[Politics] Brexit

[brighton fella]

It must be a blessing for Remain to be keeping so much real information away from the people. When I tick that box to Leave I know I have done the best thing for my country. Remain is asking for no change, it is saying we will accept free movement forever, we will accept everything Brussels tells us to do. People who vote for Remain can live with with it, I will have to live with it too, but at least I know I didn't vote for it.

Mate Remain is not asking for no change it is in fact asking for more of a progressive form of change... be it Orwellian change, the masses wont realize whats hit them by the time this takes affect and, by then of course it's too late,
I would not usually wish this form of tyranny on anyone but if there is any sort of justice to come from it ....it is those who had voted for it deserve every last bit of it.. .

 

[cunning fergus]

It most definitely will NOT be the same - even the Leave campaign admits there will be a material economic shock - no one knows how long this will last, but it could easily be lengthy. It will take a VERY long time to renegotiate all the trade deals, and the rest of the EU will almost certainly shove us out when the two year deadline elapses. So, come Summer 2018 we will be out of the EU with no negotiated trade deals. 45% of our exports are to the EU, and all the companies concerned (and hence employees of those companies) will be negatively impacted. Scotland will have another Referendum, vote to leave the UK, and stay in the EU. Who knows what will happen politically after that. There's a good chance the far right of the Tory party will form a government, and then the problems will REALLY begin. Full scale privatisation of the NHS, break-up of the BBC, tax cuts for the rich, repealing most of the labour laws that protect the average Joe....the list goes on. This is the problem - Vote Leave means we run the real risk of being governed by the loony Boris/Gove public school Oxbridge cohort with ZERO understanding of life for 99% of the population. Added to which we will lose our freedom of movement within the EU, and have to accept our lowly position in the world as will befit a nation with 1% of the population. We will be Billy No Mates with no power and no political leverage. We will probably have more control of our immigration, but that will be a very small crumb of comfort. And lawmaking will be controlled by Boris, Gove and their cronies - good luck to anyone who prefers that to the current position!

With your ability to see into the future can you let me know who is going to win the Derby?

I've got long odds on US Army Ranger, but I am starting to be drawn to Humphrey Bogart.........let me know Ta.

 

[Soulman]

thats because the EU is all things to all people. actually, the EU isnt specifically corporatist, its bureacratic and open to lobbying. so any group that can raise a voice can wield large influence, be that companies, NGOs, policy institutes, trade unions special interest groups or anything resumbling a guild. the individual is discarded, there's no room for the views of the people. so i can see how it suits left and right a like even if they have different objectives.

Blimey, you make the EU sound like some sort of friendly social club, instead it is a corrupt club with unelected faceless leaders that costs the UK millions every day.... in return we get told what to do and which countries to prop up.

 

[cunning fergus]

thats because the EU is all things to all people. actually, the EU isnt specifically corporatist, its bureacratic and open to lobbying. so any group that can raise a voice can wield large influence, be that companies, NGOs, policy institutes, trade unions special interest groups or anything resumbling a guild. the individual is discarded, there's no room for the views of the people. so i can see how it suits left and right a like even if they have different objectives.

I think you could make that case under Delors, but since Borroso there has been a much harder corporatist edge to the EU in my view.

Take workers rights, thus is held up as an achievement of the EU and yet these advances have been swept away in many EU countries. In France and Belgium this attack is being renewed, and is with the full support of the EU in order that the eco indies of these countries become more competitive.

This is not an omen that indicates that Corbyn's reform agenda is likely to work is it?

Ergo, it will be more corporatist in outlook, and those voting to remain on the basis that it provides social protection are going to be sorely disappointed.

 

[pastafarian]

Thing is only about 10% - 14% of acts of parliament are directly related to EU legislation with the lower figure directly enacting EU requirements and the remaining 4% being influence by the EU therefore it seems like we do have control of our lawmaking process. So Brexit claims we don't are a complete fallacy and really don't stand up to scrutiny.

