[Politics] Brexit

[pb21]

The thing that has confused me about all of this is that Cameron tells us every day that he honestly believes that leaving the EU will be a disaster for our economy, for house prices, for our defence, for international relations and for virtually everything else you can mention, but he was willing to put the country at risk of this disaster, with the only apparent motives to try to sort out a long term internal argument in the Conservative party, or nick votes off UKIP.

If he and Osborne truly believe that leaving will be so cataclysmic, wouldn't their willingness to put the country in way of this perceived jeopardy suggest a lack of suitability for the high offices they hold?

In addition he said he would campaign to leave unless he secured massive reforms in the EU!

 

[pastafarian]

What respect I may have had for you as a poster you have lost.

You have lied.

You will know from the post that I stated words to the following.

£4,300 is a crooked fact because it is not what every family would lose. It is an annualised average spread across all households. The figure still holds, but is presented unfairly.

You will know I said this because you will have extracted my short quote from the full post.

Your behaviour here is disgraceful.

Perhaps an apology is due.


Sent from my iPhone in a non-Calde world :-(

why apologise?
i agree with you,the £4300 claim is not true

 

[Hamilton]

why apologise?
i agree with you,the £4300 claim is not true

You are being deliberately obtuse. You have presented lies.

You have had an opportunity to apologise and you have done the dishonorable thing.

I pity you, because I know inside you will be cursing yourself.


Sent from my iPhone in a non-Calde world :-(

 

[pastafarian]

Nice to see Caroline Lucas, Plaid Cymru’s leader, Leanne Wood, and the Scottish first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, highlight the role of the EU’s social benefits for working people, women and young people yesterday.

Caroline Lucas said in the commons only just over a week ago when she was introducing the Ten Minute Rule Bill - EU Transparency and Accountability how the EU was undemocratic and unaccountable,must have slipped your mind to mention her coming out with that

 

[pastafarian]

You are being deliberately obtuse. You have presented lies.

You have had an opportunity to apologise and you have done the dishonorable thing.

I pity you, because I know inside you will be cursing yourself.


Sent from my iPhone in a non-Calde world :-(

So the 2030 £4300 estimate is true then? make your mind up

 

[Hamilton]

So the 2030 £4300 estimate is true then? make your mind up

I don't need to. You need to accept that other posters will have seen you lie. That is an unacceptable thing to do.


Sent from my iPhone in a non-Calde world :-(

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Caroline Lucas said in the commons only just over a week ago when she was introducing the Ten Minute Rule Bill - EU Transparency and Accountability how the EU was undemocratic and unaccountable,must have slipped your mind to mention her coming out with that

But on balance she thinks it's preferable to stay in...this must have slipped your mind.

 

[5ways]

Is there any chance you lot can argue amongst yourselves first and come to an mutual agreement whether or not the £4300 figure is true or not before posting it again.
I know it’s a massive tool in your argument but you are not helping matters by being divided and contradicting the validity of it .

waits for the first deflect reply, oh yeah…..but why don’t you all agree first on blah blah blah

Good point that Out, or Vote Leave, or Generation Leave or whatever it is, can hardly agree what to order for lunch let alone decided on which basis our economic relationship with the EU will be based. Personally I favour Gove's Albania model. In terms of the £4300 figure if the economy contracts by 6%, which is in the mid-range of economic forecasts, if you divide that by the number of households then by 2030 it will cost the average household £4300. This obviously will vary but it's a way of demonstrating what 6% means in practice for your average family.

So it's true that it provides a rough guide to Brexit self-flagellation.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Outers understand only too well. On the other hand, £150 million net (if that is indeed an accurate figure, which I doubt in this debate) is a bit of a thorn in the remainers' side. We don't actually want a net loss of £150 million. Unless of course, you'd like to put your hand in your pocket to help the rest of us out?

I think I started this little tributary by quoting the Brexit-favouring senior MP upset by the Leave campaign's distortion of how Brexit could help the NHS. Her point was that, by continually quoting the figure of £350m in the context of saving the NHS, the Leave campaign was clearly implying that the country would immediately be £350m better off if it left and was obviously conflating this specific saving with the NHS's need for more money. Both are untrue.

One of the Leave campaign's favourite sleights of hand is to mix and mash gross and net figures. The £350m figure is an example and even the lesser figure - you mention £150m - does not include the returns to the wider economy. Obviously the level of those returns is part of the debate but few people, even on here, deny that they exist.

It's neither here nor there, but I happen to disapprove of George Osborne's technique of taking gloomiest-possible figures and then reducing them to soundbites - "18%!" "£4300!" - so that they resonate with the man on the street. It doesn't help his case. I just wish that more Leave campaigners would criticise the wild excesses of their leaders in the same way. It is good that the Chairman of the Health Select Committee has done so but I doubt too many of the NSC evangelists will be joining her.

