[Politics] Brexit

cunning fergus · Friday at 7:04 AM

nicko31 said:
Do you think an FTA from Trump would be better than EU single market/customs union for the UK?

In pure economic performance terms, and if there was an relatively equal FTA status on offer from US and EU, then I would pick the US, no shadow of doubt.

https://search.app/8ruWC9Lfa9UDxDzK8

7 ways the US is beating Europe

Scan the economic data and it’s easy to see why Europeans have reason to look on with envy at their friends across the Atlantic.

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Why US economy is powering ahead of Europe's

A fast-growing economy, low jobless numbers and falling inflation - how the US outpaced competitors.

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Comparatively the US has outperformed the EU consistently in last 15 years, and Trump is going to turbo charge their economy. In his next term it looks like even the likes of Bezos and Zuckerberg are in the tent, which was not the dynamic in his previous term.

He is going to chop away at “overheads” like ESG and US firms are already quietly disposing of resources previously accumulated in these areas. Like it or not that kind of deregulation will free up US firms unlike their EU counterparts.

Most importantly though, the US is going to be in a different sphere when in comes to energy prices and Trump will prioritise cheap energy for economic performance over cost to move renewables etc. Again that may not be popular with the yoghurt knitting brigade but it will deliver better economic performance, especially with the EU’s baked in disadvantage on energy.

There may be other reasons why some would rather rejoin the EU but compared to a US deal, they aren’t economic.

nicko31 · Friday at 9:19 AM

cunning fergus said:
In pure economic performance terms, and if there was an relatively equal FTA status on offer from US and EU, then I would pick the US, no shadow of doubt.

https://search.app/8ruWC9Lfa9UDxDzK8

7 ways the US is beating Europe

Scan the economic data and it’s easy to see why Europeans have reason to look on with envy at their friends across the Atlantic.

search.app

Why US economy is powering ahead of Europe's

A fast-growing economy, low jobless numbers and falling inflation - how the US outpaced competitors.

search.app

Comparatively the US has outperformed the EU consistently in last 15 years, and Trump is going to turbo charge their economy. In his next term it looks like even the likes of Bezos and Zuckerberg are in the tent, which was not the dynamic in his previous term.

He is going to chop away at “overheads” like ESG and US firms are already quietly disposing of resources previously accumulated in these areas. Like it or not that kind of deregulation will free up US firms unlike their EU counterparts.

Most importantly though, the US is going to be in a different sphere when in comes to energy prices and Trump will prioritise cheap energy for economic performance over cost to move renewables etc. Again that may not be popular with the yoghurt knitting brigade but it will deliver better economic performance, especially with the EU’s baked in disadvantage on energy.

There may be other reasons why some would rather rejoin the EU but compared to a US deal, they aren’t economic.

The cheapest form of new energy is renewables. The only reason not to go this route is if you're being back rolled by vested interests from the fossil fuel industry

Is it too late in life for you to get a green card? Then you can adopt a life on processed corn sirup, homone beef and sign up for private health insurance. I'll heard its great when you get ill

Lever · Friday at 1:23 PM

cunning fergus said:
In pure economic performance terms, and if there was an relatively equal FTA status on offer from US and EU, then I would pick the US, no shadow of doubt.

https://search.app/8ruWC9Lfa9UDxDzK8

7 ways the US is beating Europe

Scan the economic data and it’s easy to see why Europeans have reason to look on with envy at their friends across the Atlantic.

search.app

Why US economy is powering ahead of Europe's

A fast-growing economy, low jobless numbers and falling inflation - how the US outpaced competitors.

search.app

Comparatively the US has outperformed the EU consistently in last 15 years, and Trump is going to turbo charge their economy. In his next term it looks like even the likes of Bezos and Zuckerberg are in the tent, which was not the dynamic in his previous term.

He is going to chop away at “overheads” like ESG and US firms are already quietly disposing of resources previously accumulated in these areas. Like it or not that kind of deregulation will free up US firms unlike their EU counterparts.

