[Politics] Brexit – what will happen?

[darkwolf666]

Yes, it's written in law. Why on earth should an elected body, of which we are part, want to punish us? Where has this daft idea come from?
Project Fear by Leavers?

Written in law, is that the same laws that says the result of a referendum would be binding, yet many want to ignore.

Anyone who believes the EU will welcome us back with open arms are seriously deluded...

 

[Thunder Bolt]

The EU had no restriction in place, however, the French had a ban in place on its fleet to protect the breeding stock. The UK had agreed a compromise in the last few years, with the French, in that we would not allow our larger vessels to fish for scallops till the end of October, smaller vessels could still fish for scallop. The French suspect that because of Brexit, the British fleet were not concerned with preserving stocks for next year, as we would not have access to the Bay next year, and the larger vessels appeared.
So yes, the French fishermen broke the law, the Brits did not, but the Brits broke an agreement not to send the bigger boats, and the agreement was there for good reason. I think this is an instance where you have to break the law to do the right thing, going to court to get a ban would take longer than the British boats would need to clear the bay of scallops, with the potential to ruin scallop fishing in the area for years.

Thank you. You explained it better than I could.

 

[giveusfalmerplease]

NONE OF THE ABOVE - plan fails and parliament votes NO BREXIT

 

[Norman Potting]

 

[WATFORD zero]

Written in law, is that the same laws that says the result of a referendum would be binding, yet many want to ignore.

Anyone who believes the EU will welcome us back with open arms are seriously deluded...

There is certainly one seriously deluded individual on here.

(And the referendum wasn't binding, it was advisory. There is no law - Look it up)

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Written in law, is that the same laws that says the result of a referendum would be binding, yet many want to ignore.

Anyone who believes the EU will welcome us back with open arms are seriously deluded...

The Referendum Act 2015 said the result would be advisory, not binding. The only thing that said binding was a leaflet from Cameron, which is not legally binding.
Revoking Article 50 stops the process dead in its tracks. Everything reverts to as it was before March 2017.

After March 2019, it's a different scenario, and I hope we don't get there.

 

[ManOfSussex]

Who is letting the facts get in the way? Certainly not me. So a British boat broke the rules twice, and got fined each time. That doesn't suddenly make it lawful for the French fisherman to attach the British boats.

I didn't say it does make it lawful, but the rather simplistic, jingoistic, hypocritical, not to mention ignorant, narrative to this story is evident in the reporting. This is a large scale commercial Scottish trawler, operating in French, channel waters owned by a wealthy, powerful, parent company, to whom breaching quota restrictions on their landings and subsequent fines and convictions are a mere inconvenient occupational hazard, not a matter of bankruptcy as happens to a 10 metre boat, who do very well out of DEFRA's administration of the CFP quota, against 10 metre boats fighting for what they can get, who are ignored by Whitehall and feed off scraps to make a living, as their French counterparts do in this story.

Let's put the boot on the other foot with this - If a commercial 30 metre French trawler from the South of France, with previous convictions in regards to it's landings, that it can be blase about due to it's financial clout, was fishing scallops in Rye Bay and could harvest a great deal of them before the breeding season has finished, and a fleet of British fishermen in sub metre boats with 'RX' on the stern, that couldn't fish due to DEFRA imposed restrictions not CFP, were protesting at it's presence, would you be so quick to jump to the defence of the French trawler and criticise the actions of Hastings fishermen?

 

[Insel affe]

We will get screwed if we leave and screwed if we stay, there is bound to be some punishment the EU would love to slap on us, probably financial.

We will get fed scare stories, about if we stay or go, it's their fault or yours, when if we think about it, we all knew the EU is not working and is elitist and something needed to be done to make if fairer, it needs / needed changing, instead of blaming the leave or remain voters (ourselves)

Why oh why are we not actually blaming the EU ? Why have they not looked at the bigger picture and said, hang on somethings wrong, lets fix this...
No they have not, instead they are happy milking us for as much as they can get, instead of sitting down and looking at the bigger picture, no they have not because far to many have vested interests in business.
If we leave, the EU will collapse over time, we will not be the last, rumblings in Poland about leaving, Italy is on the verge of financial collapse.

