[Politics] Brexit

[Kinky Gerbil]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...n-union-theresa-may-david-davis-a8002426.html

Double LOL

 

[Lincoln Imp]

A typical side shift of the liberal lefty Vicky Pollard school of point scoring.

If anyone on here can give me an idea of what on earth this means I would be grateful.

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

Big Gully's comment on predicted food price rises after Brexit: "As a UK consumer I wouldnt worry....." Well, either they will rise or they won't, so we'll see. But there does seem a certain Canute-like denial going on here. Maybe just sometimes Brexiteers might consider saying - "OK, this doesn't sound good, but it's a price worth paying"? As a Remainer I'd actually be quite happy to be proved wrong in my pessimism. For both parties, time will tell but certainly 22% food price inflation doesn't sound great.

 

[mikeyjh]

Makes me giggle how you could even begin to think that our own supply of fruit and vegetables will somehow become unviable after Brexit, if I was a European producer I might be a little concern if they become unable to supply our market at a price that our consumers could bear, but of course you struggle to contemplate that citrus fruits aren't climatically exclusive to Spain, France or any other sunny EU country, there are other countries beyond the EU borders that would be keen to tap into the UK's market if the EU couldn't supply.

As a UK consumer I wouldnt worry but as an EU supplier I would expect some real challenges as UK supermarkets demand those products at prices the UK consumer can bear, otherwise they will look elsewhere.

While we are here it was KMPG when analysing Spains exports of over 2 billion euros of fruit and vegetables of the UK and the internal effects for Spain due to Brexit and concluded that British countries will turn to locally produced goods, so giggle all you want.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2016/11/02/inenglish/1478076634_140712.html

% of fresh fruit exporters by country to the UK (albeit 2012), where in these figures do you expect this fruity Armageddon to come from after Brexit ??

Spain 16%
South Africa 9%
Costa Rica 8%
Columbia 7%
Netherlands 6%
Dom Republic 6%
France 5%
Equador 4%
Brazil 4%
Chile 2%
Turkey 2%
Italy 2%
Germany 2%
Egypt 2%
Belize 2%
Ivory Coast 2%
Cameroon 2%
R.O.W 18%

I'm not sure these figures support quite such a rosy picture as maybe you do. 31% of our fresh fruit and veg is coming from named EU countries, if we extrapolate that in to the ROW figure we end up with 38% being supplied by countries with which we currently have a free trade agreement, that has to be cause for some concern right?

Additionally, the key word here is 'fresh', I'm sure we will continue to receive stuff that has a long shelf life from South America, Southern Africa but what about produce that it's simply impractical to move 000s of miles? I don't think it's an apocalyptical scenario but neither is it one that fills me with great comfort that prices aren't going to rocket....

 

[beorhthelm]

Additionally, the key word here is 'fresh', I'm sure we will continue to receive stuff that has a long shelf life from South America, Southern Africa but what about produce that it's simply impractical to move 000s of miles?

like? they fly in flowers by the ton from Kenya and other African countries, the world is a lot smaller these days. btw, if we have a policy of free trade there will be no tariffs on importing goods from anywhere.

 

[BigGully]

I'm not sure these figures support quite such a rosy picture as maybe you do. 31% of our fresh fruit and veg is coming from named EU countries, if we extrapolate that in to the ROW figure we end up with 38% being supplied by countries with which we currently have a free trade agreement, that has to be cause for some concern right?

Additionally, the key word here is 'fresh', I'm sure we will continue to receive stuff that has a long shelf life from South America, Southern Africa but what about produce that it's simply impractical to move 000s of miles? I don't think it's an apocalyptical scenario but neither is it one that fills me with great comfort that prices aren't going to rocket....

Our reliance on Spain for example for oranges is probably more to do with being long-term EU partners rather than with the quality of the produce and its ability to deliver freshness, I suspect all non EU orange producing countries would facilitate similar practices to deliver comparable produce.

Where we differ is that for me this shows why the EU should continue with tariff free trade with the UK and how ultimately it would effect their own producers more than our own and why if they don't we have to look outwards beyond the EU to find other pathways of supply to ensure price stabilisation and its supply, whilst we are here it seems that after Spain (16%) the next three biggest exporters to the UK, South Africa (9%), Cost Rica (8%) and Columbia (7%) totalling 24% would be likely to supply the same produce as our Spanish suppliers and would be keen to do so.

 

[Simster]

Our reliance on Spain for example for oranges is probably more to do with being long-term EU partners rather than with the quality of the produce and its ability to deliver freshness, I suspect all non EU orange producing countries would facilitate similar practices to deliver comparable produce.