 

[beorhthelm]

In terms of the £4300 figure if the economy contracts by 6%, which is in the mid-range of economic forecasts, if you divide that by the number of households then by 2030 it will cost the average household £4300. This obviously will vary but it's a way of demonstrating what 6% means in practice for your average family.

no it doesnt, it portrays a ficition. if applied to today's GDP/household the number would be ~£75k when in fact around a third that. so the figure is inflated by 300% to begin with before even looking at the false assumptions and biased forecasts that go into getting there. in practice, 6% GDP over 15 years means very little to households individually. not as bad as yesterdays analysis though that seems to want us to believe trade and the economy goes into meltdown on 24th June, when the status quo will persist for at least two years. even the Remain camp are questioning Osborne's hype.

 

[Bladders]

The U.K. .....after its left the EU?

 

[Lincoln Imp]

no it doesnt, it portrays a ficition. if applied to today's GDP/household the number would be ~£75k when in fact around a third that. so the figure is inflated by 300% to begin with before even looking at the false assumptions and biased forecasts that go into getting there. in practice, 6% GDP over 15 years means very little to households individually. not as bad as yesterdays analysis though that seems to want us to believe trade and the economy goes into meltdown on 24th June, when the status quo will persist for at least two years. even the Remain camp are questioning Osborne's hype.

And do you question Boris's teabags, bananas and Hitler hypes, Mordaunt's Thurkish veto-fibs and the claim that it's possible to spend an imaginary £350m a week on a heap of different things simultaneously?

 

[beorhthelm]

And do you question Boris's teabags, bananas and Hitler hypes, Mordaunt's Thurkish veto-fibs and the claim that it's possible to spend an imaginary £350m a week on a heap of different things simultaneously?

i dont pay much attention to those lightweight claims (though the Hitler thing was in context not incorrect), and you'll notice i don't keep referring to those issues. unlike the remainers that trot out the claims of Osborne hourly.

 

[Bladders]

Today its Holidays .

Holidays will be more expensive if we leave the EU.

I wonder what tomorrow will bring? I'm going with Pick & Mix will be more expensive if we leave the EU. That will be tomorrows headline.

 

[5ways]

Today its Holidays .

Holidays will be more expensive if we leave the EU.

I wonder what tomorrow will bring? I'm going with Pick & Mix will be more expensive if we leave the EU. That will be tomorrows headline.

Seems to demonstrate that Brexit is a rolling cavalcade of inconvenience and pointless expense.

 

[Bladders]

Seems to demonstrate that Brexit COULD be a rolling cavalcade of inconvenience and pointless expense.

I've corrected it for with the Remain camps most favourite word.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

i dont pay much attention to those lightweight claims (though the Hitler thing was in context not incorrect), and you'll notice i don't keep referring to those issues. unlike the remainers that trot out the claims of Osborne hourly.

You might not pay much attention to them but plenty of people will, which is the Leave campaign's intention. If a government minister suggests that Turkey is about to join the EU, that the UK doesn't have a veto and 80m people could rock up down the road then people will be scared even if the woman is lying through her teeth. Not exaggerating. Lying.

And Hitler? I see you're taking the Jacob Rees-Mogg line that the sober Mr Johnson was drawing a narrow historical parallel between a specific aspect of Hitler's genocidal warmongering and the European Union. Come on! You know perfectly well what he was doing - he was trying to associate the 20th century's most hated tyrant with the EU.

I've said elsewhere that some of the Remain claims look simplistic to me but what are these compared to the Leavers' deliberately drawn visions of millions of murky Muslims on our doorstep as euro-tyrants march across the continent once again? These are nasty, manipulative and untrue and take scaremongering to a new level. Lightweight banter? Not really.

 

[beorhthelm]

You might not pay much attention to them but plenty of people will,

i invite you to take it up with them, i've not really much time for a lot of it. i find the government backed and publicly paid for economic doom-casting a more significant matter that needs to be countered, and will do so.

 

[Bakero]

Sheep, yep! Baa lambs worrying about whether they may lose a few hundred quid. I don't need graphs or charts! Will we lose more than in 2008? Conversely what may we gain?

Why are the remain camp sheep? Taking the tone of conspiracy theorists doesn't strengthen your argument. Interestingly, the sheep slur is often thrown at people who believe what they read in the mainstream media yet the Brexiters are backed and fed information by most of the MSM - The Mail, The Telegraph, The Times, The Sun, The Express.

Cute cop out that means nothing.

Partially agreeing with you means nothing? Why? It's not a black and white battle between good and evil. Being well aware of its flaws, I'm no EU apparatchik. I can, however, see the benefits or remaining.

 

[5ways]

I've corrected it for with the Remain camps most favourite word.

How about

"it is demonstrably probable that Brexit will be a rolling cavalcade of inconvenience and pointless expense based upon all available indicators and informed analysis".