[Politics] Brexit

[JC Footy Genius]

I see that the treasury today has admitted that they were totally wrong about the financial crisis and Brexit.

Andy Haldane, the Bank of England’s chief economist, said there was a “disconnect” between political warnings about Brexit and the “remarkably placid” state of the markets, adding that the worst predictions may turn out to be “just scare stories”.

When it was put to him that the Bank of England had forecast a “hurricane” after the Brexit vote which had not materialised, Mr Haldane replied: “It’s true, and again fair cop.”

He said: “We had foreseen a sharper slowdown in the economy than has happened, in common with almost every other mainstream macro forecaster. Why has that been the case? We need look no further than the behaviour of the British consumer, the British housing market.

“If you look at how the consumer performed during the course of the last year it’s almost as though the referendum had not taken place. In terms of the real things like pay and jobs not very much happened during the course of last year. It’s pretty much business as usual. The spending power in people’s pockets was not materially dented.”

He said that people were still likely to see “something of a squeeze” on their spending power this year because the falling value of the pound would lead to rising prices. However, he added that it was not “inevitable”.

He said: “Right now there is a very interesting disconnect between what we read in the papers about the degree of political and policy uncertainty, which by any historical metric is at high levels, and what we have seen from the economy and financial markets, which have actually been remarkably placid. That disconnect cannot last forever. There will need to be a reconciliation between the two ... Maybe some of the scarier stories politically will be seen to be just that – scare stories. ”



As you Remainers have continually said, the experts were predicting doom and gloom. We Brexiters have said there may be some effect but nothings really happened. Now, even the Remainers 'cheerleaders' are admitting they haven't got a frigging clue. So, it's about time you stopped saying the world will end.

"The only function of economic forecasting," JK Galbraith once said, "is to make astrology look respectable."

With disarming honesty, the Bank of England's chief economist, Andrew Haldane, has admitted that criticisms that economic forecasts had been wrong before the financial crisis and wrong about the immediate impact of a Brexit vote were a "fair cop".

The profession, he said, was facing a crisis of confidence.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38528544

Almost feel sorry for all those hoodwinked by their scaremongering ... 'experts' indeed.

 

[Biscuit]

Tony Blair said Saddam had WMDs. He was right........................




..............................Oh.

He was misinformed

He's right about May. Bloody woeful Prime Minister at a time where we need real leadership. Corbyn would, inexplicably, be worse IMO. Really scary times for this country at the moment.

 

[cunning fergus]

not a fact though is it, supporters of free markets are liberals. original Tories were opposed to free market reforms as they broke the hold of the aristocracy over wealth, i pull you up on such narrow use of the appellation as free markets have done far more to elevate people from poverty and enhance social mobility than other economic systems. socialism has its merits, if you want everyone to have just enough and no more, with a lower threshold for poverty. just saying.

That's fair, however classical liberalism of (say) Adam Smith who supported free trade was no different from the long held established Tory view on free trade. The ideological difference between Tories and liberals is not in trade.

Since the liberals were in power though (ww1) they have rowed back on what free trade means, they are certainly more interventionist than they were, their support for pay restraint of bankers is just one example.

They are not interventionist however in the labour market, although I think Vince Cable may recently have commented on the need for border control, shock horror.

I accept their benefits of capitalism, however unfettered lassiez faire free markets have historically had negative consequences for the poor, the credit crisis in the U.K. of 2008 is proof of that.

 

[GT49er]

He was misinformed

Bollox. He knew alright.

 

[cunning fergus]

The EU isn't a free market though is it, that is why so many Tory types want out.

The EU is a single market, the EU and the single market are indivisible......it is free for those who are participating within it.

https://europa.eu/european-union/topics/single-market_en

It's why "soft" Brexit is effectively membership of the EU........keep up.

 

[Biscuit]

Bollox. He knew alright.

You, and many others may believe that to be the case.

I, and many others, believe Theresa May is a weak PM. This is also the opinion of a former Prime Minister who happened to win three General Elections. WMD's or not, his opinion is interesting and worth taking note of.

 

[pb21]

The EU is a single market, the EU and the single market are indivisible......it is free for those who are participating within it.

https://europa.eu/european-union/topics/single-market_en

It's why "soft" Brexit is effectively membership of the EU........keep up.

Yes, but it's not a free market, there is tons of regulation and taxation etc. hence why Tory types want out.

 

[Buzzer]

You are totally clueless. Utterly.
A currency can not be OVER VALUED or UNDER VALUED. It's an utterly meaningless term. A term you have grabbed to try and sound like you know what you are talking about. A currency is worth EXACTLY what it is worth at the time and precisely reflects the confidence in a country's economy. Which is exactly the reason the value of sterling has dropped.

Before you spout off that others don't get it, check your facts.

That's simply not true. Take a look at the links below and you'll see that the concept of over and under valued currencies is commonplace. That's the FT and Bloomberg which are the industry bibles together with the Independent and Deutsche Bank, one of the largest in the world who are all opining on Sterling's over-valuation.

