[Politics] Brexit

[Green Cross Code Man]

You tend to be creative in your interpretation of posts that disagree with your perspective. An overwhelming win for Brexit would mean this is not a country I am comfortable living in and I would have to contemplate leaving..... I guess that would be true of many of your notional 10% Remain voters. Hypothetical though... Please don't mangle this message to suit your argument.

Presumably you'd be happy living in the EU though? Germany, France and a multitude of other countries have far higher support for ultra right wing parties.

 

[Gwylan]

Presumably you'd be happy living in the EU though? Germany, France and a multitude of other countries have far higher support for ultra right wing parties.

That's not a real comparison. The British Conservative party is far more right wing than their French, German, Dutch, Italian etc equivalents, all of whom are pro-EU and favour far more public sector investment than their British counterparts. If the Tories were more like the CDU, I'm sure we'd see higher support in this country for far-right parties

 

[cunning fergus]

Interesting these Brexiteers who have derided Remainers who have protested. Saying their wasting their time, should get a job, snowflakes, anti democracy etc etc
Yet two things strike me.

One, they’re now threatening carnage in the streets.
Two, they never bothered getting off their, no doubt big fat lager fed arris’s and made their voices heard when it was obvious it was all going wrong.

They’ve done it to themselves. And unfortunately, us.

Whilst not condoning violence from either side, as it stands there is a side that won a referendum and a side that lost, overturning that democratic decision like it or not will only exacerbate the rancour that exists between the two sides most active supporters. It is a certainty that if Brexit doesnt happen there will be protests from aggrieved leave supporters and violent confrontation will likely result. Thats not meant to be a threat merely a reasonable prediction.

On a more micro level i can forsee some MPs having police protection, more limited exposure with the public and a general breakdown in the civil tone in politics that has existed in this country since WW2. I think some constituencies will be worse than others and some local political structures for Labour and Tories will collapse in on themselves as the leave/remain position will be unbridgable. Where they dont collapse i think an MPs position on Leave/Remain will become avprinary factor in selection, ensuring that Brexit will continue to be the dominant factor in British politics.

I dont think we will see anything like what is happening in France, but i do think there will be other forms of non violent protest. I can imagine boycotts of the TV licence fee and other taxes. It may only take a couple of million to overwhelm the country’s ability to manage non payment.

I maybe wrong but as it is Brexit or no Brexit this country may not be the same again.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

That's not a real comparison. The British Conservative party is far more right wing than their French, German, Dutch, Italian etc equivalents, all of whom are pro-EU and favour far more public sector investment than their British counterparts. If the Tories were more like the CDU, I'm sure we'd see higher support in this country for far-right parties

That may well be the case. But one reason I dislike the EU is that imo, it sometimes provides and encourages extremists to feel justified in their horrible policies, and also promotes growth in a nasty form of nationalism.

What do you think about the growing nationalist threat in the larger EU countries and the eastern EU?

 

[fanseagull]

Presumably you'd be happy living in the EU though? Germany, France and a multitude of other countries have far higher support for ultra right wing parties.

You keep shifting your ground in these exchanges.... I tell you I would be uncomfortable in a country that (notionally) voted by 90% to 10% in favour of leaving the EU and might contemplate leaving the country if that ever happened. As far as I can understand you then make assumptions about where I might be thinking of going and tell me there are other countries in the EU where there is a 'far higher support for ultra wing parties'. I don't really understand your thought process there. Is there a logical connection that I am missing?

 

[WATFORD zero]

Whilst not condoning violence from either side, as it stands there is a side that won a referendum and a side that lost, overturning that democratic decision like it or not will only exacerbate the rancour that exists between the two sides most active supporters. It is a certainty that if Brexit doesnt happen there will be protests from aggrieved leave supporters and violent confrontation will likely result. Thats not meant to be a threat merely a reasonable prediction.

On a more micro level i can forsee some MPs having police protection, more limited exposure with the public and a general breakdown in the civil tone in politics that has existed in this country since WW2. I think some constituencies will be worse than others and some local political structures for Labour and Tories will collapse in on themselves as the leave/remain position will be unbridgable. Where they dont collapse i think an MPs position on Leave/Remain will become avprinary factor in selection, ensuring that Brexit will continue to be the dominant factor in British politics.

I dont think we will see anything like what is happening in France, but i do think there will be other forms of non violent protest. I can imagine boycotts of the TV licence fee and other taxes. It may only take a couple of million to overwhelm the country’s ability to manage non payment.

I maybe wrong but as it is Brexit or no Brexit this country may not be the same again.

I agree with your last line completely, but really can't see any reasonable ways ahead that would get a majority across the country.

Pretty sure TM's deal will get voted down in Parliament and probably wouldn't get a majority across the country.

