[Politics] Brexit – what will happen?

[Baldseagull]

I expect the deal will be initially voted down, as too many people have stuck their neck on the line, there will then be a frantic week of amendments and minor changes that don't amount to that much different but allow MP's to say their concerns have been addressed, and the bill will then pass. The EU will give tacit approval to the amended deal in advance of the commons vote, although they will still need to meet and ratify it.

I cannot believe that the brexiteers will risk Brexit over this, they will assume they can renegotiate and change all kind of things once we're out, so getting out is the key. No, they will symbolically vote this one down and support a slightly-revised deal a week later. Only if there is a concerted effort by Labour plus all the remainers to block this and play it tactically to get a second referendum are we actually going to stay in, but I struggle to see how they can stay focused.

I think some of the Brexiteers would be quite happy if it didn't happen, if they vote for the deal and this is what we get, they will have ownership of the shit to follow, if they vote against and we end up in no deal, they will have ownership of the shit to follow, if they vote against this deal and we remain, they can pretend that they were robbed of the opportunity of a glorious brexit, talk about respecting the will of the people and remain electable.

 

[daveinplzen]

I went in search of the EU law that pissed me off and I did find one, it's that little screw on the cover of battery compartments you get now, that is an EU law, to stop kids swallowing batteries, but it really pisses me off when I need to change a battery, not to the extent that I am willing to risk a couple of kids a year choking to death or being poisoned, but it does piss me off.

Fascists

 

[A1X]

Do you really believe that if we go back to the EU and say “sorry chaps, we’ve changed our minds”, that things would go on as before, with no punishments? Losing the pound seems the obvious slap in the face!

Why? There are other EU nations which haven't joined the Euro. It might be likely that the UK has to give some ground but not all of it. We might join Schengen, for example (and about time too).

 

[Triggaaar]

Do you really believe that if we go back to the EU and say “sorry chaps, we’ve changed our minds”, that things would go on as before, with no punishments?

Yes, that's what the EU want.

Losing the pound seems the obvious slap in the face!

No chance the UK would accept that.

 

[Bodian]

I went in search of the EU law that pissed me off and I did find one, it's that little screw on the cover of battery compartments you get now, that is an EU law, to stop kids swallowing batteries, but it really pisses me off when I need to change a battery, not to the extent that I am willing to risk a couple of kids a year choking to death or being poisoned, but it does piss me off.

This isn't something I was aware of, but interested me. I couldn't actually find any 'law' as such - just guidance from local authorities, but they do refer to toy safety regulations, so I'm assuming there is something specific. I did find some international standards adopted (but not in law) by the US, Japan, Australia - and promoted by RoSPA, so even if we left the EU we'd probably have to comply anyway - as it seems to be an internationally supported standard, not just EU. If we looked hard enough, we'd probably find it was something proposed by us anyway!

 

[Triggaaar]

Let's put the boot on the other foot with this - If a commercial 30 metre French trawler from the South of France, with previous convictions in regards to it's landings, that it can be blase about due to it's financial clout, was fishing scallops in Rye Bay and could harvest a great deal of them before the breeding season has finished, and a fleet of British fishermen in sub metre boats with 'RX' on the stern, that couldn't fish due to DEFRA imposed restrictions not CFP, were protesting at it's presence, would you be so quick to jump to the defence of the French trawler and criticise the actions of Hastings fishermen?

Protesting? Obviously they weren't just protesting, which is the point.

If the rules aren't protecting the fishermen, because they're allowing wealthy companies to over-fish, change the rules.

 

[Triggaaar]

Don't really want to poke my nose in here Trig but..... as I recall at the time the French fisheries dept or whatever they're called had stopped French fishermen/boats from fishing for these species for a further month to allow stock recovery which their British fisherie dept counterparts did not introduce these measures, therefore the British fleet started fishing these grounds legally in British eyes that the French were not allowed to do. This meant the French fishermen saw this as unfair and felt the British had an advantage and would take all the catch while they could only look on, consequently their illegal harassment of the British boats ensued. That's how I remember it was reported anyway?

Yeah that's how I remember it too. The French fisherman should have been on at the French fisheries dept at the start, to make sure they weren't restricted while the British were allowed to continue. Instead of banning the French fishermen, the French fisheries should then have been working with the British fisheries to have rules that apply both sides, which would help protect the stock.

I'm all for sustainability and fair rules that apply to all. I don't think it's right for the French fisheries to come up with a new rule which hasn't been agreed with the British, and then attack British ships when they haven't broken any rules.

 

[beorhthelm]

Pleas e explain why it is that the EU is to blame for these.

1. free movement of capital and goods mean you have to allow any business from across EU, so an outside company can setup in the lowest tax domicile to channel their sales/revenue through. example Amazon used to sell everything out of Luxembourg for lower VAT; Apple, Facebook, Google book sales in Dublin to pay tax under their rules (where you dont pay tax on revenue outside IRE).
2. EU directives on carbon tax and later smart meter have increased our energy bills. of course we want lower pollution, doesn't mean the EU imposed rules havent led to those cost increases.

theses are consequences of some of the benefits of membership.

 

[Triggaaar]

The EU had no restriction in place, however, the French had a ban in place on its fleet to protect the breeding stock. The UK had agreed a compromise in the last few years, with the French, in that we would not allow our larger vessels to fish for scallops till the end of October, smaller vessels could still fish for scallop.

Firstly it seems daft that there was an agreement with no legal standing.

The French suspect that because of Brexit, the British fleet were not concerned with preserving stocks for next year, as we would not have access to the Bay next year, and the larger vessels appeared.
So yes, the French fishermen broke the law, the Brits did not, but the Brits broke an agreement not to send the bigger boats, and the agreement was there for good reason.