It looks likely that the pound was, and remains, overvalued and all that Brexit has done is brought about some much needed re-positioning of Sterling and if that follows then it's another reason to cheer on Brexit.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...nk-s-five-reasons-why-the-pound-is-overvalued

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...erling-is-good-news-for-britain-a7353846.html

https://www.ft.com/content/ec6bef86-1653-11e4-8210-00144feabdc0

 

[studio150]

Maybe it's a little complicated for you. I'm not saying that the financial markets haven't had a hissy fit and reduced the value of sterling (which BTW, was widely accepted as being OVER-VALUED), but, as it's quite clear to any half-intelligent person, there are many factors which impact the price of fuel. The individual strength of the dollar and that of sterling (the dollar has strengthened - got it?) and then the price of a barrel of oil.

What you Reaminers can't seem to understand (shame, as it's really not complicated), is that Sterling was over-valued and a correction would have happened at some time. As I've posted before, Sterling is MARGINALLY below it's average value of the last 8 year or so. Itt;s been as high as 1.52 (mid 2007) and as low as 1.02 (end 2008) and is now fluctuating between 1.7-1.9, which may be 8-10 cents below it's 'long-term' average.

Wow - the world is coming to an end. Shall I call your mum for you?

Waffle waffle and in an exam an F as you failed to answer a straight forward question.

It shouldn't be that difficult but maybe it is for you.

 

[GT49er]

You, and many others may believe that to be the case.

I, and many others, believe Theresa May is a weak PM. This is also the opinion of a former Prime Minister who happened to win three General Elections. WMD's or not, his opinion is interesting and worth taking note of.

Ah yes, the opinion of an avid Europhile and remainer criticising the person who is overseeing our removal from the EU. Of course, anything the PM does in terms of leaving the failed EU is anathema to him.
Pretty much as valid as the former ambassador to the EU, a man desperate to remain in the EU, describes the moves to leave as 'muddled thinking'.
'Axe to grind' sounds more like it.

 

[pb21]

Ouch!

 

[The Clamp]

That's simply not true. Take a look at the links below and you'll see that the concept of over and under valued currencies is commonplace. That's the FT and Bloomberg which are the industry bibles together with the Independent and Deutsche Bank, one of the largest in the world who are all opining on Sterling's over-valuation.

A common misconception.

 

[Buzzer]

A common misconception.

Excuse my bewilderment but are you saying that the combined expertise of the FT, Bloomberg, IMF (who are quoted) and Deutsche Bank are all working under a misconception that currency exchanges aren't always perfectly set?

 

[beorhthelm]

A common misconception.

there's an awful lot of time spent on and money made from that misconception. or possibly your view is incorrect?

 

[Biscuit]

BrExit discussion, speculation etc... (merged threads)

Ah yes, the opinion of an avid Europhile and remainer criticising the person who is overseeing our removal from the EU. Of course, anything the PM does in terms of leaving the failed EU is anathema to him.
Pretty much as valid as the former ambassador to the EU, a man desperate to remain in the EU, describes the moves to leave as 'muddled thinking'.
'Axe to grind' sounds more like it.

Oh come on it isn't as simple as that. The majority of remainers I know have accepted the result and just want to get the best deal we can now. Whatever side of the debate you have accept we are going to leave and just hope that whatever we negotiate it's in our countries best interest. May is being criticised because she is performing badly. Simple as that. Friday business on Radio 4 last week absolutely tore her to pieces. She's weak, we know it, she knows it, and worst of all Europe knows it.

 

[Soulman]

Sounds about right

"half asleep" eh..... more awake than you on a good day Nibble.
Here is the re port I heard early this morning while you were probably fast asleep.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38528544

 

[Soulman]

You, and many others may believe that to be the case.

I, and many others, believe Theresa May is a weak PM. This is also the opinion of a former Prime Minister who happened to win three General Elections. WMD's or not, his opinion is interesting and worth taking note of.

So you are in favour of respecting an opinion from a war criminal who completely ruined this country and sold it down the river. Priceless.

 

[The Clamp]

"half asleep" eh..... more awake than you on a good day Nibble.
Here is the re port I heard early this morning while you were probably fast asleep.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38528544

eh? Yet again, gibberish.

 

[The Clamp]

So you are in favour of respecting an opinion from a war criminal who completely ruined this country and sold it down the river. Priceless.

How does it make Blair incorrect? I'm not saying he is right but you discredit such figures at your peril. Many have sway. Blair held the highest seat in the land for three consecutive terms, he transformed the landscape of the UK, he sent our country to war. Agree or not, to deny his experience and influence is plain ignorance.

 

[Soulman]

How does it make Blair incorrect? I'm not saying he is right but you discredit such figures at your peril. Many have sway. Blair held the highest seat in the land for three consecutive terms, he transformed the landscape of the UK, he sent our country to war. Agree or not, to deny his experience and influence is plain ignorance.

I do not want to take advice from someone I have no respect for. His morals count him out in my eyes. You take his opinion if you want.