[Politics] Brexit – what will happen?

[Triggaaar]

They did and we ignored them.

We? Isn't there a department within the EU that would hear the French complaints and make the rules for the fishing? There were rules, and the British boats were fishing within them when they were attacked.

 

[Dick Head]

The EU are desperate for the UK to stay. Firstly we contribute a significant slice of the budget and secondly, countries leaving the EU diminishes the whole construct and certainly opens the door for others to potentially follow the UK out of the exit.

Secondly, if we leave without a deal it puts at risk the 39 billion Euro settlement and the EU deperately needs the first traunche of that money pretty much immediately to balance next year's budget.

If it looks like we may leave without a deal, the smart move for the EU would be to offer enhanced terms that could get through the UK Parliament, but I doubt if there exists either the political will or the legislative time for that to happen. So it is out we go without a deal and see if the sky falls in on our heads...

How about if they offered us the deal that Cameron took to them in the first place? Whatever that was.

 

[Baldseagull]

Punishment for what? I doubt the EU gives much of a stuff if we leave or stay, so why would there be any comeback? It – like the rest of the world – just wants an end to the whole sorry affair. When the whole thing gets binned, life will carry on and it won't be in their interests to 'punish' a member state for anything.

I do wonder what people will talk about after March, or whenever the decision to remain is taken. It certainly seems to consume an awful lot of people!

Don't worry about losing out on Brexit discussions after March, if the deal goes through then we will be talking out a trade deal for about 5 years and trying to invent magic border controls without a border for Northern Ireland. If we go out without a deal or transition period, we will be trying to join EFTA, and once in trying to figure out our next move, and if we have another referendum and remain wins, everyones favourite Palace Fan, Nigel Farage will be returning to Brussels to insult everyone and go out for lunch when he should be in a Fisheries Committee meeting.

 

[Baldseagull]

The EU are desperate for the UK to stay. Firstly we contribute a significant slice of the budget and secondly, countries leaving the EU diminishes the whole construct and certainly opens the door for others to potentially follow the UK out of the exit.

Secondly, if we leave without a deal it puts at risk the 39 billion Euro settlement and the EU deperately needs the first traunche of that money pretty much immediately to balance next year's budget.

If it looks like we may leave without a deal, the smart move for the EU would be to offer enhanced terms that could get through the UK Parliament, but I doubt if there exists either the political will or the legislative time for that to happen. So it is out we go without a deal and see if the sky falls in on our heads...

If we look like heading into a no deal situation, I am sure the EU will offer us a period of extended membership, in return for £39 Billion or so, which we would be nuts not to take. If we pay nothing there will be legal wrangles trying to get at least some of it, they won't want to be saddled with Farage's pension.

 

[Baldseagull]

is this so? this would mean committing to withdrawal agreement, then negotiation towards ~Norway relation. there isnt an option to go from current to ~Norway. also losing the customs union would be against the current Labour policy so i wonder if there is really a majority.

It would be Norway, plus a Customs Union, so it would be like membership, but without the right to vote or veto anything.

 

[Eeyore]

May doesn’t get plan through, other - EFTA

Should have gone for that from the start. But in reality it would never have happened.

 

[Baldseagull]

Deluded if you think 2.4 million plus would change their mind because of the usual scaremongering.

They tried this shite before with Obama etc and no way would remain win.No chance of another referendum anyway as that's just plain stupid because of the bitter losers can't except the decision that was as clear as day....In or out of the EU !!

If 600,000 changed their minds, it would be 50/50, 1.2 million to get the opposite result. It is reckoned about 600,000 more leavers have died than remainers, so just needs 1 or 2 people to change their mind really.

 

[Baldseagull]

No, I'm just an ardent leaver, I'm also an oldie to boot. One of those few people who remember Britain before the Behemoth that is now the EU. A time when our farmers could grow what they liked and as much as they liked and when we had a huge fishing fleet that could catch what we liked when we liked.
Does that answer your question?

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You're a do-as-you-likey?

 

[golddene]

We? Isn't there a department within the EU that would hear the French complaints and make the rules for the fishing? There were rules, and the British boats were fishing within them when they were attacked.

Don't really want to poke my nose in here Trig but..... as I recall at the time the French fisheries dept or whatever they're called had stopped French fishermen/boats from fishing for these species for a further month to allow stock recovery which their British fisherie dept counterparts did not introduce these measures, therefore the British fleet started fishing these grounds legally in British eyes that the French were not allowed to do. This meant the French fishermen saw this as unfair and felt the British had an advantage and would take all the catch while they could only look on, consequently their illegal harassment of the British boats ensued. That's how I remember it was reported anyway? sorry, I'll butt out now.

 

[Baldseagull]

Er, that's innocent, since fishing then is within the law. The French fisherman broke the law by damaging the British boats.

