[Politics] Brexit

[larus]

I can guarantee the REMAINERS will totally ignore your post.

Yeah - no surprise there. Be like the EU; ignore it, muddle along and hope it'll work out fine.

 

[Bevendean Hillbilly]

Whilst in prison awaiting sentence Goering noted:

"What we have failed to do by military means we will achieve on our hands and knees begging for mercy"

What he meant is fairly obvious. Germany was a total ruin after 5 years of bombardment and was occupied by the Allies including the hated Bolsheviks. The nation rose again with the Marshall plan as its benefactor but, primarily, by the fact that they were prohibited by international law from arming itself against the Russians. Britain and France were crucified by being forced to maintain a standing army to protect West Germany and the rest of a battered Europe at a cost of billions of pounds. Nobody else was capable of providing meaningful military muscle to this effort. The net result was a HUGE cost borne by the Brits to defend everyone else. They were all allowed to grow and prosper in peace whilst WE spent the 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s 80s and 90s expending 4% of our GDP on tanks, planes nuclear missiles and submarines and receiving nothing from our "friends" in recompense.

It exhausted us. In the 70s, for example, our economy was in the toilet and we carried on wasting the money that would have rescued our industrial base on chieftain tanks and heavy artillery.

Europe can **** itself as far as I'm concerned. We've run ourselves into the ground whilst Pedrinho and Gunther sat around drinking coffee and smoking disgusting fags.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Germany control Europe. They tried in WW2 so as that didn't work they're now doing it by political means. Look at Brussels, German dominated. Anglia Merkel wants total control and politicians like Daventry Cameron do her bidding.

Margaret Thatcher nails it with this and shame she's not around as she'd knock Merkel out.

Hope it works.

Don't know to embed videos.

[tweet]735080930902200320[/tweet]

The politics of envy

 

[jgmcdee]

It's all about the EURO really. Latest report from the IMF has been 'leaked'. They're at loggerheads with Germnay over debt relief (which won't be allowed in Germany as it's unconstitutional), and Greece can't be saved unless it gets debt relief.

So, all you Remainers, please explain how this gets resolved, as the IMF won't sign up for any more bail-out unless there's debt relief. Eventually, Greece will have to leave the EURO, then the markets will look elsewhere, as the 'illusion' of permanency for the EURO will be smashed, so other countries with unsustainable debt (i..e Italy) will be in the firing line. Once the EURO goes, I fear it could go quick and it will be messy. The only solution is Fiscal Union, and that ain't gonna happen.

My guess on how this resolves, and it is only a guess, is that there will be some combination of a reduction in interest rates on the debt and a moratorium on repayments. It's also possible that the debt could be repackaged and sold, although that would probably be the special Greece bailout fund part rather than the EFSF part.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Aren't the billionaire press barons part of the establishment?

I fully understand people's legitimate concerns re. immigration but the constant drip drip drip of anti-immigrant propaganda skews the debate.

Yes but the mainstream newspapers are pretty evenly divided on Brexit and titles owned by the same proprietor have differing positions. Sun, Daily Mail, Express pro Brexit ... Guardian, Mirror, Sunday Mail, FT pro Remain the Times is currently neutral likely to go for Remain. Even the Telegraph is apparently on the fence. Even if they were all for Brexit it still would be insignificant compared to Remain's establishment credentials.

http://www.politico.eu/blogs/spence...tands-on-brexit-2016-june-newspaper-best-bet/

Immigration is supposedly Leave's trump card as the economy is supposedly Remain's so no surprise they focus on this. By the way I don't remember remain supporters condemning their side when they were banging on about immigrant camps in Calais moving to Kent if we dared vote for Brexit.

Perhaps [MENTION=12947]Lincoln Imp[/MENTION] condemned this frightful scaremongering involving muslims and others bringing fearful changes to the communities we live in.

 

[GT49er]

Germany control Europe. They tried in WW2 so as that didn't work they're now doing it by political means. Look at Brussels, German dominated. Anglia Merkel wants total control and politicians like Daventry Cameron do her bidding.

Margaret Thatcher nails it with this and shame she's not around as she'd knock Merkel out.

Is that the Margaret Thatcher who charged in flailing her handbag to battle for Britain and sort out the EU - and then meekly did as she was told and signed the Single European Act?

