[Politics] Brexit

[CHAPPERS]

In her speech Theresa May said this about a no-deal Brexit.

With no deal we would have: no implementation period, no security co-operation, no guarantees for UK citizens overseas, no certainty for businesses and workers here in Stoke and across the UK, and changes to everyday life in Northern Ireland that would put the future of our union at risk.

In his press statement, the DUP leader at Westminster, Nigel Dodds, said May should clarify what she meant. He explained:

The prime minister must explain this comment. What exactly would the government be changing? If this is nothing more than scaremongering, then the prime minister should cease from such foolish talk. Indeed, the Irish prime minister, Leo Varadkar, has said that the Republic of Ireland is not making preparations for a hard border even in the event of no deal being agreed.

Pretty strong words!

 

[ManOfSussex]

Have BMW started to beg yet?

Quite. The same people now saying 'WTO rules', such as Owen Paterson MP, were the same people 2 years ago saying 'German car manufacturers' and the same people who believe whatever he and his like say now, fell for it 2 years ago too.

 

[dingodan]

6 new primary acts of parliament to required pass before March 29 for a no deal to happen.

That's on top of 800-1000 new statuary instruments required.
Numerous systems and processes to set up.
Hundreds of International and EU agreements to be replicated.
All the regulatory bodies to be set up, as well as the infrastructural requirements and staffing compliments to function as a country.

All in less than 80 days as of now.

Of course I suppose no deal could happen and I appreciate we've inadvertently received some scraps thrown our way from The EU's no deal contingencies, but it's still a choice between being an international joke of a country, or an being an international pariah. The numbers are still circa 100 ERG/No deal supporting MP's v 500+ who are opposed to no deal.

'3 weeks maximum' is what I've read is being said in Paris and Berlin at how long we'd last if we did no deal, before we come to our senses and beg for a Norwegian arrangement.

Sounds like wishful thinking from Paris and Berlin. Where did you read that? I did a google and all I got was this thread. Did you make it up?

Someone on BBC News this morning revealed that things are already in place for leaving without a deal, but those involved have recieved instruction that they are not to reveal that these things are in place to the public, for political reasons.

What country have you ever heard of which has sought and achieved it's independance and been considered a "joke" of a country as a result?

We are masively respected around the world, and that is not thanks to the European Union, that's despite it.

We will be a joke of a country if after all this we bottle it and remain.

 

[Gwylan]

I can roll with this assessment of the Tories to the extent that it aligns with the tradional notion of right and left wing as determined by the french national assembly (post 1793) and the more contemporary economic view that exists today.

However, that means much of Labour are right wing too, pre Corbyn they removed clause 4 to embrace the markets and privatisation, let us not forget their love-in with the City and lust for PFI.

But then that also means we say the same about the EU with their love of global business and capitalism. When the supporters of remain include the likes of the Rothschilds, Goldman Sachs, George Soros, CBI, IOD etc. you need to understand who’s side you sre on.

In that regard traditionally and economically Brexit is the most left thing this country has done in years.

FACT

Yes, perhaps I should have said that the UK was more right wing than its political counterparts on mainland Europe. Look at the number of people who describe Corbyn as 'far left' when 50 years ago, he'd be pretty mainstream Labour.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Personally i dont think WTO poses the nature of risks you consider it does, albeit i dont think no deal is better than a deal. The issue is, you wont get a good deal unless the EU think no deal is a serious option. May said exactly that a couple of years ago and it was the right play then and it should be now.

That is the problem with a) Parliament, who signalled they would not accept “no deal” and b) Mays deal, as those that understand a) know its not the best deal we could have got. If you was going to buy a car you wouldnt say to the salesman, “im not walking away till i have bought this car”......that is effectively how we approached the deal.

In a no deal scenario i would expect the Govt to pull some economic levers to mitigate any negative effect, say reduce or abolish VAT on some items. We bailed on the banks for £200bn and had trns of £ of QE, no deal would not be catastrophic.

As for trade, if you think no deal is bad for us, in Ireland they will have to turn the lights off. Just another reason why had we negotiated properly we would have a better deal (imo obvs).

I think we will have to agree to disagree.

