[Politics] Brexit

[pb21]

All this by the end of March ?? NO CHANCE !

There is the potential A50 could be extended by a few weeks.

 

[Berty23]

So Parliament votes down May's Deal ..... good many people will say. The problem being that new legislation will be needed for the 'People's Vote' ( why we can't just call it what it is - another referendum - I don't know ! ) - the MPs can't just suggest it at the vote on the current deal. To get draft legislation ready is going to take some time. I'd suggest there's no chance in hell of it being ready this side of Christmas. MPs debate the legislation for the extra referendum in January. It then goes to the HoLs - we're already talking February here before it even hits the statue books. So it passes. Let's say even optimitically it's now mid-Feb. That leaves SIX weeks to arrange a referendum, the campaigning and the vote ( remembering the EC recommends at least six months between legislation being passed and a referendum being held ). So the referendum says we stay. The government now need to draft legislation to revoke A50 - which of course needs to pass the HoCs and the HoLs. All this by the end of March ?? NO CHANCE !

If the deal gets rejected then they can revoke article 50 or ask for extension. They won’t wait until after People’s vote.

 

[lawros left foot]

You should change your name to Inflatus Ovidius Trumpus.

So Parliament votes down May's Deal ..... good many people will say. The problem being that new legislation will be needed for the 'People's Vote' ( why we can't just call it what it is - another referendum - I don't know ! ) - the MPs can't just suggest it at the vote on the current deal. To get draft legislation ready is going to take some time. I'd suggest there's no chance in hell of it being ready this side of Christmas. MPs debate the legislation for the extra referendum in January. It then goes to the HoLs - we're already talking February here before it even hits the statue books. So it passes. Let's say even optimitically it's now mid-Feb. That leaves SIX weeks to arrange a referendum, the campaigning and the vote ( remembering the EC recommends at least six months between legislation being passed and a referendum being held ). So the referendum says we stay. The government now need to draft legislation to revoke A50 - which of course needs to pass the HoCs and the HoLs. All this by the end of March ?? NO CHANCE !

How long does a snap election take to organise? I’m not being clever, I just don’t know the shortest time required.

Maybe, if the MPs didn’t have a 3 week Christmas holiday, to go with their 2 months off in Summer and a week ‘ half term ‘ (I kid you not) in November and Febuary, and actually worked a 5 day week, not 4, they would have time to pass the necessary legislation.

But, I suppose it’s not a once in a lifetime event, or anything.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

There is the potential A50 could be extended by a few weeks.

Yet EU rules state everything must be concluded within 2 years of A50 being activated. An extention can only happen if all 27 remaining members agree. Why would the EU agree to that ? I still say no chance.

 

[lawros left foot]

So, pretty much as we were the morning after the referendum, we are ****ed. 2 and a half years of fighting and bickering and as predicted, there are NO sunny uplands!

And we’re still ****ed

 

[Westdene Seagull]

If the deal gets rejected then they can revoke article 50 or ask for extension. They won’t wait until after People’s vote.

To revoke A50 there would need to be new legislation ..... you can thank Gina Miller for that !

 

[pb21]

Yet EU rules state everything must be concluded within 2 years of A50 being activated. An extention can only happen if all 27 remaining members agree. Why would the EU agree to that ? I still say no chance.

They would agree if they thought it was in their interest. Its in their interest that 'no deal' is avoided and it is in their interest if we were to stay. On that basis I would expect an extension to be agreed.

 

[vegster]

And we’re still ****ed

Mrs May was right about one thing......" Nothing Has Changed! "

 

[Westdene Seagull]

They would agree if they thought it was in their interest. Its in their interest that 'no deal' is avoided and it is in their interest if we were to stay. On that basis I would expect an extension to be agreed.

Even if that were true ( and it sounds very similar to the Brexiteer 'they need us' argument ! ) you still have the small matter that it can't be done without the will of Parliament and legislation.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Yet EU rules state everything must be concluded within 2 years of A50 being activated. An extention can only happen if all 27 remaining members agree. Why would the EU agree to that ? I still say no chance.

I'm afraid that not for the first time on this thread, you are wrong.

You know as well as I do that if senior politicians futures are at stake, it will happen

*edit* See pb21 post above - probably simplest way to do it

 

[beorhthelm]

Yet EU rules state everything must be concluded within 2 years of A50 being activated. An extention can only happen if all 27 remaining members agree. Why would the EU agree to that ? I still say no chance.

because the members would be told to agree, if they indeed they even need to.

 

[Gwylan]

Yet EU rules state everything must be concluded within 2 years of A50 being activated. An extention can only happen if all 27 remaining members agree. Why would the EU agree to that ? I still say no chance.

The EU have already said they would agree an extension for another referendum but not for any other reason.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/24/eu-will-extend-brexit-deadline-second-referendum/

 

[Is it PotG?]

If, after all of this, we have a vote on whether to have another referendum then our position as total laughing stock will compound and our (already small) standing in the Euromire will be even more diminished at the inevitable remain vote.

"Sorry chaps, we changed our mind....please be nice to us, we love you really".

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I see the usual suspects are wetting themselves again after the latest round of projections from those ever-reliable chaps at HMG who predicted we should already have endured a year-long recession, 500,000 more unemployed etc

https://order-order.com/2018/11/28/treasury-modelling-based-off-nonsense-assumptions/

 

[Westdene Seagull]

I'm afraid that not for the first time on this thread, you are wrong.

You know as well as I do that if senior politicians futures are at stake, it will happen

*edit* See pb21 post above - probably simplest way to do it

And see my post above yours. A50 was invoked because of an act of Parliament ..... it can only be revoked with an act of Parliament. That takes time ...... something that is in short supply.

 

[Hampster Gull]

I see the usual white grumpy old Brexitremists men on here are again trying to laugh it all off as scaremongering. We haven’t even left the Eu, two and a half years after the vote (but they told us it would be so simple), this isn’t even a new deal, it’s a transition deal, so at least another 2 years, and probably 4 taking their rules and jurisdiction. And the EU now have are over the barrel on Northern Ireland (they said that too was also meant to be simple) so that the trade deal we strike will be in their favour (despite the deluded Prosecco and car theory).

 

[WATFORD zero]

And see my post above yours. A50 was invoked because of an act of Parliament ..... it can only be revoked with an act of Parliament. That takes time ...... something that is in short supply.

I agree with you about the timescales but believe they will be extended.

I think we both know what way a second vote would go and it is in both partys' interests. Hence, if we get there, it will happen.

Of course Theresa may get her deal through, or get a narrow defeat and come back with a Norway deal, etc etc. But I know I'm talking to a grown up and not Ppf or two profs, so let's be sensible

 

[Baldseagull]

I see the usual suspects are wetting themselves again after the latest round of projections from those ever-reliable chaps at HMG who predicted we should already have endured a year-long recession, 500,000 more unemployed etc

https://order-order.com/2018/11/28/treasury-modelling-based-off-nonsense-assumptions/

Here are some good news Brexit stories posted earlier https://twitter.com/uk_domain_names/status/1067715341424431106?s=19

Enjoy.

 

[beorhthelm]

I think we both know what way a second vote would go and it is in both partys' interests. Hence, if we get there, it will happen.

"know"? we thought we knew which way the original referndum would go. damn risky way to try to avoid brexit imo.

 

[Wrong-Direction]

It's so sad that people still think governments care about them.

Sent from my SM-A310F using Tapatalk