No deal with no infrastructure would be lucky to last a couple of weeks before reverting to a position similar to the current one. And if it went on longer, how long could business survive on WTO default tariffs. They would hit all agriculture, manufacturing, assembly, processing of goods and food. What are currently tariff free goods would immediately be liable for Cereals & Meat - 45-50%, Processed foods - 25%-35%, Clothes - 12%, Footwear - 10%, Vehicles - 9%, because it could take years agreeing new schedules and quotas with WTOs history of conflict resolution. And the risk to the incumbent political party who does this would be devastating, so it won't happen.

And again, I don't believe it would get a majority across the country.

Now I know you're not a big fan of the EU but what options are there ? (I'm not the greatest fan but see it as a necessary part of being a major economy within Europe in the 21st century, something I want Britain to retain).

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Fvcking Tories brought this nationwide division down on all our heads. It's Thatcher 2.0. ****s.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

You keep shifting your ground in these exchanges.... I tell you I would be uncomfortable in a country that (notionally) voted by 90% to 10% in favour of leaving the EU and might contemplate leaving the country if that ever happened. As far as I can understand you then make assumptions about where I might be thinking of going and tell me there are other countries in the EU where there is a 'far higher support for ultra wing parties'. I don't really understand your thought process there. Is there a logical connection that I am missing?

Not shifting ground. Asked you one thing, asked another poster who answered another question. It's really quite simple. Our country gets painted in a very bad light by many remain backers. Originally, I wondered whether you were bothered by the high level of nationalist voters in most EU countries. There is a growing trend for nationalism.

 

[cunning fergus]

That's not a real comparison. The British Conservative party is far more right wing than their French, German, Dutch, Italian etc equivalents, all of whom are pro-EU and favour far more public sector investment than their British counterparts. If the Tories were more like the CDU, I'm sure we'd see higher support in this country for far-right parties

I can roll with this assessment of the Tories to the extent that it aligns with the tradional notion of right and left wing as determined by the french national assembly (post 1793) and the more contemporary economic view that exists today.

However, that means much of Labour are right wing too, pre Corbyn they removed clause 4 to embrace the markets and privatisation, let us not forget their love-in with the City and lust for PFI.

But then that also means we say the same about the EU with their love of global business and capitalism. When the supporters of remain include the likes of the Rothschilds, Goldman Sachs, George Soros, CBI, IOD etc. you need to understand who’s side you sre on.

In that regard traditionally and economically Brexit is the most left thing this country has done in years.

FACT

 

[fanseagull]

Whilst not condoning violence from either side, as it stands there is a side that won a referendum and a side that lost, overturning that democratic decision like it or not will only exacerbate the rancour that exists between the two sides most active supporters. It is a certainty that if Brexit doesnt happen there will be protests from aggrieved leave supporters and violent confrontation will likely result. Thats not meant to be a threat merely a reasonable prediction.

On a more micro level i can forsee some MPs having police protection, more limited exposure with the public and a general breakdown in the civil tone in politics that has existed in this country since WW2. I think some constituencies will be worse than others and some local political structures for Labour and Tories will collapse in on themselves as the leave/remain position will be unbridgable. Where they dont collapse i think an MPs position on Leave/Remain will become avprinary factor in selection, ensuring that Brexit will continue to be the dominant factor in British politics.

I dont think we will see anything like what is happening in France, but i do think there will be other forms of non violent protest. I can imagine boycotts of the TV licence fee and other taxes. It may only take a couple of million to overwhelm the country’s ability to manage non payment.

I maybe wrong but as it is Brexit or no Brexit this country may not be the same again.

I disagree with most of what you write but it is certainly one of the more reasoned, reflective Brexit supporting perspectives - and I agree with your final statement here....

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

I can roll with this assessment of the Tories to the extent that it aligns with the tradional notion of right and left wing as determined by the french national assembly (post 1793) and the more contemporary economic view that exists today.

However, that means much of Labour are right wing too, pre Corbyn they removed clause 4 to embrace the markets and privatisation, let us not forget their love-in with the City and lust for PFI.

But then that also means we say the same about the EU with their love of global business and capitalism. When the supporters of remain include the likes of the Rothschilds, Goldman Sachs, George Soros, CBI, IOD etc. you need to understand who’s side you sre on.

In that regard traditionally and economically Brexit is the most left thing this country has done in years.

FACT

This.

 

[CHAPPERS]

Fvcking Tories brought this nationwide division down on all our heads. It's Thatcher 2.0. ****s.

Yeah, and they seem to be getting away with it. The Tories have somehow managed to deflect this ****ing mess away from themselves on to 'Remoaners'.

Still ahead in the polls. Corbyn out.

 

[dingodan]

Our leaders were elected. Democracy in action. Or only when it suits you?!

Both the government and the opposition were elected on a manifesto of delivering Brexit.

To prevent Brexit would be an affront to democracy. Don't pretend to care about democracy. There are two choices here, for MPs to honour democracy and carry out the manifesto promises on which they are elected, or for MPs to do what they (and you) want, in spite of the result of the largest democratic process in the history of this country.

You've made your choice, and it isn't democracy.