 

[Two Professors]

That explains why the germans are desperate to keep us in the EU-they can't re-finance Greece's debt so want us to go bankrupt doing it.

 

[Two Professors]

Wish Merkel would use her real married name (Sauer),instead of dishonestly using the previous one.The hours of amusement finding pictures of the sour kraut would be great.Got about as much chance of that as her admitting her role as a communist propaganda official in the East German government!(Which she was)

 

[Bakero]

It's all about the EURO really. Latest report from the IMF has been 'leaked'. They're at loggerheads with Germnay over debt relief (which won't be allowed in Germany as it's unconstitutional), and Greece can't be saved unless it gets debt relief.

So, all you Remainers, please explain how this gets resolved, as the IMF won't sign up for any more bail-out unless there's debt relief. Eventually, Greece will have to leave the EURO, then the markets will look elsewhere, as the 'illusion' of permanency for the EURO will be smashed, so other countries with unsustainable debt (i..e Italy) will be in the firing line. Once the EURO goes, I fear it could go quick and it will be messy. The only solution is Fiscal Union, and that ain't gonna happen.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/23/markets-welcome-greek-austerity-vote-as-creditors-prepare-to-unl/

Greece needs “unconditional” debt relief if the country is to get its finances back under control and return to fiscal health, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.


A debt sustainability analysis (DSA) released by the Fund yesterday described additional cuts faced by Athens as “daunting” as it warned that “ambitious” targets agreed with the country’s creditors would be hard to achieve.


The analysis, parts of which have already leaked, underscores key differences between the IMF and creditors including Germany over the issue of debt relief ahead of a eurozone finance ministers meeting on Tuesday.


The IMF warned that “low-hanging fruit” in Greece had been “exhausted”.


Providing an “upfront unconditional component” to debt relief was “critical” and would send a “strong and credible signal to markets about the commitment of official creditors to ensuring debt sustainability,” it added.


The Fund has called for a moratorium on debt payments until 2040. Such a move “in itself could contribute to lowering market financing costs” and would “help garner more ownership for reforms,” it said.


Greece currently has a primary surplus target of 0.5pc of GDP this year, climbing to 1.75pc in 2017 and 3.5pc in 2018, which it is expected to maintain for 10 years.


The IMF noted that only a few countries had ever managed a 3.5pc primary budget surplus for more than a decade, and none that had managed to so after suffering deep and protracted recessions.


“In view of this, staff believe that the DSA should be based on a primary surplus over the long run of no more than 1.5pc of GDP,” it said.


“This target would in staff’s view be within the realm of what is plausible.”


Meaningful debt relief as a condition for the IMF's continued participation in Greece's bail-out programme.


It said it “understands and supports” the EU view that relief should be contingent on implementing reforms.


“However, debt relief conditional on policy implementation should not extend beyond the program period [of 2018],” it said, referring to the current three year programme.


Greek stocks rose and government bond yields fell yesterday after Athens approved a series of austerity measures that put it on course to unlock €11bn in fresh bail-out loans.


Yields on benchmark 10-year government debt fell by as much as 25 basis points to a six-month low of 7.2124pc as hopes grew that Greece would secure its next loan tranche today at a meeting of eurozone finance ministers.


Bid yields on two-year bonds dropped almost 150 basis points – or 1.5 percentage points, to 8.14pc. Policymakers are widely expected to agree a deal at a Eurogroup meeting in Brussels that will release fresh cash to prevent a debt default this summer.


The country needs just under €4bn to clear arrears, while a further €7.2bn is required to cover the country’s debt service costs to November, including a €2.3bn payment to the European Central Bank in July.


The Athens stock exchange rose by as much as 1.9pc yesterday, while Greek bank shares climbed 5.19pc, following a 5.6pc rise last Friday on hopes that a deal could be reached this week.


A separate survey of eurozone services and manufacturing activity showed growth fell to a 16-month low in May. Markit’s composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) edged down to 52.9, from 53 in April.


Any reading above 50 signals growth.


Markit said the flash reading indicated that the bloc was growing at a quarterly pace of 0.3pc, which represents a slowdown from the 0.5pc expansion in the first three months of the year. Stronger readings in France and Germany also suggested smaller countries in the 19-nation bloc were struggling.

