[Politics] Brexit

[cunning fergus]

What makes you think that potential improvement in the US economy will improve the economic outlook for the UK?

The difference is that being in the EU means you are actually part of it and wedded to any success or failure. Hitching yourself to the wagon of the US means you are hoping to be thrown some crumbs from the table of an economy that really doesn't give two fucks about you. Trump is very clear that he is going to do what's best for America with tarrifs on foreign goods and the like, I struggle to see how this will benefit any other country aside from his own.

Fair question and let’s be clear, securing a deal will take top order statecraft from an establishment and political leadership that looks and behaves decidedly sub standard.

In macro trade terms we are small beer to the US, it’s the top tier exporters that Trump will target with tariffs, and that means China and Germany, but by extension that means the EU.

Here is the sweet spot for the U.K. to exploit, we keep far enough from the EU that we can secure a discrete US/U.K. trade agreement, all the indicators are that one will be on offer.

I don’t doubt there will elements of that which will make some shit the bed however that’s life, overall a free trade agreement with the US would be positive, not least a US performing well economically.

Otherwise we can stick 2 fingers up to Trump and economically speaking chain ourselves to a corpse.

 

[WATFORD zero]

In macro trade terms we are small beer to the US, it’s the top tier exporters that Trump will target with tariffs, and that means China and Germany, but by extension that means the EU.

Here is the sweet spot for the U.K. to exploit, we keep far enough from the EU that we can secure a discrete US/U.K. trade agreement, all the indicators are that one will be on offer.

I don’t doubt there will elements of that which will make some shit the bed however that’s life, overall a free trade agreement with the US would be positive, not least a US performing well economically.