- Jul 10, 2003
- 27,818
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[Politics] Brexit
- Thread starter KingstonSeagull
- Start date
- Aug 24, 2020
- 7,228
You rejected the detail without knowing what it was. You tried to trash the conclusion, based on scant knowledge of the data.
Make the theory fit the data.
Don't start with a theory and then select the data that you think fits it. And then trash all other data that counters your theory.
Machiavelli
Well-known member
Is it really? We can all note that you don't provide any evidence for this claim. In searching, things are hardly conclusive, but these government reports suggest otherwise:
Data for Chart 3.3: Trends in UK food production and for all agricultural output - GOV.UK
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
dsr-burnley
Well-known member
- Aug 15, 2014
- 2,657
Is it really? We can all note that you don't provide any evidence for this claim. In searching, things are hardly conclusive, but these government reports suggest otherwise:
Data for Chart 3.3: Trends in UK food production and for all agricultural output - GOV.UK
UK: food market revenue by segment 2019-2029 | Statista
Over the last two observations, the revenue is forecast to significantly increase in all segments.
www.statista.com
nicko31
Well-known member
Wait till these lovely post-Brexit trade deals kick in fully and import quotas increase to screw over our producers.Is it really? We can all note that you don't provide any evidence for this claim. In searching, things are hardly conclusive, but these government reports suggest otherwise:
Data for Chart 3.3: Trends in UK food production and for all agricultural output - GOV.UK
You’re quite wrong.
Machiavelli
Well-known member
Very good. It does show an upward trajectory, although most of those are forecasts. But that chart is for food revenue whereas you claimed that food production is increasing. So, I'll try again, care to share some evidence that UK food production is increasing?UK: food market revenue by segment 2019-2029 | Statista
Over the last two observations, the revenue is forecast to significantly increase in all segments.
I'm sure you'll be able to help perhaps with some 'alternative facts'.
dsr-burnley
Well-known member
- Aug 15, 2014
- 2,657
It shows more recent historic date than your charts from 2021 and 2020.
As for the confusion between food production in volume terms and food production in monetary terms, your original post was about food production in monetary terms and perhaps I could have been clearer that that was what I was talking about. Sorry that that point got lost along the way.
For the sake of clarity, the total food production in monetary terms is increasing in this country, so if more of it is being exported to non-EU countries and consumed domestically, and less exported to EU countries, I'm not concerned.
Machiavelli
Well-known member
Or this might be the effect of inflation over the past few years, which has been particularly high for food.
- Jul 10, 2003
- 27,818
Would that be this food inflation ?
Brexit food trade barriers have cost UK households £7bn, report finds
British households have paid £7bn since Brexit to cover the extra cost of trade barriers on food imports from the EU, according to researchers at the London School of Economics (LSE). The cost of food in the UK had rocketed by 25% since 2019, the researchers calculated, but if the post-Brexit trade restrictions were not in place then this increase would be only 17% – nearly a third lower.https://www.theguardian.com/politic...iers-have-cost-uk-households-7bn-report-finds
dsr-burnley
Well-known member
- Aug 15, 2014
- 2,657
Why do they complicate things so? If that proves anything, it proves only that prices of certain goods from Europe have increased. It does not prove that people are buying them and losing money as a result. The figures are in fact so counter-intuitive that they probably don't even prove that.
Food inflation costs can be easily obtained. Between March 2000 and March 2023, more or less the period covered, UK food inflation was 24.4%. The EU-wide figure for food inflation was 27.8%. Germany's food inflation was 29.4%, France's was 20.3%.
Obviously covid and the hits to the world's economies has to be considered as the major driver of all this inflation, and I suspect (but haven't got the science to prove it) that France's relatively low figure was because they have much more agricultural land than most and are therefore less exposed to shortages and supply chain failures. But the idea that our inflation rate would have been so many points below the EU's, if only we had been in the EU, is bunk.
Germany Food Inflation
Cost of food in Germany increased 2.07 percent in September of 2024 over the same month in the previous year. This page provides the latest reported value for - Germany Food Inflation - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic...
tradingeconomics.com
France Food Inflation
Cost of food in France increased 0.20 percent in November of 2024 over the same month in the previous year. This page provides the latest reported value for - France Food Inflation - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar...
tradingeconomics.com
- Jul 10, 2003
- 27,818
Why do they complicate things so? If that proves anything, it proves only that prices of certain goods from Europe have increased. It does not prove that people are buying them and losing money as a result. The figures are in fact so counter-intuitive that they probably don't even prove that.
Food inflation costs can be easily obtained. Between March 2000 and March 2023, more or less the period covered, UK food inflation was 24.4%. The EU-wide figure for food inflation was 27.8%. Germany's food inflation was 29.4%, France's was 20.3%.
Obviously covid and the hits to the world's economies has to be considered as the major driver of all this inflation, and I suspect (but haven't got the science to prove it) that France's relatively low figure was because they have much more agricultural land than most and are therefore less exposed to shortages and supply chain failures. But the idea that our inflation rate would have been so many points below the EU's, if only we had been in the EU, is bunk.
Germany Food Inflation
Cost of food in Germany increased 2.07 percent in September of 2024 over the same month in the previous year. This page provides the latest reported value for - Germany Food Inflation - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic...France Food Inflation
Cost of food in France increased 0.20 percent in November of 2024 over the same month in the previous year. This page provides the latest reported value for - France Food Inflation - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar...
So Goldman Sachs and London School of Economics lie about and obfuscate the impact of Brexit on the UK economy
I'm guessing that
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/14/bre...ff-uk-economic-growth-goldman-sachs-says.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ting-the-uk-100-billion-a-year-in-lost-output
https://www.london.gov.uk/new-report-reveals-uk-economy-almost-ps140billion-smaller-because-brexit
https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/the-economy-forecast/brexit-analysis/
are all lying and obfuscating too. Just as well we have a lone Brexit supporting accountant from Burnley to tell us where they are all wrong and why Britain isn't being impacted by Brexit
Crawley Dingo
Political thread tourist.
- Mar 31, 2022
- 1,089
27 nations under an authoritarian inflexible system, the US is a federation for good reason.
Crawley Dingo
Political thread tourist.
- Mar 31, 2022
- 1,089
If you think our problems are due to brexit you are sadly deluded. Serious structural problems and ruled by idiots, now and the previous regimes.
Pavilionaire
Well-known member
- Jul 7, 2003
- 31,288
With all due respect you are talking bollocks.
It is so "authoritarian" that you can leave it as you please, i.e. on a 50%+1 advisory referendum.
It is so "inflexible" that individual countries have opt-outs on issues they consider important. We had 4 of which 2 were on fundamental, core issues - Schengen and European Monetary Union.
- Aug 24, 2020
- 7,228
Not all of our problems are due to Brexit.... but a substantial load of them are....
and millions of people were misled into thinking Brexit was a solution to our problems; they were lied to.
I am pleased you and dsr-burnley have 'found each other' though
Machiavelli
Well-known member
To add, 'authoritarian' regimes generally have armies. The EU doesn't have one, but the 'federal' US has comfortably the largest one in the world.
Crawley Dingo
Political thread tourist.
- Mar 31, 2022
- 1,089
Its called subsidiarity not bollocks and they were more like "never in" rather than opt outs, they are also arguments of why we should never have entered.