It's been clear from the start that Greece needs debt relief. Without it they're condemned to eternal austerity, constantly struggling to keep up with interest payments.

The net-importing Euro zone countries were arguably screwed from the start by the ECB forcing all EZ countries to borrow from private banks. This forces them to repay the debt in foreign currency, thus those with a trade deficit have a problem. Greece was the weak link in a chain that was always going to break.

 

[East Preston Gull]

If any body is interested. For the last 5 wks I have conducted my own referendum poll when I work on building sites and clients houses. I generally work in high end houses. The E U referendum is a big talking point and from my discussions the results are......
Brexit -182
Remain - 12
Not sure - 7


Sent from my E6653 using Tapatalk

 

[Trufflehound]

Wish Merkel would use her real married name (Sauer),instead of dishonestly using the previous one.

My wife didn't take my name when we got married. Is she being dishonest too?

What an oddly sexist remark.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

It's all about the EURO really. Latest report from the IMF has been 'leaked'. They're at loggerheads with Germnay over debt relief (which won't be allowed in Germany as it's unconstitutional), and Greece can't be saved unless it gets debt relief.

So, all you Remainers, please explain how this gets resolved, as the IMF won't sign up for any more bail-out unless there's debt relief. Eventually, Greece will have to leave the EURO, then the markets will look elsewhere, as the 'illusion' of permanency for the EURO will be smashed, so other countries with unsustainable debt (i..e Italy) will be in the firing line. Once the EURO goes, I fear it could go quick and it will be messy. The only solution is Fiscal Union, and that ain't gonna happen.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/23/markets-welcome-greek-austerity-vote-as-creditors-prepare-to-unl/

Greece needs “unconditional” debt relief if the country is to get its finances back under control and return to fiscal health, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.


A debt sustainability analysis (DSA) released by the Fund yesterday described additional cuts faced by Athens as “daunting” as it warned that “ambitious” targets agreed with the country’s creditors would be hard to achieve.


The analysis, parts of which have already leaked, underscores key differences between the IMF and creditors including Germany over the issue of debt relief ahead of a eurozone finance ministers meeting on Tuesday.


The IMF warned that “low-hanging fruit” in Greece had been “exhausted”.


Providing an “upfront unconditional component” to debt relief was “critical” and would send a “strong and credible signal to markets about the commitment of official creditors to ensuring debt sustainability,” it added.


The Fund has called for a moratorium on debt payments until 2040. Such a move “in itself could contribute to lowering market financing costs” and would “help garner more ownership for reforms,” it said.


Greece currently has a primary surplus target of 0.5pc of GDP this year, climbing to 1.75pc in 2017 and 3.5pc in 2018, which it is expected to maintain for 10 years.


The IMF noted that only a few countries had ever managed a 3.5pc primary budget surplus for more than a decade, and none that had managed to so after suffering deep and protracted recessions.


“In view of this, staff believe that the DSA should be based on a primary surplus over the long run of no more than 1.5pc of GDP,” it said.


“This target would in staff’s view be within the realm of what is plausible.”


Meaningful debt relief as a condition for the IMF's continued participation in Greece's bail-out programme.


It said it “understands and supports” the EU view that relief should be contingent on implementing reforms.


“However, debt relief conditional on policy implementation should not extend beyond the program period [of 2018],” it said, referring to the current three year programme.


Greek stocks rose and government bond yields fell yesterday after Athens approved a series of austerity measures that put it on course to unlock €11bn in fresh bail-out loans.


Yields on benchmark 10-year government debt fell by as much as 25 basis points to a six-month low of 7.2124pc as hopes grew that Greece would secure its next loan tranche today at a meeting of eurozone finance ministers.


Bid yields on two-year bonds dropped almost 150 basis points – or 1.5 percentage points, to 8.14pc. Policymakers are widely expected to agree a deal at a Eurogroup meeting in Brussels that will release fresh cash to prevent a debt default this summer.


The country needs just under €4bn to clear arrears, while a further €7.2bn is required to cover the country’s debt service costs to November, including a €2.3bn payment to the European Central Bank in July.


The Athens stock exchange rose by as much as 1.9pc yesterday, while Greek bank shares climbed 5.19pc, following a 5.6pc rise last Friday on hopes that a deal could be reached this week.