Figures are now six years old

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-law-what-proportion-influenced-eu/

Counting the uncountable

It makes little sense to treat major Acts of Parliament such as the 457 page Health and Social Care Act 2012 which reformed the whole NHS the same as, say, three pages of technical regulations on VAT fraud. On the other hand, there's no way to quantify the importance and impact of laws generally.

The House of Commons Library warned that "there is no totally accurate, rational or useful way of calculating the percentage of national laws based on or influenced by the EU."

So no set of figures can give us a good measure of the influence of the EU on law in the UK, though all sides agree it's significant.

15 to 50%
In 2010, the House of Commons library published a comprehensive analysis of the variety of ways this percentage can be calculated. There are difficulties with all measurements, but they concluded "it is possible to justify any measure between 15% and 50% or thereabouts".

The figures depend on which UK law is included in the calculation, and the extent of 'EU influence' that we look at. There is no single interpretation of UK law, it can include: Acts put in place by the UK Parliament; rules and regulations drawn up by Ministers; and regulations produced by the EU which apply here in the UK.

A combination of these interpretations results in the following estimates:

1: Acts put in place by UK Parliament with EU influence — accounts for 10-14%

2: Regulations influenced by or related to the EU — accounts for 9-14%

3. EU regulations and regulations influenced by or related to the EU — accounts for 53%



Mix-ups with the European Parliament

Sometimes a figure of 70% is used — including in February 2014 by Viviane Reding, the Vice-President of the European Commission — but this is actually the percentage of EU laws that the European Parliament (elected representatives of each EU country) and the European Council (representatives of the governments of each EU country) have had an equal say on.

The rest are either decided solely by the Council, or with Parliament giving the Council consent to them being passed. In other words, it's the percentage of EU law that the politicians we elect to the European Parliament have as much say on as our national government.

The official position of the European Parliament is that "a big portion of the laws adopted by the House of Commons and House of Lords actually are EU-laws that are made into national laws by the national parliaments". When we asked for their source, they cited the House of Commons Library research we present here as well as examples from elsewhere in Europe.

Acts, UK regulations and EU regulations — what's the difference?

The first thing to say is that simply counting up the variety of 'EU influenced' UK laws, which vary from Acts to protect against terrorism through to regulations on olive growing, does not provide a conclusive picture.

Acts put in place by our Parliament (10-14%)

The first method considers Acts which have "incorporated a degree of EU influence". This varies from ones which make only a passing reference to EU obligations to ones where the main purpose of the Act is to implement EU obligations. The lower percentage in this case is reached by looking only at those implementing EU laws or measures.

UK regulations (9-14%)

Most EU regulations or orders do not need our Parliament to pass an Act. The form of law where EU influence shows more is in regulations produced by individual departmental Ministers, which tend to look in more detail at a subject area.

The estimates consist of regulations called Statutory Instruments which are made as part of the European Communities Act — which authorises the Government to implement EU law by Acts or forms of regulations — as well as regulations of the same type which relate to the EU.

EU regulations (counted with UK regulations, 53%)

Some EU initiatives do not need to be made into laws at a national level, but are implemented through 'EU regulations'. EU regulations have binding legal force throughout every Member State. This method therefore considers EU regulations alongside the EU-related regulations from method 2.

Aside from problems of definition, these calculations are based on a search of national law databases and the EU's EUR-Lex database and therefore have immediate problems in terms of how robust the search terms were and whether all 'laws' were inputted to the database. Incorporating or excluding EU regulations - some of which relate to things such as olive growing regulations and therefore will not directly impact on the UK - are likely to either overestimate EU influence or underestimate it. Counting these things alone does not tell us enough about where the power lies.

 

[Jim in the West]

With your ability to see into the future can you let me know who is going to win the Derby?

I've got long odds on US Army Ranger, but I am starting to be drawn to Humphrey Bogart.........let me know Ta.