Most importantly though, the US is going to be in a different sphere when in comes to energy prices and Trump will prioritise cheap energy for economic performance over cost to move renewables etc. Again that may not be popular with the yoghurt knitting brigade but it will deliver better economic performance, especially with the EU’s baked in disadvantage on energy.

There may be other reasons why some would rather rejoin the EU but compared to a US deal, they aren’t economic.

'turbo charge'? What does that overused cliche actually mean? Just asking.......

Pavilionaire · Friday at 2:16 PM

cunning fergus said:
Most importantly though, the US is going to be in a different sphere when in comes to energy prices and Trump will prioritise cheap energy for economic performance over cost to move renewables etc. Again that may not be popular with the yoghurt knitting brigade but it will deliver better economic performance, especially with the EU’s baked in disadvantage on energy.

When you say "yoghurt knitting brigade" - who are few in number - do you actually mean people like me who form 90% of the human race that do give a f*ck about the environment?

I'm sure in a hundred year's time when the world is a barren wasteland people will be whispering in reverential tones about how what a great President Trump was and how he turbo-charged the US economy for 4 years.

He is a dinosaur, he just doesn't get the environment and it would be climactic suicide to follow his lead.

Rdodge30 · Friday at 2:43 PM

Pavilionaire said:
90% of the human race that do give a f*ck about the environment?

I imagine if there was a poll asking do you care about the environment yes or no? The results would be higher than 90% however the actions of the human race show that practically nobody actually cares enough to reduce effects.

Randy McNob · Friday at 11:11 PM

cunning fergus · Saturday at 12:58 AM

nicko31 said:
The cheapest form of new energy is renewables. The only reason not to go this route is if you're being back rolled by vested interests from the fossil fuel industry

Is it too late in life for you to get a green card? Then you can adopt a life on processed corn sirup, homone beef and sign up for private health insurance. I'll heard its great when you get ill

On renewables not yet, the return may come but that’s by the by.

My point was strictly on economic performance, if we want the burden of welfare, ESG and net zero etc. then economic performance will be sub optimal.

That’s why the EU economic performance is sclerotic compared to the US, and rejoining it for those reasons is fine, just don’t push the narrative for rejoining the EU for economic reasons when the US equivalent will deliver much better economic performance.

BadFish · Saturday at 1:00 AM

Rdodge30 said:
I imagine if there was a poll asking do you care about the environment yes or no? The results would be higher than 90% however the actions of the human race show that practically nobody actually cares enough to reduce effects.

I disagree, the vast majority have taken some steps to reduce the effects of climate change. Whether it though, recycling, solar panels, electric cars, reducing our usage of single use plastics, the list is long. The problem is the efforts of the majority pale into insignificance when compared to the likes of Trump, who actually weild the power to make change and prioritise the economy over the planet.

We could all do more of course, but what is the point when the ocean we are dropping into decides not to make changes.

BadFish · Saturday at 1:04 AM

cunning fergus said:
On renewables not yet, the return may come but that’s by the by.

My point was strictly on economic performance, if we want the burden of welfare, ESG and net zero etc. then economic performance will be sub optimal.

That’s why the EU economic performance is sclerotic compared to the US, and rejoining it for those reasons is fine, just don’t push the narrative for rejoining the EU for economic reasons when the US equivalent will deliver much better economic performance.

What makes you think that potential improvement in the US economy will improve the economic outlook for the UK?

The difference is that being in the EU means you are actually part of it and wedded to any success or failure. Hitching yourself to the wagon of the US means you are hoping to be thrown some crumbs from the table of an economy that really doesn't give two fucks about you. Trump is very clear that he is going to do what's best for America with tarrifs on foreign goods and the like, I struggle to see how this will benefit any other country aside from his own.

cunning fergus · Saturday at 1:09 AM

Lever said:
'turbo charge'? What does that overused cliche actually mean? Just asking.......

