Why would I be surprised that other Europeans are watching? I credit them with the intelligence to see the bigger picture and to realise that it affects everyone, in the broadest "united we stand..." sense.

For the record by the way, in a poll last week 64% of Dutch people said they would vote 'in' if there was a referendum on a "Nexit", so I'm not convinced your friend got the true picture on his business trip. It's only a small but vociferous minority of "little Hollanders", their fears about immigration stoked up by odious racial hatemongers Geert Wilders and his PVV, who are firmly in the 'out' camp.

And a recent poll in Italy put the figure at 48% wanting out.

 

[Trufflehound]

And a recent poll in Italy put the figure at 48% wanting out.

So 52% don't want out then. Which, last time I looked, was more than 48%.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Some fair points but when deciding the on future of the country I want the raw facts and numbers, not romantic sentiment and hopeful aspirations of a brighter tomorrow.

Quite, the fact we know we cannot control EU immigration numbers if we vote remain, the fact we know every EU treaty signed leads to more powers leaving these shores, the fact we know ever closer union will continue no matter what we do or say, the fact we know we are helping to pay for Turkey and other accession countries to meet the required EU entry standard, the fact we are paying Billions every year just to be a member, the fact we have tier 2 membership and can be outvoted by an inbuilt tier 1 Eurozone majority, the fact we are on the losing side more often than any Nation in the Council of ministers .. to name but a few. I can't bring myself to believe romantic sentiment that this will all suddenly change, or that a brighter future awaits as we reform and mould the EU in a direction more to our liking.

 

[larus]

Maybe they're not looking at the bigger picture: that a Brexit weakens the EU (whether or not others follow the UK's lead), and a weakened EU strengthens Putin's role in Europe.

I get so f***ed off with these stupid statements that the EU protects us. It's NATO which has provided the security in Europe, not the EU.

There was an article today in the Times reporting that a number of decorated generals say that we are weakened by being in the EU.

This is from another website, but in essence is similar to the Times article. I guess these are just little Englanders again though.

--------------------------------


A dozen of the country’s most decorated generals and admirals broke ranks yesterday to warn that membership of the European Union is damaging Britain’s ability to fight.


The group from the Army, Royal Navy and Royal Marines described the EU as undemocratic and illegitimate form of government.


Their intervention was a major filip to the Brexit campaign which had been fighting a rearguard action against the release of another report, this one from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), which highlighted the potential financial costs of leaving Europe.


Among those to speak out yesterday were Major General Julian Thompson, a verteran of the Falklands War, and General Sir Michael Rose, a former SAS chief.


General Rose said European laws had already “seriously undermined UK’s combat effectiveness” while Maj Gen Thompson dismissed the EU as being “dominated by people who we do not elect, who we cannot throw out and who dictate many of the laws which govern us”.

Vice Admiral Sir Jeremy Blackham, a former Deputy Chief of the Defence Staff, said that the Brussels institutions were “an unacceptable and illegitimate form of government”.


Among the other retired officers – who between them have served in every one of Britain’s wars since Korea – to publicly give their support to the Veterans for Britain campaign were Lieutenant-General Jonathon Riley who raised the spectre of Britain’s military forces being subsumed into an EU army, and Rear Admiral Richard Heaslip, former commander of the Navy’s submarine service, who added: “The claim that the existence of the EU has saved us from war for 70 years is a myth.”


Their views were in stark contrast to those of four Second World War veterans, including Field Marshal Lord Bramall, who spoke in support of the Remain campaign earlier this month as David Cameron said Brexit would put peace and stability on the Continent at risk.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

NATO is all well and good until Donald J Trump pulls the USA out of it.