[Politics] Brexit

[dingodan]

I have a prediction if we remain.

In the years and decades to come, responding to the challenges the EU will inevitably face, the EU (commission) will be comprised of ever more authoritarian, protectionist, and "anti workers-rights" (etc) attitudes.

In the meantime the UK will have, at some point during this time, a liberal left leaning government. A government whose hands are tied and who will be unable to formulate the policies you want, and unable to resist policies which you despise.

At which point a lot of you who now want to remain in the EU will be asking what you can do about the policies being forced on us by the EU. The answer will be - nothing.

Then you will call for a refurendum on EU membership, now that "the game has changed" and you are "better informed" about the implications of being ruled over from Brussels.

& you will do it all with a straight face.

 

[Irate Ninja]

Bet you've never won the lottery

 

[WATFORD zero]

Surely if that was the case it would strengthen our hand?

I'm assuming that was a 'yes' because we've now gone onto

I have a prediction if we remain.

In the years and decades to come, responding to the challenges the EU will inevitably face, the EU (commission) will be comprised of ever more authoritarian, protectionist, and "anti workers-rights" (etc) attitudes.

In the meantime the UK will have, at some point during this time, a liberal left leaning government. A government whose hands are tied and who will be unable to formulate the policies you want, and unable to resist policies which you despise.

At which point a lot of you who now want to remain in the EU will be asking what you can do about the policies being forced on us by the EU. The answer will be - nothing.

Then you will call for a refurendum on EU membership, now that "the game has changed" and you are "better informed" about the implications of being ruled over from Brussels.

& you will do it all with a straight face.

So you've given up trying to explain how your preferred 'no deal' would work and decided to play 'fantasy futures' instead.

I know someone who is very good at that

 

[Baldseagull]

Twitter thread on the legal requirements related to an A50 extension as seems to be the current flavour of the month

[TWEET]1084819342229991430[/TWEET]

He has highlighted that the date of exit day and the definition of exit day can be amended by secondary legislation.

 

[Baldseagull]

No it's being kept quiet because the realization that no deal wouldn't be a disaster weakens No.10's hand when it comes to securing votes for TM's deal.

 

[A1X]

He has highlighted that the date of exit day and the definition of exit day can be amended by secondary legislation.

Indeed. He's an excellent follow for Twitterers who want to keep up with the legal side of all this stuff and can handle a few home truths (on both sides).

 

[dingodan]

So you've given up trying to explain how your preferred 'no deal' would work and decided to play 'fantasy futures' instead

Like I said before, I don't have to explain how it would work. It would pose some challenges, most of which have been massively exaggerated for obvious reasons.

92% of our economy doesn't involve trading with the EU. Any challenges to trade with the EU impacts both us and the EU. That's two parties, all interested parties, having an interest in resolving any issues as quickly as possible.

But it doesn't matter. You are arguing to avoid short term challenge at the expense of long term benefit. Which is short sighted and foolish.

 

[dingodan]

Surely if that was the case it would strengthen our hand?

You would thinks so. But apparently our hand and TM's hand aren't the same thing.

 

[Mellotron]

Like I said before, I don't have to explain how it would work.

Of course you don't have to explain how it works, but you must acknowledge it makes your argument for No Deal look incredibly flimsy?

 

[fanseagull]

Like I said before, I don't have to explain how it would work. It would pose some challenges, most of which have been massively exaggerated for obvious reasons.

92% of our economy doesn't involve trading with the EU. Any challenges to trade with the EU impacts both us and the EU. That's two parties, all interested parties, having an interest in resolving any issues as quickly as possible.

But it doesn't matter. You are arguing to avoid short term challenge at the expense of long term benefit. Which is short sighted and foolish.

What 'challenges' would it pose do you think?
Shall I tell friends who are likely to lose their jobs as a result of this that they are facing a challenge, but it has been exaggerated and will provide long term benefits for them?
Are you likely to be lose your job but can see a greater long term benefit?

 

[Baldseagull]

I have a prediction if we remain.

In the years and decades to come, responding to the challenges the EU will inevitably face, the EU (commission) will be comprised of ever more authoritarian, protectionist, and "anti workers-rights" (etc) attitudes.

In the meantime the UK will have, at some point during this time, a liberal left leaning government. A government whose hands are tied and who will be unable to formulate the policies you want, and unable to resist policies which you despise.

At which point a lot of you who now want to remain in the EU will be asking what you can do about the policies being forced on us by the EU. The answer will be - nothing.

Then you will call for a refurendum on EU membership, now that "the game has changed" and you are "better informed" about the implications of being ruled over from Brussels.

& you will do it all with a straight face.

Our membership as it stands exempts us from any further political union, without detriment. That is to say, we cannot be forced to accept any further treaties, or treaty changes, and not accepting them would not lose to us any of the benefits we currently enjoy. There are elements that we are signed up to that could bring some changes to Workers rights, but we are not bound to not exceed them, they are minimum requirements. The direction that Farage and the Tory leavers would like us to take workers rights? Lower, and to do that they need us out.

 

[dingodan]

Of course you don't have to explain how it works, but you must acknowledge it makes your argument for No Deal look incredibly flimsy?

I'm not making an argument for No Deal. No deal isn't preferable, a deal (which doesn't undermine actually leaving) is. I'm making an argument for actually leaving. Apparently the EU aren't interested in Brexit with a deal, at least not while they believe they (and remainers) can pressure us into caving in the face of leaving without a deal.

You are scared and want to cave. I'm not, and don't. That's all.

 

[Gwylan]

92% of our economy doesn't involve trading with the EU.

The actual figure is 56% - 44% of our exports are to the EU (53% of our imports are from the EU)

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7851

 

[dingodan]

Our membership as it stands exempts us from any further political union, without detriment. That is to say, we cannot be forced to accept any further treaties, or treaty changes, and not accepting them would not lose to us any of the benefits we currently enjoy. There are elements that we are signed up to that could bring some changes to Workers rights, but we are not bound to not exceed them, they are minimum requirements. The direction that Farage and the Tory leavers would like us to take workers rights? Lower, and to do that they need us out.

We might be exempt from further integration, but we are not exempt from future European Law. Don't confuse those things.

 

[JCL666]

Someone on BBC News this morning revealed that things are already in place for leaving without a deal, but those involved have recieved instruction that they are not to reveal that these things are in place to the public, for political reasons.
.

Well they are talking out of their arses.

I know that a number of projects were spun up less than two months ago to deal with some of the digital elements used in customs and trade. Those projects will not be complete by the end of March.

 

[dingodan]

The actual figure is 56% - 44% of our exports are to the EU (53% of our imports are from the EU)

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7851

92% of our economy.

Not all of our economy relates to import/export (16%, about half of which is with the EU (8%)).

 

[A1X]

We might be exempt from further integration, but we are not exempt from future European Law. Don't confuse those things.

So which European laws that we have seen introduced do you take particular exception to?

 

[JCL666]

92% of our economy doesn't involve trading with the EU.
.

depending on how you cut the numbers..... https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/

 

[Diablo]

So which European laws that we have seen introduced do you take particular exception to?

I take exception to any "European" introduced Law. Our Government ...the one we voted in.. should be the law makers.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Both the Independent and Guardian now reporting that Brexit is unlikely to happen in March but extended possibly to July.