Which is utterly insane, given 538 has had Kamala Harris ahead for the ENTIRE race. Trump hasn't been ahead in poll of polls at any point in the race. Not even once.
[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*
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Motogull
Todd Warrior
- Sep 16, 2005
- 10,476
I expect that was the only waffle and the other 2 hours 55 minutes was deeply insightful and inspirational.
He comes out with some strange shit but that was bordering on homoeroticism.
Yup, Trump'll fix it. I fully expect MAGA medals next.
I thought you might be pissed off not drunk on that. Not sure why I bothered given I am probably on your ignore list but hey ho.
It'll be interesting if they turn out to be potential Republican voters
Crawley Dingo
Political thread tourist.
- Mar 31, 2022
- 1,080
Depends how you look at it, if its individualism to collectivism Kier Starmer and Hitler are holding hands.
Crawley Dingo
Political thread tourist.
- Mar 31, 2022
- 1,080
No not yet.
nwgull
Well-known member
Answer me this honestly: are you prepared to put a decent wedge of cash on that? With Harris available at 2.7 on the exchanges, it would seem to be a no-brainer for a 2-horse race that you’re that confident about.
After reading about the Republican's Puerto Rico faux pas - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgj7689v757o - I headed to Oddschecker to see what the curnend odds are.
My positive mood soon soured when I saw how short-priced Trump is currently.
I know some don't see any merit in betting markets, but they absolutely do provide the best guide on probability available to us.
Probability is all it is, of course, but the current odds give Trump twice the chance of winning of Harris, and that is utterly depressing.
My positive mood soon soured when I saw how short-priced Trump is currently.
I know some don't see any merit in betting markets, but they absolutely do provide the best guide on probability available to us.
Probability is all it is, of course, but the current odds give Trump twice the chance of winning of Harris, and that is utterly depressing.
They whine and gripe and maybe try a rally that turns to violence and hurt people that are charged with upholding the law but I truly feel this movement will die out and lose power. Much like the Ku Klux Klan of the 1920s. They were extremely powerful during that time but eventually that movement died down to a much much smaller number.
I've no confidence at all and would put no money on this election.
Eh. He was turned down because he wanted to do 3 hours and she didn't want to travel to him
I think it's fair he wants the same time for both for fairness , but it's no real loss for her either
Seagull58
In the Algarve
His ground game also includes voter suppression and ballot destruction in swing states.
US Seagull
Well-known member
I definitely think it will not live on past the end of Trump (whatever "end" means here). Trump is a black swan event. Many others will (and already have) try to inherit the MAGA crown, but they don't have the savant-like skill of Trump to dominate the media, get away with stuff that would sink dozens of political careers and command irrational, cult-like loyalty.
People like DeSantis tried to be "Trump without the baggage", but instead of seizing a movement, he just looked like a massive asshole.
Seagull58
In the Algarve
Musk and his fascist mates are throwing millions at the markets to move the odds.
For the most part DeSantis still acts like a massive arsehole. He just withdrew from the race for the Republican nomination for US president in 2024.
Isn't it largely based on how much money is being put on each candidate?
Pretty pertinent given the exact picture that MAGA side is trying to paint, of them somehow losing an election they were winning BIGLY in?
Surely the best thing to look at is ACTUAL turn out, which looks very positive so far?
You genuinely believe Trump has a 66% chance of winning despite NEVER being in front of Harris in the poll of polls? Really?
I would strongly debate the part in bold.
Seagull58
In the Algarve
I have a Betfair account and a skyBet account with some funds in it, so I'll take a look at the odds and see.
How much money has been placed?
Given the strategy for the Trump campaign is to claim he's winning, would it not be worth Musk placing large bets to affect the odds?
The odds swung a huge amount quickly. The only indication people can have for whether he'll win is checking the polls. Have independent polls swung in his favour?
This.
There does not appear to be another logical reason why Trump has suddenly swung in the polls recently - there was no event causing it?
There's definitely a lot of fuckery afoot.
Trump supporters seem to be saying as they are not as far behind as 2020 it's a positive sign.
Which seems mental from the outside