Where we differ is that for me this shows why the EU should continue with tariff free trade with the UK and how ultimately it would effect their own producers more than our own and why if they don't we have to look outwards beyond the EU to find other pathways of supply to ensure price stabilisation and its supply, whilst we are here it seems that after Spain (16%) the next three biggest exporters to the UK, South Africa (9%), Cost Rica (8%) and Columbia (7%) totalling 24% would be likely to supply the same produce as our Spanish suppliers and would be keen to do so.

Spain is a few hundred miles away, the other three orange-providing nations are all thousands of miles away. Do you seriously believe they are going to be able to deliver fresher oranges, and at a price broadly in line with Spanish producers?

 

[CHAPPERS]

Spain is a few hundred miles away, the other three orange-providing nations are all thousands of miles away. Do you seriously believe they are going to be able to deliver fresher oranges, and at a price broadly in line with Spanish producers?

Not to mention the environmental impact.

 

[mikeyjh]

like? they fly in flowers by the ton from Kenya and other African countries, the world is a lot smaller these days. btw, if we have a policy of free trade there will be no tariffs on importing goods from anywhere.

One example would be the tomato. The fact that you mention them being flown is kind of my point - I don't know how much more expensive it will be but it will be very significant & prohibitive.

 

[mikeyjh]

Our reliance on Spain for example for oranges is probably more to do with being long-term EU partners rather than with the quality of the produce and its ability to deliver freshness, I suspect all non EU orange producing countries would facilitate similar practices to deliver comparable produce.

Where we differ is that for me this shows why the EU should continue with tariff free trade with the UK and how ultimately it would effect their own producers more than our own and why if they don't we have to look outwards beyond the EU to find other pathways of supply to ensure price stabilisation and its supply, whilst we are here it seems that after Spain (16%) the next three biggest exporters to the UK, South Africa (9%), Cost Rica (8%) and Columbia (7%) totalling 24% would be likely to supply the same produce as our Spanish suppliers and would be keen to do so.

Got you, missed that point originally, fingers crossed that you are right!

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Spain is a few hundred miles away, the other three orange-providing nations are all thousands of miles away. Do you seriously believe they are going to be able to deliver fresher oranges, and at a price broadly in line with Spanish producers?

On a related matter, these recent words of two LSE economists are worth noting (don't worry, they're facts, not forecasts):

"Countries have always traded the most with their biggest, closest neighbours. This is by far the most reliable fact about international trade and holds true no matter which set of countries, time period or sector (goods, services, ecommerce, foreign investments) is looked at. Given that the EU is within swimming distance of the UK, has a population of more than 500m and a GDP of almost $20bn - double that of China - an equivalent replacement is impossible. EU standards in goods and labour are more acceptable to British people than those in the US, China and India." (I assume that this last sentence implies that the harmonisation of standards and regulations - as important as tariff reduction when negotiating trade deals - will be far more complicated in respect of non-EU countries.)

I was interested to read over the weekend that supermarket products being loaded on a truck on a Monday morning will be on the shelves of a British supermarket before it shuts the following day. Such high-speed, low-cost logistics simply can't be matched by most countries outside the EU.

 

[nicko31]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...n-union-theresa-may-david-davis-a8002426.html

Double LOL

You couldn't make this sh1t up

 

[nicko31]

Spain is a few hundred miles away, the other three orange-providing nations are all thousands of miles away. Do you seriously believe they are going to be able to deliver fresher oranges, and at a price broadly in line with Spanish producers?

Indeed, Spain is 2 days by road, the likes of Costa Rica 3 weeks on a boat, though I heard though that Rees-Mogg was hoping for a good crop from his orangery

 

[jaghebby]

Indeed, Spain is 2 days by road, the likes of Costa Rica 3 weeks on a boat, though I heard though that Rees-Mogg was hoping for a good crop from his orangery

Well don't bananas come from thousands of miles away and don't they put wax on citrus fruit to keep it fresher for longer? So probably Spain could easily replaced by other sources?

 

[BigGully]

Spain is a few hundred miles away, the other three orange-providing nations are all thousands of miles away. Do you seriously believe they are going to be able to deliver fresher oranges, and at a price broadly in line with Spanish producers?

I thought everyone had seen the programme where bananas (30% of total fruits imported to the UK) are transported in some kind of self imposed limbo only to then be ripened in specialised ripening containers once arrived in the UK and then distributed throughout the UK as fresh as if ripened in their own country of origin, so in answer to your question of course if required other far away countries could fill the gap if EU countries couldn't fulfil their current supply.