I don't think that May particularly signalled that 'no deal' was off the table. I think that it was obvious to all parties that it wasn't a starter in the 2 years we had. You are right that the Government could reduce the economic impact of a 'no deal' short term, but no amount of money would have been able to get the infrastructure in place in 2 years. And we have already had our WTO submissions stopped by over 20 WTO members including Russia and the US. This could take years to resolve leaving us on those default tariffs. I believe negotiating with WTO members as a standalone Britain is far, far tougher than any EU negotiations.

And, this isn't like buying a car where you have the choice of 10s of thousands. Every party knew exactly what options were realistically available to the other parties from the very beginning of negotiations. All of the budgets, trading volumes and figures are all available to every party. I believe it was more narrative than negotiation.

As i said in my earlier post I'm not the greatest fan of the EU but see it as a necessary part of being a major economy within Europe in the 21st century, and achieving economic growth, something I want Britain to retain. Unfortunately, as we have seen from the Austerity years, economic recession only ever seems to effect one group within society

 

[ManOfSussex]

Sounds like wishful thinking from Paris and Berlin. Where did you read that? I did a google and all I got was this thread. Did you make it up?

Someone on BBC News this morning revealed that things are already in place for leaving without a deal, but those involved have recieved instruction that they are not to reveal that these things are in place to the public, for political reasons.

What country have you ever heard of which has sought and achieved it's independance and been considered a "joke" of a country as a result?

We are masively respected around the world, and that is not thanks to the European Union, that's despite it.

We will be a joke of a country if after all this we bottle it and remain.

I've read in The Times, seen it said on Sky News countless times. You can believe what you want though.

So if you genuinely think no deal is sustainable and viable, good for you. I'd genuinely love to be as naive and innocent to this colossal mess as you are - We live in a country where people phone '999' because KFC is closed, not some fantasy world of Jacob Rees-Mogg's childhood where we're all going to get through this by invoking some mythical spirit built on World War 2 and imperialist nostalgia to achieve 'independence' as you see this.

 

[Pavilionaire]

The government talks about a "democratic betrayal" if the result of the Referendum is not delivered, and yet here I sit a Lib Dem supporter, a staunch Remainer. Five years of coalition with the Tories have decimated the Lib Dems, I live in one of the safest Tory seats in the country which means I'm effectively disenfranchised and now I stand to lose my European Union membership which - as someone with a Croatian father - I value dearly.

 

[dingodan]

I've read in The Times, seen it said on Sky News countless times. You can believe what you want though.

So if you genuinely think no deal is sustainable and viable, good for you. I'd genuinely love to be as naive and innocent to this colossal mess as you are - We live in a country where people phone '999' because KFC is closed, not some fantasy world of Jacob Rees-Mogg's childhood where we're all going to get through this by invoking some mythical spirit built on World War 2 and imperialist nostalgia to achieve 'independence' as you see this.

You don't think much of this country do you. Sad.

 

[WATFORD zero]

I didn't miss your question, I just can't be bothered with this kind of an argument. We trade under WTO rules already (1/2 exports and 1/3 imports), not all WTO trade involves tariffs (bottled beer as one example), tariffs have to be modest under WTO rules (massive ones are not allowed), we don't need a new process for recording and collecting tariffs (we already do). Not to mention that trade with Europe accounts for approximately 8% of our economy.

We could do with a more efficient system for dealing with the EU and we will find one, we are perfectly capable of solving these issues.

But it is all beside the point. Whether we should carry out the mandate of the vote doesn't depend on whether you can be convinced on these questions or not, so I don't see the point.

We currently trade under the EU negotiated tariffs and quotas within the WTO. We have submitted some of our own, but there are over 20 members of the WTO who have objected (including Russia and the USA) and these will have to go to arbitration, a process which traditionally takes years under the WTO.

As of 29th March we will, therefor, trade under the following 'modest' WTO defaults (Cereals & Meat - 45-50%, Processed foods - 25%-35%, Clothes - 12%, Footwear - 10%, Vehicles - 9%) with all members of the EU, where trade is tariff free currently and all members of the WTO that we currently use EU schedules for. The EU part alone will be 44% of UK exports and 53% of imports.

You are right in that we have methods of processing imports under WTO rules but these will have to be changed to the default rates and have all quotas (a method of managing volumes) removed. We will then have to put all EU imports through the same processes checks and systems as the rest of the world. (and this includes anything from the rest of the world that comes via the EU in any shape or form - planes, ferries, roads).