Time will tell, but we know Trump is going to leverage the US advantages to the max, net zero won’t be on his radar like it or not.

The US has its own energy to an extent the EU doesn’t. Decarbonisation is all well and good if all the players on a level playing field. The EU is going to make its life even harder with a US pushing its energy prices down to be even more competitive.

https://search.app/3e95t1LjJhKP2Qk5A

Mario Draghi knows it, anyone with a couple of brain cells knows it. Energy is the cornerstone of industrial and economic performance. We will see that in the US once Trump is at the wheel. Given we are outside the EU we can either go with it and get the economic benefits or push against it and impoverish ourselves even further.

cunning fergus · Saturday at 1:15 AM

Pavilionaire said:
When you say "yoghurt knitting brigade" - who are few in number - do you actually mean people like me who form 90% of the human race that do give a f*ck about the environment?

I'm sure in a hundred year's time when the world is a barren wasteland people will be whispering in reverential tones about how what a great President Trump was and how he turbo-charged the US economy for 4 years.

He is a dinosaur, he just doesn't get the environment and it would be climactic suicide to follow his lead.

That’s your view, and I disagree. A US which pushes its energy prices down is de facto going to be more competitive and effective economically.

There may be ethical issues with that, but it’s not going to change the reality of what’s coming. We can either benefit from it or not.

There’s the point, if you want to maximise the UK’s economic performance then we get under the duvet with Trump, if you want the moral superiority of net zero then we don’t. The EU (in my view) and as Draghi is warning is going to learn a hard lesson if it keeps on its current trajectory.

Lever · Saturday at 7:06 AM

So 'turbo charge' in this context means going for a very short term financially beneficial option that is ethically wrong and will probably prove environmentally disastrous in the longer term.

You seem to suggest we in the UK should follow the trend in order to avoid 'missing out' economically because Trump is leading a charge for that financial benefit....... regardless of the damage.

I hope not........

What will your children and grandchildren think of your values when the world faces environmental armageddon?

It's not a matter of 'moral superiority', that's just trite and lazy comment! It's about making a stand in recognition of the scientific evidence on self inflicted natural disasters that even Thatcher warned against.......

'Moral high ground' is like 'sovereignty' is some respects. In terms of the global threat to nature that almost all scientists tell us about and populist political leaders refute, neither will matter in the slightest if we are destroying our world. Who do you believe, the scientific consensus or a businessman who proposes consuming bleach to clear CoVid?

WATFORD zero · Saturday at 8:54 AM

cunning fergus said:
That’s your view, and I disagree. A US which pushes its energy prices down is de facto going to be more competitive and effective economically.

There may be ethical issues with that, but it’s not going to change the reality of what’s coming. We can either benefit from it or not.

There’s the point, if you want to maximise the UK’s economic performance then we get under the duvet with Trump, if you want the moral superiority of net zero then we don’t. The EU (in my view) and as Draghi is warning is going to learn a hard lesson if it keeps on its current trajectory.

After all these years and mountains of evidence to the contrary, you're still pushing the idea that the US will give us a brilliant trade deal after we leave the EU that'll make up for everything we lost.

I've got some news for you. It's happened, they didn't and still won't :dunce:

rogersix · Saturday at 10:19 AM

nicko31 said:
Gebeebies needs to have its licence revoked by Ofcom. They fail every test of impartiality, somehow the rules aren’t being applied to them

it's because gbeebies have classified themselves as an entertainment channel to avoid scrutiny by ofcom. only in an election run up do they need to deviate from deceiving their audience

rogersix · Saturday at 10:33 AM

cunning fergus said:
In pure economic performance terms, and if there was an relatively equal FTA status on offer from US and EU, then I would pick the US, no shadow of doubt.

https://search.app/8ruWC9Lfa9UDxDzK8

7 ways the US is beating Europe

Scan the economic data and it’s easy to see why Europeans have reason to look on with envy at their friends across the Atlantic.

search.app

Why US economy is powering ahead of Europe's

A fast-growing economy, low jobless numbers and falling inflation - how the US outpaced competitors.

search.app

Comparatively the US has outperformed the EU consistently in last 15 years, and Trump is going to turbo charge their economy. In his next term it looks like even the likes of Bezos and Zuckerberg are in the tent, which was not the dynamic in his previous term.