Is really that 'the British' as a whole broke the agreement, and that 'the British' aren't concerned with protecting stocks, or was it a small number of large boats that broke the agreement?

 

[ManOfSussex]

Protesting? Obviously they weren't just protesting, which is the point.

If the rules aren't protecting the fishermen, because they're allowing wealthy companies to over-fish, change the rules.

I appreciate the term is subjective but what was was particularly obvious to you in your experience of fishing protests from the limited and edited video footage that they weren't just protesting at the presence of the aforementioned boats, particularly The Honeybourne III, and things got out of hand as boats moved at sea at speed and cut across each other?

In regards to the 'rules' or the administration and allocation of the quotas by DEFRA, it's successive British Government's putting the interest of big business first - in some years 90% of the cfp quota has been given over to just 10% of the total British fishing fleet, purely in terms of number of boats, irrespective of their size. It's so ironic that the one remaining Lib Dem MEP in The UK was part of an EU parliamentary delegation to Whitehall to argue this point on behalf of her fishing constituents in South East England, whereas UKIP just promulgate fantasies about the future of fishing.

 

[mikeyjh]

Like most others, I've no real clue what's going to happen but surely, SURELY, any sane person would say that maybe we just hit the pause button, take a breather, defuse the situation and have a rational discussion about where go next?? Basically take a 6 month extension (the EU would agree, no doubt) and ultimately come up with real options and put it to the people.

 

[Triggaaar]

The present EU bunch will be LOVING every second of this, watching the UK infight and then go back, presumably after a second/third/fourth/fifth vote, with our tail between our legs.

'Please can we stay, but don't punish us too much'.

More money? Sure. Shall we lapdance for you? We can't go anywhere, so of course we shall.

We are f###ed.

I don't think it works like that.

 

[Triggaaar]

I appreciate the term is subjective but what was was particularly obvious to you in your experience of fishing protests from the limited and edited video footage that they weren't just protesting at the presence of the aforementioned boats, particularly The Honeybourne III, and things got out of hand as boats moved at sea at speed and cut across each other?

In my experience, throwing metal parts and rocks is regarded by all sides as going beyond what is considered an acceptable protest.

 

[ManOfSussex]

In my experience, throwing metal parts and rocks is regarded by all sides as going beyond what is considered an acceptable protest.

Heated and dangerous swings and roundabouts that got out of hand - British fishermen would have done exactly the same if the boot was the other foot and they were in a 10 metre boat rammed from behind by a 30 metre trawler at speed.

 

[beorhthelm]

Like most others, I've no real clue what's going to happen but surely, SURELY, any sane person would say that maybe we just hit the pause button, take a breather, defuse the situation and have a rational discussion about where go next?? Basically take a 6 month extension (the EU would agree, no doubt) and ultimately come up with real options and put it to the people.

take a breather for what purpose? EU isnt going to change the agreement, UK is not going to come up with some substantial change anyway. its been discussed to death for 4 years. time to move on, parliament accept the deal or not, move onto negotiate future.

 

[Triggaaar]

Heated and dangerous swings and roundabouts that got out of hand - British fishermen would have done exactly the same if the boot was the other foot and they were in a 10 metre boat rammed from behind by a 30 metre trawler at speed.

I don't think the Honeybourne changed its course to ram the French boat, it looks like the French boat cut across the Honeybourne. The footage was taken from another French ship, and they haven't released all the footage. And the people throwing things weren't on the 10m boat, they were on another large French boat.

And it's not like it was only the large British ships that were attacked, the Golden Promise and Joanna C are 14m and 10m, and they were attacked too.

 

[kemptown kid]

Scallops controversy proof that real life far more complicated than the simplistic lies and half truths peddled by Farage, Johnson, Gove, Rees-Mogg and the rest and that the UK has been a leading component of the EU for over 40 years, not the victim/vassal of some conspiracy concocted by 'them'. Right wingers always need a scapegoat or two and the EU fits the bill at the moment.

 

[ManOfSussex]

I don't think the Honeybourne changed its course to ram the French boat, it looks like the French boat cut across the Honeybourne. The footage was taken from another French ship, and they haven't released all the footage. And the people throwing things weren't on the 10m boat, they were on another large French boat.

And it's not like it was only the large British ships that were attacked, the Golden Promise and Joanna C are 14m and 10m, and they were attacked too.

The footage isn't conclusive one way or the other, the boats are too dangerously close together and there's nothing of what was going on at the wheels and there are obviously 2 sides to that dispute, but if you're rammed by a 30 metre trawler from behind, irrespective of who actually cut across who, you would throw everything you get your hands on at it, as you could be in the water and going under it's bow quite quickly. British fishermen would have done exactly the same and I can think of a few I've known personally down the years who would too.

 

[Giraffe]

Voted other.

May won't get her plan through, the EU concede a little ground, probably on the unilateral (only the EU can agree to end) one way backstop which is totally unreasonable and they know it. A new vote then goes through. Had they presented this in the first place it might still have lost but by seeming to change and concede at the last minute on this it is more likely to get support.

I think the whole thing is staged for this.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Voted other.

May won't get her plan through, the EU concede a little ground, probably on the unilateral (only the EU can agree to end) one way backstop which is totally unreasonable and they know it. A new vote then goes through. Had they presented this in the first place it might still have lost but by seeming to change and concede at the last minute on this it is more likely to get support.

I think the whole thing is staged for this.

Actually we have to agree as well to end the backstop. The EU can't do it on it's own.