74 days to go - It won't happen. That's the point

 

[Mellotron]

Are you saying that it's impossible for us to leave the EU?

Please let me know the last elected government that fulfilled ALL of their manifesto promises. I eagerly await this.

I should've caveated - "impossible without irreparably ****ing up the country for decades to come". Sorry.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Sounds like wishful thinking from Paris and Berlin. Where did you read that? I did a google and all I got was this thread. Did you make it up?

Someone on BBC News this morning revealed that things are already in place for leaving without a deal, but those involved have recieved instruction that they are not to reveal that these things are in place to the public, for political reasons.

What country have you ever heard of which has sought and achieved it's independance and been considered a "joke" of a country as a result?

We are masively respected around the world, and that is not thanks to the European Union, that's despite it.

We will be a joke of a country if after all this we bottle it and remain.

I wonder where they have hidden the car parks, border posts, customs sheds, IT infrastructure and all the staff. I bet it's that Southwick Tunnel again

 

[A1X]

Someone on BBC News this morning revealed that things are already in place for leaving without a deal, but those involved have recieved instruction that they are not to reveal that these things are in place to the public, for political reasons.

Indeed there are many companies who have taken on work for this and had to sign NDAs about what work they're doing. Now why do you think the Government might be keen to avoid people finding out about what happens if they get their policy through the way they want? I have a feeling the answer isn't "because it'd be so awesome people won't be able to contain their excitement" somehow.

I know if I were having to (e.g.) impose rationing on the country I'd want to keep that as quiet as possible for as long as I possibly could.

 

[ManOfSussex]

You don't think much of this country do you. Sad.

I do, that's why I don't want to see it or it's people suffer, nor do I want to risk seeing it break up.

 

[Baldseagull]

Are you saying that it's impossible for us to leave the EU?

Impossible to deliver the exact same benefits out as in, impossible to deliver an extra £350 million a week for public services, impossible to have greater effective sovereignty, impossible to leave without economic disruption, impossible to leave without negatively affecting trade with the EU, impossible to leave the EU and strengthen the UK union, Impossible to leave without affecting the border in Ireland, unless we remain in customs union and single market, which would make it impossible to end freedom of movement of people. These were all said to be possible by Leave campaigners.

Clearly some of the promises will have to be broken in order to maintain another promise, and some are not possible in any version of Brexit, leaving delivering what was described during the campaign is impossible.

 

[A1X]

We are masively respected around the world, and that is not thanks to the European Union, that's despite it.

[TWEET]1084815023795568641[/TWEET]

 

[Baldseagull]

Quite. The same people now saying 'WTO rules', such as Owen Paterson MP, were the same people 2 years ago saying 'German car manufacturers' and the same people who believe whatever he and his like say now, fell for it 2 years ago too.

Boris Johnson told a debate in Wembley stadium on 21 June 2016: “Everyone knows this country receives about a fifth of Germany’s entire car manufacturing output. Do you seriously propose that they are going to be so insane as to allow tariffs to be imposed?”

Now he says a No Deal Brexit is actually what people voted for.

 

[A1X]

Twitter thread on the legal requirements related to an A50 extension as seems to be the current flavour of the month

[TWEET]1084819342229991430[/TWEET]

 

[dingodan]

Indeed there are many companies who have taken on work for this and had to sign NDAs about what work they're doing. Now why do you think the Government might be keen to avoid people finding out about what happens if they get their policy through the way they want? I have a feeling the answer isn't "because it'd be so awesome people won't be able to contain their excitement" somehow.

I know if I were having to (e.g.) impose rationing on the country I'd want to keep that as quiet as possible for as long as I possibly could.

No it's being kept quiet because the realization that no deal wouldn't be a disaster weakens No.10's hand when it comes to securing votes for TM's deal.

 

[A1X]

No it's being kept quiet because the realization that no deal wouldn't be a disaster weakens No.10's hand when it comes to securing votes for TM's deal.

But these NDAs have been in place in some cases for 12-18 months, surely if No Deal was palatable then they would have broadcast the fact as the people they were trying to apply pressure to were the EU who they were desperate to claim they didn't need?

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

No it's being kept quiet because the realization that no deal wouldn't be a disaster weakens No.10's hand when it comes to securing votes for TM's deal.

Surely if that was the case it would strengthen our hand?