I absolutely guarantee you that my version of the future will be a lot more accurate than the version I was responding to! However, I accept your point that I can't see into the future. But then, neither can the Brexiteers. At the end of the day we all have to weigh up the pros and cons. For me, I just don't think it's worth taking the risk of so many potential downsides, for so little potential upside. We're one of the richest nations on Earth now - why do we want to risk that?

 

[Steve in Japan]

Surely it's the other way around. Given that just about everyone in the country has some level of suspicion/concern/antipathy towards the EU, it is remarkable that more than half the population still appears ready to vote Remain. Apart from the economic arguments, the only logical explanation is that the majority understand that the alternative is NOT a nice cosy GB, but a country governed by a few elite who have zero love of the NHS or any other public institution. The fear of Boris & Gove is greater than the fear of Merkel

Respectfully must disagree. We have been told by the great and good that we shall not have a pot to wee in if we vote out. I believe it is that far more than other factor that drives the Remain vote.

Last time I looked we still get a chance to vote Boris or Gove or Corbyn or whoever in or out if we don't trust them. That's democracy. We can do that in our country.

 

[jaghebby]

Blimey, you make the EU sound like some sort of friendly social club, instead it is a corrupt club with unelected faceless leaders that costs the UK millions every day.... in return we get told what to do and which countries to prop up.

And our won Government doesn't waste even more millions either or make stupid mistakes. For example the Nimrod MR4 was cancelled just as it was about to come into service after we had spent billions on it! Now we are going to purchase the Boeing P8 which is going to cost even more billions of taxpayers hard earned tax receipts. The last Labour government took us into a war to with Iraq on a false premise that they had weapons of mass destruction, and they didn't. Look at that terrible mess and threats because of that, that we are facing now never mind the cost not just in cash terms but the number of lives lost! So being part of a corrupt (sic) club with unelected leaders doesn't seem so bad! Just maybe our government needs some form of restraining influence itself! That's why I say vote to remain!

 

[Jim in the West]

Could write something not dissimilar for when the EU implodes.

I'm quite surprised that you so firmly believe that a country of our size cannot be successfully independent. Is it because of the complexity of the unwinding process? Or because you believe nation states can only survive these days as part of a bigger group?

The unwinding process will be a nightmare. There was a good article in the FT yesterday which set out some of challenges. It would be amazing if we managed it within a decade - more like 15 to 20 years. I'm sure we COULD be successfully independent, but it's a gamble. We're very successful now as part of the largest trading group in the world. Personally I want to my children to have the opportunity to live and work in Europe, and I would like to have the option of retiring to France or Italy. I might not do it, and my children may work their entire lives in the UK....but we'd like the choice. These are simple freedoms which we risk losing very soon.

 

[pastafarian]

The unwinding process will be a nightmare. There was a good article in the FT yesterday which set out some of challenges. It would be amazing if we managed it within a decade - more like 15 to 20 years. I'm sure we COULD be successfully independent, but it's a gamble. We're very successful now as part of the largest trading group in the world. Personally I want to my children to have the opportunity to live and work in Europe, and I would like to have the option of retiring to France or Italy. I might not do it, and my children may work their entire lives in the UK....but we'd like the choice. These are simple freedoms which we risk losing very soon.

Because before we were in The EU

Brits didnt have the opportunity to live in Europe
Brits didnt work in Europe
Brits didnt retire to France or Italy

you will NOT LOSE the opportunity to do any of the above post brexit

 

[Steve in Japan]

The unwinding process will be a nightmare. There was a good article in the FT yesterday which set out some of challenges. It would be amazing if we managed it within a decade - more like 15 to 20 years. I'm sure we COULD be successfully independent, but it's a gamble. We're very successful now as part of the largest trading group in the world. Personally I want to my children to have the opportunity to live and work in Europe, and I would like to have the option of retiring to France or Italy. I might not do it, and my children may work their entire lives in the UK....but we'd like the choice. These are simple freedoms which we risk losing very soon.