 

[dingodan]

Of course, it is INCREDIBLY common for elected officials not to carry out all of their manifesto pledges - especially when it becomes clear that in trying to find a workable solution it is found to be impossible, and we accept that as a part of politics.

Are you saying that it's impossible for us to leave the EU?

 

[A1X]

Just on the point about "respecting referendum results" as made by the stuff about the Welsh Assembly earlier, here's the list of current Tory MPs who voted against creating the Welsh Assembly despite a narrow win for setting it up. Some familiar names in here...

[TWEET]1084782727684149250[/TWEET]

 

[cunning fergus]

I agree with your last line completely, but really can't see any reasonable ways ahead that would get a majority across the country.

Pretty sure TM's deal will get voted down in Parliament and probably wouldn't get a majority across the country.

No deal with no infrastructure would be lucky to last a couple of weeks before reverting to a position similar to the current one. And if it went on longer, how long could business survive on WTO default tariffs. They would hit all agriculture, manufacturing, assembly, processing of goods and food. What are currently tariff free goods would immediately be liable for Cereals & Meat - 45-50%, Processed foods - 25%-35%, Clothes - 12%, Footwear - 10%, Vehicles - 9%, because it could take years agreeing new schedules and quotas with WTOs history of conflict resolution. And the risk to the incumbent political party who does this would be devastating, so it won't happen.

And again, I don't believe it would get a majority across the country.

Now I know you're not a big fan of the EU but what options are there ?

Personally i dont think WTO poses the nature of risks you consider it does, albeit i dont think no deal is better than a deal. The issue is, you wont get a good deal unless the EU think no deal is a serious option. May said exactly that a couple of years ago and it was the right play then and it should be now.

That is the problem with a) Parliament, who signalled they would not accept “no deal” and b) Mays deal, as those that understand a) know its not the best deal we could have got. If you was going to buy a car you wouldnt say to the salesman, “im not walking away till i have bought this car”......that is effectively how we approached the deal.

In a no deal scenario i would expect the Govt to pull some economic levers to mitigate any negative effect, say reduce or abolish VAT on some items. We bailed on the banks for £200bn and had trns of £ of QE, no deal would not be catastrophic.

As for trade, if you think no deal is bad for us, in Ireland they will have to turn the lights off. Just another reason why had we negotiated properly we would have a better deal (imo obvs).

 

[dingodan]

You seem to have missed my question from a couple of days ago, so i'll ask again relating to you stating that any disruption from no deal would be short term.

I didn't miss your question, I just can't be bothered with this kind of an argument. We trade under WTO rules already (1/2 exports and 1/3 imports), not all WTO trade involves tariffs (bottled beer as one example), tariffs have to be modest under WTO rules (massive ones are not allowed), we don't need a new process for recording and collecting tariffs (we already do). Not to mention that trade with Europe accounts for approximately 8% of our economy.

We could do with a more efficient system for dealing with the EU and we will find one, we are perfectly capable of solving these issues.

But it is all beside the point. Whether we should carry out the mandate of the vote doesn't depend on whether you can be convinced on these questions or not, so I don't see the point.

 

[ManOfSussex]

6 new primary acts of parliament required to be passed before March 29 for a no deal to happen.

That's on top of 800-1000 new statuary instruments required.
Numerous systems and processes to set up.
Hundreds of International and EU agreements to be replicated.
All the regulatory bodies to be set up, as well as the infrastructural requirements and staffing compliments to function as a country.

All in less than 80 days as of now.

Of course I suppose no deal could happen and I appreciate we've inadvertently received some scraps thrown our way from The EU's no deal contingencies, but it's still a choice between being an international joke of a country, or an being an international pariah. The numbers are still circa 100 ERG/No deal supporting MP's v 500+ who are opposed to no deal.

'3 weeks maximum' is what I've read is being said in Paris and Berlin at how long we'd last if we did no deal, before we come to our senses and beg for a Norwegian arrangement.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Yeah, and they seem to be getting away with it. The Tories have somehow managed to deflect this ****ing mess away from themselves on to 'Remoaners'.

Still ahead in the polls. Corbyn out.

Labour still sitting on their hands offering no opposition.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

6 new primary acts of parliament to required pass before March 29 for a no deal to happen.

That's on top of 800-1000 new statuary instruments required.
Numerous systems and processes to set up.
Hundreds of International and EU agreements to be replicated.
All the regulatory bodies to be set up, as well as the infrastructural requirements and staffing compliments to function as a country.

All in less than 80 days as of now.

Of course I suppose no deal could happen and I appreciate we've inadvertently received some scraps thrown our way from The EU's no deal contingencies, but it's still a choice between being an international joke of a country, or an being an international pariah. The numbers are still circa 100 ERG/No deal supporting MP's v 500+ who are opposed to no deal.

'3 weeks maximum' is what I've read is being said in Paris and Berlin at how long we'd last if we did no deal, before we come to our senses and beg for a Norwegian arrangement.

Have BMW started to beg yet?