How else could 68% of fresh fruit imported into the UK come from countries far away from the EU and sit invitingly on the shelves of our shops and sell at affordable prices, one out of three fruits imported by the UK already comes from South America.

http://www.freshplaza.com/article/123774/UK-Vegetable-imports-from-few-selected-countries

 

[Lincoln Imp]

I was interested to read over the weekend that supermarket products being loaded on a truck on a Monday morning will be on the shelves of a British supermarket before it shuts the following day. Such high-speed, low-cost logistics simply can't be matched by most countries outside the EU.

I should have mentioned that the typical truck being loaded would have been in Italy. Sorry.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Yes, but in the morning Sir, I shall be sober. You, you'll still be a Conservative and Unionist Brexit voting Miss Marple Britain Ideologue with a framed polished photo of John Redwood, with a knowing smile on his face, sat on your bedside cabinet. Sir.

The problem people like you have is you have no comprehension, none whatsoever, over the gathering storm there is in this country. Brexit, Austerity...........they don't effect you. As for Universal Credit............I've claimed JSA, ESA and have done voluntary administrative work for The CAB in my time, at various points over the years, to help fellow people at the bottom and know a thing-or-two about it. You?.............Universal Credit hasn't even tickled the ribs yet of what its going to do and once it hits Support Group long term ESA claimants and completely ****s over housing benefit claimants nationwide by exacerbating the housing crisis in this country and then hurts long-term mental and physical health sufferers who claim.......Time bomb. You don't have a clue, let alone care. This is why Sir John Major is warning you, but you don't listen. To paraphrase another man with white hair and a beard - You can't win. Strike them down and Jeremy Corbyn will become more powerful than you can possibly imagine...................

You are mistaken Sir, only family photos (including pics of the hunting dogs obvs) allowed on the bedside cabinet. The Portraits hang in the East wing .. Mogg, Redwood, Cash and of course pride of place above the 17th Century fireplace.. Mrs T.

The problem you have is you know absolutely nothing about my life or my current circumstances but you just assume the tired heartless Tory caricature to justify your own extreme opinions. What grown man wants to see a class war FFS. Obviously no one could possibly have a legitimate alternative view on Brexit or which party should govern. The poor vote Brexit or Tory because they are thick or brainwashed everyone else is uncaring/selfish etc. The Dear Leader and his disciples know there is only one truth, we shall all see the light soon (or else).

Who was talking about Universal Credit? … perhaps you should only post in the Morning's Sir!

 

[beorhthelm]

One example would be the tomato. The fact that you mention them being flown is kind of my point - I don't know how much more expensive it will be but it will be very significant & prohibitive.

and you missd my point, its not prohibitive, produce already comes in from all over the world.

 

[portslade seagull]

and you missd my point, its not prohibitive, produce already comes in from all over the world.

They don't want to take that on board as it doesn't fit their gloomy agenda. You must accept it costs more even if it doesn't

 

[CheeseRolls]

and you missd my point, its not prohibitive, produce already comes in from all over the world.

They don't want to take that on board as it doesn't fit their gloomy agenda. You must accept it costs more even if it doesn't

By any reasonable analysis - a short/medium term price hike is inevitable in these circumstances. Long term a switch away from tariff free EU fresh produce such as tomatoes, would also logically lead to a cost increase. Either we have to grow more in the UK and the only obstacle today is cost, or we need to air freight more in from further afield, or we have to accept EU tariffs.

The logical counter argument is that this would be off set by cheaper goods imported through wider global free trade agreements.

During the winter months in particular we bring in a huge amount of fresh produce from Spain by rail. What proportion of this would we need to switch to non-competitive air freight, to see a steep increase in the charter price of planes and how much spare landing capacity do we have ?

The current figures for Dover show 16,500 trucks per day from the EU passing straight through and 500 non-EU crawling through the port. We can probably get tinned tomatoes through before they perish.

https://www.economist.com/news/brit...-through-seamlessly-those-elsewhere-face-long.

Finally here is one of my personal favourites from my gloomy agenda and one that it is quite difficult to quantify. A proportion of the UKs trade with the rest of the world, arrives here from Asia and elsewhere on mega container ships that dock at Rotterdam and Hamburg. This is an economic decision. Either this trade needs to be rerouted, if this was cost effective they would already be doing this. If we had any such facilities we could develop, I would suggest that you go buy shares now. The alternative is that we have to pay the EU to process these goods on receipt for onward shipment outside of the EU and then check the goods again at the UK border to ascertain that they originated outside the EU and therefore are exempt from EU/UK import tariffs.

Still I expect the German car makers will be along any time soon, to sort this our for us.