Understood. Personally I would say we will do better, quicker than you anticipate but everybody should make their own assessment.

 

[cunning fergus]

I absolutely guarantee you that my version of the future will be a lot more accurate than the version I was responding to! However, I accept your point that I can't see into the future. But then, neither can the Brexiteers. At the end of the day we all have to weigh up the pros and cons. For me, I just don't think it's worth taking the risk of so many potential downsides, for so little potential upside. We're one of the richest nations on Earth now - why do we want to risk that?

There is a lot that isn't, there is no chance of Scotland exiting, they couldn't do it when they had oil prices In their favour and sterling. So that's a prediction that will not come to pass.

The point about the future though is interesting, whilst there is no relatable economic precedent for Outers to point to for guaranteed prosperity, it is absurd for remainers to point to the EU as an economic success.

The euro is an partially constructed disaster that has caused immense hardship for millions of EU citizens, which has caused millions to migrate from these parts of the EU to seek work.

The ECB is on a programme of QE of 80bn euro pm and has negative interest rates.

These are not signs of a positive EU economy and that is before we need to address the problems with how to fix the euro. Further, there is no indication that this will be acceptable to those electorates that will give up fiscal sovereignty, including Germany.

The future is unknown............there is no certainty, however if you take the euro crisis as an example, would we be better in or out?

 

[beorhthelm]

The future is unknown............there is no certainty, however if you take the euro crisis as an example, would we be better in or out?

there is an interesting way of looking at it. to take it further, would remainers vote in on the basis of what they have heard, would they believe how everything will so much more prosperous from the same politicians? i suspect they'd be more sceptical of the claims. staying in has potentially more risk as we will not be able to adjust and mitigate the risks for another generation.

 

[Maldini]

Great to see Cameron on Sky tonight.That's what a dying Prime Minister looks like.

 

[The Rivet]

Great to see Cameron on Sky tonight.That's what a dying Prime Minister looks like.

Cameron was edgy and his body language said something other than his mouth was spouting.

 

[brighton fella]

Surely it's the other way around. Given that just about everyone in the country has some level of suspicion/concern/antipathy towards the EU, it is remarkable that more than half the population still appears ready to vote Remain. Apart from the economic arguments, the only logical explanation is that the majority understand that the alternative is NOT a nice cosy GB, but a country governed by a few elite who have zero love of the NHS or any other public institution. The fear of Boris & Gove is greater than the fear of Merkel

I'm sorry but you can not be serious about Merkel surely

You consider this bitch not to be a threat yet this is a lady who deliberately invited the whole of Syria in to Europe yet knowing full well that most would head for Germany and bring with them some ever lasting consequences.. the bitch done this simply because she has a loathing of her own people. a seething kind of guilt. the women seriously needs to see a shrink.
Anyone capable of committing such madness in my books isn't just a threat to society they need stringing up as well...

 

[Bladders]

Cameron was edgy and his body language said something other than his mouth was spouting.

He knows his fat EU pension is on the line.

He has NO future outside the EU. He's a desperate man


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[pastafarian]

Great to see Cameron on Sky tonight.That's what a dying Prime Minister looks like.

his wife must be more concerned now as well about a brexit.
her poor dad might lose the few hundred thousand quid he gets from the EU to help run the family estate/farm

vested interests?........what vested interests?

 

[Hamilton]

Shock horror. EU nations say they will compete against the UK if it leaves the EU. Hold the front page.


Sent from my iPhone in a non-Calde world :-(

 

[Bladders]

Shock horror. EU nations say they will compete against the UK if it leaves the EU. Hold the front page.


Sent from my iPhone in a non-Calde world :-(

Yes , Junkers and the EU have been making all kinds of threats to scare us.

Do they hate us that much, or just shit scared of what they'll be left with if we leave?


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