They didn't object, they broke the law. You seem to be putting spin on this. Presumably our fishing methods are the same as they've been for years - if it's causing a problem, then why haven't the French addressed this using the legal channels?

The EU had no restriction in place, however, the French had a ban in place on its fleet to protect the breeding stock. The UK had agreed a compromise in the last few years, with the French, in that we would not allow our larger vessels to fish for scallops till the end of October, smaller vessels could still fish for scallop. The French suspect that because of Brexit, the British fleet were not concerned with preserving stocks for next year, as we would not have access to the Bay next year, and the larger vessels appeared.
So yes, the French fishermen broke the law, the Brits did not, but the Brits broke an agreement not to send the bigger boats, and the agreement was there for good reason. I think this is an instance where you have to break the law to do the right thing, going to court to get a ban would take longer than the British boats would need to clear the bay of scallops, with the potential to ruin scallop fishing in the area for years.

 

[DavidinSouthampton]

May gone then some sort of Norway deal where leavers will just have to put up with freedom of movement.

If not, a new referendum then we stay.

If the second we will just have to put up with a rise of very anti EU / far right uprising for a while even longer.

Longer term I think we see a re-emergence of centre ground politics. I think people are now longing for ambiguous ineffectual political blandness again rather than seeing what happens of you allow the far left and right fight it out and see what happens.

Seriously I hope future Governments deal with inequality in society because that's what got us here. Before anyone suggests I'm asking for Socialism I'm not.

Really just reacting to the fact that the 80s "trickle down" experiment never worked. The aspiration was for the middle class to grow off the back of allowing the rich the earn more and employ more people.

What happened is the poor got poorer and the rich got richer.

Totally agree. I am sure a major issue was the perception through austerity that this Europe thing was not working for many.

 

[Is it PotG?]

The present EU bunch will be LOVING every second of this, watching the UK infight and then go back, presumably after a second/third/fourth/fifth vote, with our tail between our legs.

'Please can we stay, but don't punish us too much'.

More money? Sure. Shall we lapdance for you? We can't go anywhere, so of course we shall.

We are f###ed.

 

[Hugo Rune]

We are f###ed.

We have been since Cameron decided to try and unite the Conservative party and win an election on the back of an EU referendum.

I’m shocked that so many people think that we can just simply renegotiate the Maydeal. That took 2 years to agree with most of the major issues still to be decided. We’ve only got a few months till we leave.

The EU have us exactly where they want us. Even Trump acknowledged that they’d played a blinder. They want a 2nd referendum and a remain vote win. They could get it now. At least we’ll all be better off in the pocket despite a loss of pride and thousands of ‘remainers’ moving out of the country (to somewhere like Spain) because they lost.

 

[Lower West Stander]

I just don’t care anymore.

I’m absolutely bloody sick of it. Nobody voted for this absolute mess


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[The Clamp]

Judging by the idiocy so far we will go bumbling out of the EU in the worst case scenario and it’ll only get worse. It’s over. The idiots won. The country is ruled and populated by utter morons. It’ll be generations before we get it back under sane control.
Well done morons, you ****ed the United Kingdom. At least you can believe you won something.

 

[murciagull]

We have been since Cameron decided to try and unite the Conservative party and win an election on the back of an EU referendum.

I’m shocked that so many people think that we can just simply renegotiate the Maydeal. That took 2 years to agree with most of the major issues still to be decided. We’ve only got a few months till we leave.

The EU have us exactly where they want us. Even Trump acknowledged that they’d played a blinder. They want a 2nd referendum and a remain vote win. They could get it now. At least we’ll all be better off in the pocket despite a loss of pride and thousands of ‘remainers’ moving out of the country (to somewhere like Spain) because they lost.

Sorry don't understand this post did the remainers win or lose?

 

[darkwolf666]

Whatever the outcome, it’s been handled absolutely appallingly by pretty much everyone involved. Which is EXACTLY what you expect given the utter ****ing ineptitude of those vested-interest wankers making the calls.

Are there actually any politicians left with the common sense and common decency the role requires?

No!

 

[darkwolf666]

Why? I we revoke Article 50, we stay in as we are. We don't suddenly lose the pound.

Do you really believe that if we go back to the EU and say “sorry chaps, we’ve changed our minds”, that things would go on as before, with no punishments? Losing the pound seems the obvious slap in the face!

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Do you really believe that if we go back to the EU and say “sorry chaps, we’ve changed our minds”, that things would go on as before, with no punishments? Losing the pound seems the obvious slap in the face!

Yes, it's written in law. Why on earth should an elected body, of which we are part, want to punish us? Where has this daft idea come from?
Project Fear by Leavers?

 

[Is it PotG?]

Yes, it's written in law. Why on earth should an elected body, of which we are part, want to punish us? Where has this daft idea come from?
Project Fear by Leavers?