[Politics] Brexit

[WATFORD zero]

In 2019, the last full year before we left the EU, our GDP was $122 billion ahead of France's. In 2023, it was $303 billion. Goldman Sachs are arguing it should have been $470 billion.

Goods exports to the EU made up approx 7% of the UK's GDP. Intuitively, it is nonsense that changing the terms and conditions of trade with the EU will cost almost as much as the total value of the goods trade, which has dropped by about 10% (though the general reduction in manufacturing in this country has a lot to do with high energy prices and the general move to service industries as well as Brexit).

If Goldman Sachs want their figures to be believed, by some of us, they could perhaps produce some details so they can be checked.

Or stick them on the side of a bus, that worked well for 'some people' last time

 

[Eric the meek]

I rejected the conclusions without knowing what the detail was. The alternative, of course, would be to ignore the whole survey because we don't know what the detail was. That might be the best option.

You rejected the detail without knowing what it was. You tried to trash the conclusion, based on scant knowledge of the data.

Make the theory fit the data.

Don't start with a theory and then select the data that you think fits it. And then trash all other data that counters your theory.

 

[Machiavelli]

Total food production is increasing. If exports to the EU are reducing, then the difference is either being exported elsewhere or retained in the UK for domestic consumption, so I don't really see how it matters.

Is it really? We can all note that you don't provide any evidence for this claim. In searching, things are hardly conclusive, but these government reports suggest otherwise:

Data for Chart 3.3: Trends in UK food production and for all agricultural output - GOV.UK

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk

United Kingdom Food Security Report 2021: Theme 2: UK Food Supply Sources

www.gov.uk

 

[dsr-burnley]

Is it really? We can all note that you don't provide any evidence for this claim. In searching, things are hardly conclusive, but these government reports suggest otherwise:

Data for Chart 3.3: Trends in UK food production and for all agricultural output - GOV.UK

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk

United Kingdom Food Security Report 2021: Theme 2: UK Food Supply Sources

www.gov.uk

UK: food market revenue by segment 2019-2029 | Statista

Over the last two observations, the revenue is forecast to significantly increase in all segments.

www.statista.com

 

[nicko31]

Is it really? We can all note that you don't provide any evidence for this claim. In searching, things are hardly conclusive, but these government reports suggest otherwise:

Data for Chart 3.3: Trends in UK food production and for all agricultural output - GOV.UK

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk

United Kingdom Food Security Report 2021: Theme 2: UK Food Supply Sources

www.gov.uk

Wait till these lovely post-Brexit trade deals kick in fully and import quotas increase to screw over our producers.

 

[A1X]

Yes, that's right Dingo. That nice Nigel Farage stood outside parliament on 24 June 2016 and said that it would collapse like a line of dominos now the public has woken up (aka gone woke). Remind us of how many countries have left the EU since.

 

[The Clamp]

I'snt the EU falling apart with France and Germany turning into basket cases? Falling even farther behind the US with over regulation and growing social unrest?

Yes lets rejoin the basket case club rather than developing some sane economic policies.

You’re quite wrong.

 

[Machiavelli]

UK: food market revenue by segment 2019-2029 | Statista

Over the last two observations, the revenue is forecast to significantly increase in all segments.

www.statista.com

Very good. It does show an upward trajectory, although most of those are forecasts. But that chart is for food revenue whereas you claimed that food production is increasing. So, I'll try again, care to share some evidence that UK food production is increasing?
I'm sure you'll be able to help perhaps with some 'alternative facts'.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Very good. It does show an upward trajectory, although most of those are forecasts. But that chart is for food revenue whereas you claimed that food production is increasing. So, I'll try again, care to share some evidence that UK food production is increasing?
I'm sure you'll be able to help perhaps with some 'alternative facts'.

It shows more recent historic date than your charts from 2021 and 2020.

As for the confusion between food production in volume terms and food production in monetary terms, your original post was about food production in monetary terms and perhaps I could have been clearer that that was what I was talking about. Sorry that that point got lost along the way.

For the sake of clarity, the total food production in monetary terms is increasing in this country, so if more of it is being exported to non-EU countries and consumed domestically, and less exported to EU countries, I'm not concerned.

 

[Machiavelli]

It shows more recent historic date than your charts from 2021 and 2020.

As for the confusion between food production in volume terms and food production in monetary terms, your original post was about food production in monetary terms and perhaps I could have been clearer that that was what I was talking about. Sorry that that point got lost along the way.

For the sake of clarity, the total food production in monetary terms is increasing in this country, so if more of it is being exported to non-EU countries and consumed domestically, and less exported to EU countries, I'm not concerned.

Or this might be the effect of inflation over the past few years, which has been particularly high for food.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Or this might be the effect of inflation over the past few years, which has been particularly high for food.

Would that be this food inflation ?

Brexit food trade barriers have cost UK households £7bn, report finds​

British households have paid £7bn since Brexit to cover the extra cost of trade barriers on food imports from the EU, according to researchers at the London School of Economics (LSE). The cost of food in the UK had rocketed by 25% since 2019, the researchers calculated, but if the post-Brexit trade restrictions were not in place then this increase would be only 17% – nearly a third lower.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...iers-have-cost-uk-households-7bn-report-finds

 

[dsr-burnley]

Would that be this food inflation ?

Brexit food trade barriers have cost UK households £7bn, report finds​

British households have paid £7bn since Brexit to cover the extra cost of trade barriers on food imports from the EU, according to researchers at the London School of Economics (LSE). The cost of food in the UK had rocketed by 25% since 2019, the researchers calculated, but if the post-Brexit trade restrictions were not in place then this increase would be only 17% – nearly a third lower.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...iers-have-cost-uk-households-7bn-report-finds

Why do they complicate things so? If that proves anything, it proves only that prices of certain goods from Europe have increased. It does not prove that people are buying them and losing money as a result. The figures are in fact so counter-intuitive that they probably don't even prove that.