Ultimately life will go on, you will breath the same air, have the same dreams, love the same people.

I find it sad that people like Cameron can start this all off and walk away, and before anyone points scores let us remember Blair leading us into a futile war.

We are all being played, divide and rule, my fellow countrymen and women, divide and rule and we are falling for it.

Keep your dreams alive people, don't live in fear of leave or remain.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Just one simple thing.

If we do not leave then we remain on the same terms that British Governments of all political hues have successfully negotiated for us over the last 45 years.

To suggest anything else, (we have to take the Euro, they will punish us) is at best, ill informed bollocks.

I'm not suggesting any particular poster is stupid but there are some very stupid things being written

 

[vegster]

negotiating a trade deal for selling fish shouldnt be challenge since they want the fish from UK waters and there's nowt else around. a view from Spain is it could be a significant vote loser if they imports were blocked, they take their fish quite seriously.

Brexit was supposed to give us complete control of our waters and keep those pesky foreign fishermen out . Obviously this is right up there with the usual Brexit promises as being a outright lie. Our fishermen need access to foreign fisheries so deals will have to be made, as Mrs May said " Nothing has changed " and it hasn't ! " Taking Back Control " means allowing access for foreign vessels as before.

 

[vegster]

Just one simple thing.

If we do not leave then we remain on the same terms that British Governments of all political hues have successfully negotiated for us over the last 45 years.

To suggest anything else, (we have to take the Euro, they will punish us) is at best, ill informed bollocks.

I'm not suggesting any particular poster is stupid but there are some very stupid things being written

There are some great websites and videos in existence highlighting all the alleged EU diktats and rules that were going to be enforced on us, all of which have been shot down as complete lies but jumped upon by the foreign based press barons as proof of a EU dictatorship. Every time we have disagreed with something put forward by the EU we have complained and the EU have said, " OK then don't do it then " . I genuinely struggle to find anything about my life which has been made worse by being a part of Europe.

 

[beorhthelm]

I genuinely struggle to find anything about my life which has been made worse by being a part of Europe.

remember that next time complaining about large US corp tax avoidance and high energy bills, both directly result of EU law. its fine to be a supporter of remaining, let not pretend they never passed any law or directive thats an imposition somewhere, government always does.

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

May gone then some sort of Norway deal where leavers will just have to put up with freedom of movement.

If not, a new referendum then we stay.

If the second we will just have to put up with a rise of very anti EU / far right uprising for a while even longer.

Longer term I think we see a re-emergence of centre ground politics. I think people are now longing for ambiguous ineffectual political blandness again rather than seeing what happens of you allow the far left and right fight it out and see what happens.

Seriously I hope future Governments deal with inequality in society because that's what got us here. Before anyone suggests I'm asking for Socialism I'm not.

Really just reacting to the fact that the 80s "trickle down" experiment never worked. The aspiration was for the middle class to grow off the back of allowing the rich the earn more and employ more people.

What happened is the poor got poorer and the rich got richer.

Agree with most of that - but both options you list will upset all leave voters as it means freedom of movement continues, which was a major reason for Leave winning.

It's a mess - caused by Cameron pandering to his own Party, but also by the EU - they could have given him a much better deal and we would never have got this faras remain woud have won (they shouls d have done but ran a hugely negative campaign)

IMO, May's first deal won't get through - when people like Michael Fallon, a loyal Tory, are voting against it she has no chance and whether she has another go will depend on the size of her defeat on the 11th December.

She could go back to Europe and see what she can get, but I don't think she'll get anything, I think Tusk and Barnier are banking on us holding a second referendum and remaining.