He is going to chop away at “overheads” like ESG and US firms are already quietly disposing of resources previously accumulated in these areas. Like it or not that kind of deregulation will free up US firms unlike their EU counterparts.

Most importantly though, the US is going to be in a different sphere when in comes to energy prices and Trump will prioritise cheap energy for economic performance over cost to move renewables etc. Again that may not be popular with the yoghurt knitting brigade but it will deliver better economic performance, especially with the EU’s baked in disadvantage on energy.

There may be other reasons why some would rather rejoin the EU but compared to a US deal, they aren’t economic.

if the criteria were, equality of opportunity, and quality of life for all, would you then favour the eu?

A1X · Saturday at 10:37 AM

cunning fergus said:
In pure economic performance terms, and if there was an relatively equal FTA status on offer from US and EU, then I would pick the US, no shadow of doubt.

…

There may be other reasons why some would rather rejoin the EU but compared to a US deal, they aren’t economic.

The problem is with FTAs that it isn’t just based on “whoever hitches themselves to the fastest growing economy wins”. Under economic terms, it usually makes far more sense to do the bulk of your trade with nations that have similar standards and are geographically close by, which is why that’s what 99% of the world does.

So the economic case of US over EU is nowhere near as cut and dried as you might like to think (or to which you are ideologically predisposed).

chickens · Saturday at 10:37 AM

WATFORD zero said:
After all these years and mountains of evidence to the contrary, you're still pushing the idea that the US will give us a brilliant trade deal after we leave the EU that'll make up for everything we lost.

I've got some news for you. It's happened, they didn't and still won't

Absolutely, we’re useless to the US now, which is why Ireland has gained massively from Brexit, they’re now America’s English speaking “in” to the EU.

We’re just a limp, angry looking appendage hanging uselessly off the EU’s coast.

(In geopolitical terms)

jcdenton08 · Saturday at 10:52 AM

chickens said:
Absolutely, we’re useless to the US now, which is why Ireland has gained massively from Brexit, they’re now America’s English speaking “in” to the EU.

We’re just a limp, angry looking appendage hanging uselessly off the EU’s coast.

(In geopolitical terms)

Yes and no, for such a wealthy country a great number of Irish citizens are very vocally angry about how their country is being by run.

chickens · Saturday at 11:19 AM

jcdenton08 said:
Yes and no, for such a wealthy country a great number of Irish citizens are very vocally angry about how their country is being by run.

And quite rightly so, they are effectively getting the treatment the UK was getting from the “Big Bang” reforms of the 1980s onward. US multinationals are settling in for the long haul.

The difference being that Ireland still has some blood in it to oppose it. The UK’s become increasingly supine, we’ll sell anything to anyone, we spin it as a virtue. Which would be fine if other countries in the world did it, but they protect their own citizens and businesses from global capital’s worst excesses, we’re not just open for business, we’re gaping.

Pavilionaire · Saturday at 2:12 PM

cunning fergus said:
That’s your view, and I disagree. A US which pushes its energy prices down is de facto going to be more competitive and effective economically.

There may be ethical issues with that, but it’s not going to change the reality of what’s coming. We can either benefit from it or not.

There’s the point, if you want to maximise the UK’s economic performance then we get under the duvet with Trump, if you want the moral superiority of net zero then we don’t. The EU (in my view) and as Draghi is warning is going to learn a hard lesson if it keeps on its current trajectory.

Don't you think we've reached the point where the need to stop climate change is more important than turbo charging an economy?

The trick is to make the switch to green energy and be economically sustainable.

We are now beyond economics, this is existential. i maintain, Trump doesn't get it, and another big worry is Farage doesn't either.

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