Food inflation costs can be easily obtained. Between March 2000 and March 2023, more or less the period covered, UK food inflation was 24.4%. The EU-wide figure for food inflation was 27.8%. Germany's food inflation was 29.4%, France's was 20.3%.

Obviously covid and the hits to the world's economies has to be considered as the major driver of all this inflation, and I suspect (but haven't got the science to prove it) that France's relatively low figure was because they have much more agricultural land than most and are therefore less exposed to shortages and supply chain failures. But the idea that our inflation rate would have been so many points below the EU's, if only we had been in the EU, is bunk.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/537050/uk-inflation-rate-food-in-united-kingdom/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/680184/inflation-rate-food-in-european-union-eu/

Germany Food Inflation

Cost of food in Germany increased 2.07 percent in September of 2024 over the same month in the previous year. This page provides the latest reported value for - Germany Food Inflation - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic...

tradingeconomics.com

France Food Inflation

Cost of food in France increased 0.20 percent in November of 2024 over the same month in the previous year. This page provides the latest reported value for - France Food Inflation - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar...

tradingeconomics.com

 

[WATFORD zero]

Why do they complicate things so? If that proves anything, it proves only that prices of certain goods from Europe have increased. It does not prove that people are buying them and losing money as a result. The figures are in fact so counter-intuitive that they probably don't even prove that.

Food inflation costs can be easily obtained. Between March 2000 and March 2023, more or less the period covered, UK food inflation was 24.4%. The EU-wide figure for food inflation was 27.8%. Germany's food inflation was 29.4%, France's was 20.3%.

Obviously covid and the hits to the world's economies has to be considered as the major driver of all this inflation, and I suspect (but haven't got the science to prove it) that France's relatively low figure was because they have much more agricultural land than most and are therefore less exposed to shortages and supply chain failures. But the idea that our inflation rate would have been so many points below the EU's, if only we had been in the EU, is bunk.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/537050/uk-inflation-rate-food-in-united-kingdom/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/680184/inflation-rate-food-in-european-union-eu/

Germany Food Inflation

Cost of food in Germany increased 2.07 percent in September of 2024 over the same month in the previous year. This page provides the latest reported value for - Germany Food Inflation - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic...

tradingeconomics.com

France Food Inflation

Cost of food in France increased 0.20 percent in November of 2024 over the same month in the previous year. This page provides the latest reported value for - France Food Inflation - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar...

tradingeconomics.com

So Goldman Sachs and London School of Economics lie about and obfuscate the impact of Brexit on the UK economy

I'm guessing that

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/14/bre...ff-uk-economic-growth-goldman-sachs-says.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ting-the-uk-100-billion-a-year-in-lost-output
https://www.london.gov.uk/new-report-reveals-uk-economy-almost-ps140billion-smaller-because-brexit
https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/the-economy-forecast/brexit-analysis/

are all lying and obfuscating too. Just as well we have a lone Brexit supporting accountant from Burnley to tell us where they are all wrong and why Britain isn't being impacted by Brexit

 

[Crawley Dingo]

Whisper it quietly, but the truth is France and Germany loved the UK being in the EU because it gave the EU a bigger market and broader reach, and now that we are out dark forces are at work re Frexit and Dexit.

It was an incredible achievement for peace and prosperity to bring 27 nations together under one banner. Now, there is nothing Russia and China would like better for it to fragment into individual nation states with individual currencies.

Ukraine, Georgia, Turkey would love EU membership. I can unduerstand why.

27 nations under an authoritarian inflexible system, the US is a federation for good reason.

 

[Crawley Dingo]

Apparently the EU has been in imminent danger of falling apart for the past 3084 days. Haven't you got a bit tired of waiting in Crawley?
On the other hand our great country has taken hit after hit over the same period of time. Haven't you got bored of your vacuous rallying cry?
and....

Shouldn't we be in the sunny uplands by now anyway?

Adjust your mindset; you are the basket case.

If you think our problems are due to brexit you are sadly deluded. Serious structural problems and ruled by idiots, now and the previous regimes.

 

[Pavilionaire]

27 nations under an authoritarian inflexible system, the US is a federation for good reason.

With all due respect you are talking bollocks.

It is so "authoritarian" that you can leave it as you please, i.e. on a 50%+1 advisory referendum.

It is so "inflexible" that individual countries have opt-outs on issues they consider important. We had 4 of which 2 were on fundamental, core issues - Schengen and European Monetary Union.

 

[Eric the meek]

 

[Lever]

If you think our problems are due to brexit you are sadly deluded. Serious structural problems and ruled by idiots, now and the previous regimes.

Not all of our problems are due to Brexit.... but a substantial load of them are....

and millions of people were misled into thinking Brexit was a solution to our problems; they were lied to.

I am pleased you and dsr-burnley have 'found each other' though

 

[Machiavelli]

With all due respect you are talking bollocks.

It is so "authoritarian" that you can leave it as you please, i.e. on a 50%+1 advisory referendum.

It is so "inflexible" that individual countries have opt-outs on issues they consider important. We had 4 of which 2 were on fundamental, core issues - Schengen and European Monetary Union.

To add, 'authoritarian' regimes generally have armies. The EU doesn't have one, but the 'federal' US has comfortably the largest one in the world.

 

[Crawley Dingo]

With all due respect you are talking bollocks.

Its called subsidiarity not bollocks and they were more like "never in" rather than opt outs, they are also arguments of why we should never have entered.