 

[ManOfSussex]

As reported previously, The Times is reporting again today The EU would be prepared to offer an extension to Article 50 to allow time to alter the future political declaration to a 'Norway-Plus' model or for a second referendum if May's deal is rejected. The withdrawal agreement is still set in stone though if it's the former though.

 

[Baldseagull]

Do you really believe that if we go back to the EU and say “sorry chaps, we’ve changed our minds”, that things would go on as before, with no punishments? Losing the pound seems the obvious slap in the face!

If we leave and rejoin, then the terms for us are likely to be different, if we never leave we will retain our current status, that is keep the pound, keep the rebate and keep the veto's that we have. There is a judgement due to be announced on December 4th by the EU courts on wether we can just say, sorry, we changed our minds and stay as we are, or if we would need the EU to say ok or not. Even if we need the EU to agree, what they will be agreeing to is us remaining as we are, they know they need to do some serious PR in Britain, and putting us over a barrel is not going to win them any friends.

 

[Bodian]

I'm actually beginning to think that the deal might get through. MPs are quite well known for a lot of hot air and bluster - but then meekly doing what they're told to when it comes to voting. A lot of the ardent leavers have said they won't vote for the deal because it's not strong enough - but as it becomes more and more likely that the result of voting down the deal will be a second referendum, I very much suspect that they'll come round to backing the deal as the likely alternative is no Brexit at all. Even the DUP are now only saying that they 'won't back the deal', which is a long way from their earlier stance of stating that they would 'vote against' the deal, and abstaining changes the numbers in a different way to a straight swap in sides.

So, I suspect that most of the Tories will do as they're ordered to, and some Labour will also vote for the deal. So, it may well get through after all?

 

[Baldseagull]

Written in law, is that the same laws that says the result of a referendum would be binding, yet many want to ignore.

Anyone who believes the EU will welcome us back with open arms are seriously deluded...

Sorry mate the situation is exactly the opposite, the referendum result is not legally binding, no one is ignoring it, and the EU would be glad of us staying, because it is damaging for them too.
At one time, there seemed to be no shortage of people saying that the EU would give us a great deal because they need us more than we need them, now it seems that has all turned into they will punish us for staying, they won't, they will be relieved and glad to have avoided the disruption.
If we leave and try to come back later, we still will not be punished, but we would be unlikely to get back all the little sweeteners that we have now.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

I expect the deal will be initially voted down, as too many people have stuck their neck on the line, there will then be a frantic week of amendments and minor changes that don't amount to that much different but allow MP's to say their concerns have been addressed, and the bill will then pass. The EU will give tacit approval to the amended deal in advance of the commons vote, although they will still need to meet and ratify it.

I cannot believe that the brexiteers will risk Brexit over this, they will assume they can renegotiate and change all kind of things once we're out, so getting out is the key. No, they will symbolically vote this one down and support a slightly-revised deal a week later. Only if there is a concerted effort by Labour plus all the remainers to block this and play it tactically to get a second referendum are we actually going to stay in, but I struggle to see how they can stay focused.

 

[Baldseagull]

There are some great websites and videos in existence highlighting all the alleged EU diktats and rules that were going to be enforced on us, all of which have been shot down as complete lies but jumped upon by the foreign based press barons as proof of a EU dictatorship. Every time we have disagreed with something put forward by the EU we have complained and the EU have said, " OK then don't do it then " . I genuinely struggle to find anything about my life which has been made worse by being a part of Europe.

I went in search of the EU law that pissed me off and I did find one, it's that little screw on the cover of battery compartments you get now, that is an EU law, to stop kids swallowing batteries, but it really pisses me off when I need to change a battery, not to the extent that I am willing to risk a couple of kids a year choking to death or being poisoned, but it does piss me off.

 

[Baldseagull]

remember that next time complaining about large US corp tax avoidance and high energy bills, both directly result of EU law. its fine to be a supporter of remaining, let not pretend they never passed any law or directive thats an imposition somewhere, government always does.

Pleas e explain why it is that the EU is to blame for these.