A separate survey of eurozone services and manufacturing activity showed growth fell to a 16-month low in May. Markit’s composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) edged down to 52.9, from 53 in April.


Any reading above 50 signals growth.


Markit said the flash reading indicated that the bloc was growing at a quarterly pace of 0.3pc, which represents a slowdown from the 0.5pc expansion in the first three months of the year. Stronger readings in France and Germany also suggested smaller countries in the 19-nation bloc were struggling.

Greece will seemingly need debt relief and the Telegraph article reflects that. You announce that Germany will in no circumstances grant such relief and your subsequent points/questions are based on that absolute. HT might know more than I do but consider the report below. It suggests that the situation within Germany and the ECB is more fluid than claimed.

May 7, 2016

German Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel said that Greece’s debt burden needed to be reduced, signaling a clash inside the German government as key decisions loom for Athens’s creditors.
Mr Gabriel... said that the eurozone’s finance ministers must find a way to help Greece break out of its “vicious circle”..

“Everyone knows that this debt relief will have to come at some point. It makes no sense to shirk from that time and time again,” Mr. Gabriel said in comments emailed to Reuters news agency and confirmed by a spokesman for the Social Democrats.

Mr Gabriel’s comments go against German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble’s refusal to countenance large-scale debt relief for Athens. Mr. Schäuble has previously rejected suggestions that debt forgiveness would solve Greece’s problems, insisting rather that Athens takes action to boost competitiveness and reform its administration.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

I can guarantee the REMAINERS will totally ignore your post.

Another prediction gone south.

(Incidentally, why is the IMF suddenly worth quoting? Last time I read a Brexit reference to it on here it was a grubby little organisation composed of Cameron's chums who would do anything to cover their own back. Very confusing.)

 

[Gwylan]

My wife didn't take my name when we got married. Is she being dishonest too?

What an oddly sexist remark.

Indeed. Just off the top of my head I can think of several British female politicians who don't use their married name: Harriet Harman, Yvette Cooper, Theresa Villiers, Priti Patel, Rachel Reeves ... I'm sure there are many more. Are they dishonest too?

I don't know what's more bizarre, the idea that a religious conservative like Merkel is some secret communist stooge or that women who don't take their husband's name are dishonest

 

[GT49er]

Indeed. Just off the top of my head I can think of several British female politicians who don't use their married name: Harriet Harman, Yvette Cooper, Theresa Villiers, Priti Patel, Rachel Reeves ... I'm sure there are many more. Are they dishonest too?

Well, they are politicians .........................................

 

[Two Professors]

My wife didn't take my name when we got married. Is she being dishonest too?

What an oddly sexist remark.

I did not mention your wife-what an oddly over-sensitive reply to my remark.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

If any body is interested. For the last 5 wks I have conducted my own referendum poll when I work on building sites and clients houses. I generally work in high end houses. The E U referendum is a big talking point and from my discussions the results are......
Brexit -182
Remain - 12
Not sure - 7


Sent from my E6653 using Tapatalk

Everyone I know is voting Brexit. Think everyone has just about had enough of the EU now.

 

[Boy Blue]

Is that the Margaret Thatcher who charged in flailing her handbag to battle for Britain and sort out the EU - and then meekly did as she was told and signed the Single European Act?

The same woman who got our £7 billion rebate only for the war criminal Blair to give away.

 

[Two Professors]

Indeed. Just off the top of my head I can think of several British female politicians who don't use their married name: Harriet Harman, Yvette Cooper, Theresa Villiers, Priti Patel, Rachel Reeves ... I'm sure there are many more. Are they dishonest too?

I don't know what's more bizarre, the idea that a religious conservative like Merkel is some secret communist stooge or that women who don't take their husband's name are dishonest

You don't believe she was a communist stooge?Shows how very little European political history you know!And again,I did not mention the other people you are on about-a bit over-sensitive about the sour kraut?

 

[Trufflehound]

I did not mention your wife-what an oddly over-sensitive reply to my remark.

Your remark implied directly that a woman was being dishonest by not taking her husband's name after marriage.

I get it that you don't like Merkel. But using sexism to score political points is a tad bizarre, don't you think?